The biggest race in the state will go to the incumbent, Governor Deval Patrick, but not by much. His Republican challenger, Charlie Baker, just didn't have enough in the tank to beat Patrick. He failed to effectively target Patrick and instead the Republicans had a scatterbrained attack against him. Plus, the Republicans hurt themselves by focusing on Tim Cahill's candidacy, though they didn't have a choice. Cahill really hurt the Republicans and that is a fact, it is appropriate to call him a spoiler. If you're voting for Cahill I don't blame you. He's a nice guy and the only candidate to have run a mostly positive and upbeat campaign.
The incumbent, Martha Coakley, wins this race easily because she's running for A.G. and not U.S. Senator. She's transformed herself from the cold woman we were all blessed to be around in January. Her Republican challenger and first-time candidate, Jim McKenna, made the ballot in a historic way and should be commended for that but his debate performances showed he is not ready for prime time.
Massachusetts will elect its first Republican treasurer since Joe Malone when Karyn Polito squeaks out a win. She'll win because of her strong support on the North Shore and will draw heavily on Reagan Democrats.
Another first: Massachusetts will elect its first female auditor today and it will be Mary Z. Connaughton. She has several things going for her: name recognition from her work at the Turnpike, the Boston Herald, and multiple radio appearances. Her middle initial is huge because voters remember things like that. Oh and she is extremely qualified and likable.
Secretary of State
Bill Galvin wins in a landslide like usual, if he has time to vote.
Question 1 - Passes
Question 2 - Fails, it's too complicated.
Question 3 - Fails, but I think it's close. If it cut the tax to 5% instead of 3% I think it wins.
The only Republicans I see having a real chance at winning are Jon Golnik in the Fifth Congressional District and Jeff Perry in the Tenth Congressional District. The third-party candidates in the Tenth may upend things though and we may even see a recount in that nasty race. Democrats sweat it out in the other races, particularly the Sixth and Fourth, but come out on top statewide.
State House: Republicans pickup 10-12 seats. Paul Adams, Ryan Fattman, Rhonda Nyman, and Brett Schetzsle all win.
State Senate: Republicans lose the Richard Tisei seat everything else stays the same.
US House: Republican pickup of 65 seats
US Senate: Republican pickup of 8 seats
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