Despite low turnout interesting races abound

Turnout for the 2010 primary is expected to be very light and that should not surprise anyone. The competitive races at the top of the ticket that typically drive voters to the polls in elections just aren't there this time around. The race for governor is an all general election affair, unlike the less sexy offices of treasurer and auditor . People are still clinging to the haze of summer even though Labor Day has come and gone. Unless you're a political junkie you're probably just starting to pay attention to the campaigns.

Come November the turnout will be much higher because there is a four-way race for governor , competitive races all the way down the ballot, dozens of open seats in the state legislature, and three ballot questions that will receive significant attention from well- financed supporters and opponents. On the federal side, pending the well- financed candidates win today, at least three congressional districts, 10th, 5th, and 6th, will be somewhat competitive races. The races in the 9th and 4th are interesting but they won't be very competitive.

The 10th
The only open seat in the race is seen as the one most likely to change parties because of the changing demographics and political persuasions of the district. The 10th Congressional District, like much of the South Shore, has turned more conservative in the last decade. Scott Brown carried the entire district with the exception of the tip of Cape Cod and the Islands. The dirtiest primary in the Commonwealth will see Jeff Perry and Bill Keating emerge to face off in the general election. If Perry wins in November he'll be the first Republican to hold the seat since redistricting.

The 9th
Mac D'Alessandro has run a cute campaign and ruffled some feathers but he isn't going to win. The 9th Congressional District is Stephen Lynch's until he gives up the seat or dies. Lynch is a union ironworker born and raised in the Old Colony Projects. D'Alessandro is a liberal activist blow-in from Chicago. On the Republican side neither Keith Lepor (the likely winner) nor Vernon Harrison stand a chance against Lynch. "New Boston" may be on the rise but they still don't vote the way "Old Boston" does.

The 6th
Bill Hudak, despite the rocky road he faced early on with allegations of birtherism and kookiness appears to have turned it around. He benefited from dealing with those allegations earlier on when nobody was paying attention. He has also benefited from strong fundraising and self financing. His primary opponent, Rob McCarthy, Jr., has been a non-factor in the race. Hudak, who will face incumbent John Tierney in the general, will have his work cut out for him but in this volatile tea party year he stands a decent chance of toppling him.

The 5th
Sam Meas has a great story but he's just not ready for primetime. Look for Jon Golnik to win the primary in this race and give Niki Tsongas a serious challenge. Republicans are still smarting from losing this seat in the 2007 special election. After the 10th this is the next most likely seat Republicans will pick up in Massachusetts.

The 4th
Sean Bielat is an interesting candidate and has some national recognition but his chances of defeating Barney Frank are slim. Bielat has attracted the attention of national conservatives because he is facing Frank and is a Marine. A great storyline for national conservatives who loathe Frank but that's about it. Frank brings home the money for his district and in his debate with LaRoucher Rachel "Nuclear rockets to Mars" Brown he sounded very in touch with the needs of his strangely shaped district. At least Bielat vs Frank will be more interesting than a repeat of the boring Frank vs Earl Sholley races.