Why Obama is Winning

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from andiejen. Show andiejen's posts

    Why Obama is Winning

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/09/09/niall-ferguson-why-is-obama-winning.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=cheatsheet_afternoon&cid=newsletter%3Bemail%3Bcheatsheet_afternoon&utm_term=Cheat%20Sheet

    The above article, written by Niall Ferguson of Newsweek, has some very interesting ideas on why Obama is leading, going against a great deal of conventional political wisdom.

    He gives many explanations. Sums up the whole thing with that unlike in Clinton's time, this time it is not the economy, stupid.

    For those of you wondering why Romney cannot get more traction despite some rather dismal economic numbers, I think this writer has several valid ideas worth discussing.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from skeeter20. Show skeeter20's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    In response to andiejen's comment:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/09/09/niall-ferguson-why-is-obama-winning.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=cheatsheet_afternoon&cid=newsletter%3Bemail%3Bcheatsheet_afternoon&utm_term=Cheat%20Sheet

    The above article, written by Niall Ferguson of Newsweek, has some very interesting ideas on why Obama is leading, going against a great deal of conventional political wisdom.

    He gives many explanations. Sums up the whole thing with that unlike in Clinton's time, this time it is not the economy, stupid.

    For those of you wondering why Romney cannot get more traction despite some rather dismal economic numbers, I think this writer has several valid ideas worth discussing.



    Interesting article.  It boils down to a) people are stupid, or b) people are lying.

    I have another explanation.  The mainstream media has such bias that it have rendered them incapable of presenting the facts properly.  Most of the polls I have seen grossly over sample democrats, for example.  Also consider that Romney really isn't running as much as he is countring on Obama losing.  As I have said before, risky strategy.  But also consider if Romney gives any specifics on anything, i.e. starts to run a campaign of ideas, the biased press will evicerate him no matter what he says.  The mainstream media is intent on making this a race based on not Obama's record, but small things like contraception and abortion.

    I think it is a fair assumption that the current lead by Obama is the 4-6 points that pollsters assign to the bias in the media. 

    If Romney wakes up and runs, things will be different.  Maybe better, maybe worse, but different.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BilltheKat. Show BilltheKat's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    But also consider if Romney gives any specifics on anything, i.e. starts to run a campaign of ideas

    You can stop right there.
    He's only got a couple of months to actually come up with any substance. But he's too much of an empty suit. Things haven't changed from when he was the gov.


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from skeeter20. Show skeeter20's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    In response to BilltheKat's comment:

    But also consider if Romney gives any specifics on anything, i.e. starts to run a campaign of ideas

    You can stop right there.
    He's only got a couple of months to actually come up with any substance. But he's too much of an empty suit. Things haven't changed from when he was the gov.




    I wince, but iI agree.

    however, he is better than Obama.  Look at what Obama has done in four years:

    There are more poor, fewer people working, massive debt spending with no results.  There is no logical reason to vote for Obama on those facts/results alone.

    Agree?
     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from andiejen. Show andiejen's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    In response to skeeter20's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BilltheKat's comment:

    But also consider if Romney gives any specifics on anything, i.e. starts to run a campaign of ideas

    You can stop right there.
    He's only got a couple of months to actually come up with any substance. But he's too much of an empty suit. Things haven't changed from when he was the gov.




    I wince, but iI agree.

    however, he is better than Obama.  Look at what Obama has done in four years:

    There are more poor, fewer people working, massive debt spending with no results.  There is no logical reason to vote for Obama on those facts/results alone.

    Agree?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    skeeter,

    The writer concedes that given many of economic factors, Romney should be gaining traction over Obama. He then tries to find explanations for why this is not happening.

    Of course, people could be lying to pollsters. Setting that aside, I found it compelling that perhaps people are deciding to vote prospectively...not retrospectively. Not are you better than you were 4 years ago, but who do you think you will be better with in 4 years.

    Also, many women are afraid of the Romney-Ryan ticket. 

    In addtion, though many list the economy as their number one issue, it really is not. More people are comfortable with Obama than Romney. 

    As the writer said, across the pond, Obama would lose. But not here. And for one reason, this time it is not just the economy.
     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Firewind. Show Firewind's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    Another factor to consider:  Mr. Obama has pushed ahead in a poll taken during and right after the same news cycle as the "...2016" hit piece.  Though it may take a while for it to factor in.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from miscricket. Show miscricket's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    [/QUOTE]

    skeeter,

    The writer concedes that given many of economic factors, Romney should be gaining traction over Obama. He then tries to find explanations for why this is not happening.

    Of course, people could be lying to pollsters. Setting that aside, I found it compelling that perhaps people are deciding to vote prospectively...not retrospectively. Not are you better than you were 4 years ago, but who do you think you will be better with in 4 years.

    Also, many women are afraid of the Romney-Ryan ticket. 

    In addtion, though many list the economy as their number one issue, it really is not. More people are comfortable with Obama than Romney. 

    As the writer said, across the pond, Obama would lose. But not here. And for one reason, this time it is not just the economy.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Nice post Andie.  First...to comment on Skeeter's previous comment..Romney has essentially been running for President for almost 8 years. If he wanted to talk specifics, we'd be hearing about them. The fact is..he is already backtracking on the foundation of his platform- repeal and replace Obamacare.  This is the only specific thing he has said he will do and now he is even backing away from that.

    I come from a family of die hard Republicans. As independents, my son and I are considered the liberals of the family. However, this year, the women in my family have all expressed concern about the direction the Republican party is taking.  My female friends and coworkers have no use for the Republican party any more. Many of them say..and I agree..that even Ronald Reagan would not be welcome in this party.

    You raise a good point about the economy vs. likeability. People are getting back to work. The job sites have more listings than they did a year ago..and jobs are being added.  Even Romney himself admitted that economic recovery is going to take more like 8 years.

    It also comes down to a matter of trust. At the end of the day..do you trust the guy in office..? Or do you trust the guy who changes positions and views depending on his audience?
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from miscricket. Show miscricket's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    Also wanted to add that when you have someone like Romney, who won't tell us specifics..then what you have to do is look at his record. The only poltical record he has is Governor of Massachusetts. 47th in the nation in job creation..cut taxes..but raised fees and no one felt the pain more than small business.
     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sistersledge. Show Sistersledge's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    After hearing romney stating that he would appoint judges who would overturn Roe v Wade I wondered why the SCOTUS doesn't overturn it now. They have enough conservatives on the court .

    I know why.  If they did that they would lose a wedge issue that they can always use to con that one issue voter out to support their lousy candidates.
     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from andiejen. Show andiejen's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    In response to Sistersledge's comment:

    After hearing romney stating that he would appoint judges who would overturn Roe v Wade I wondered why the SCOTUS doesn't overturn it now. They have enough conservatives on the court .

    I know why.  If they did that they would lose a wedge issue that they can always use to con that one issue voter out to support their lousy candidates.



    Hey Sister,

    Great point! Roe is a huge issue for many voters. It is in fact their litmus test for every candidate who asks for their vote. If you are campaigning for someone, the first thing they want to know is if your candidate is pro life or pro choice. If you cannot answer pro life, they do not care what else your candidate is about.

    This gets to the ridiculous. You may be helping someone run for selectmen in your town. Of course they have no power to do anything about Roe. As a volunteer, you probably do not know their position on Roe. But a voter will pound you for an answer. 

    At this point if you are smart, you say thank you for your time and move on. 

    Sister, you are so right that Roe is a divisive wedge issue.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from andiejen. Show andiejen's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    In response to TFefio's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to miscricket's comment:

    Also wanted to add that when you have someone like Romney, who won't tell us specifics..then what you have to do is look at his record. The only poltical record he has is Governor of Massachusetts. 47th in the nation in job creation..cut taxes..but raised fees and no one felt the pain more than small business.



    Gee, Obama has been our president for four years and I still can't tell you what his specifics are other than awar on god and free birth control pills. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    TFefio,

    As skeeter posted above, Romney really is not running so much but counting on Obama to lose. Hence, we do not really know much of anything he is running on except he wants to be the President.

    As Bill pointed out, with less than 2 months to go, this is a pretty risky strategy. 
     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from andiejen. Show andiejen's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Sistersledge's comment:

    After hearing romney stating that he would appoint judges who would overturn Roe v Wade I wondered why the SCOTUS doesn't overturn it now. They have enough conservatives on the court .







    Really? Who are the conservative judges?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pink,

    Since Sister may be fighting a fire or something else that requires his attention, may I answer your question for him.

    Of the current 9 members of the Supreme Court, 5 fall into the conservative category. 

    Chief Justice Roberts, as well as Justics Alito, Kennedy, Scalia and Thomas.

    The other 4 Justices are deemed to be left of center.  

    The great majority of the decisions of this Court have come down 5-4, along these lines. A major exception, of course, was in June, when Chief Justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion in joining with the 4 more liberal justices when Obamacare was challenged.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from andiejen. Show andiejen's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to andiejen's comment:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/09/09/niall-ferguson-why-is-obama-winning.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=cheatsheet_afternoon&cid=newsletter%3Bemail%3Bcheatsheet_afternoon&utm_term=Cheat%20Sheet

    Why Obama is Winning?



    Um....he's the incumbent.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pink,

    Being the incumbent would normally work against Obama under the current economic comditions. Voters tend to blame or praise the President far too much for the state of the economy.

    We are experiencing a soft recovery. Individual numbers such as unemploment, private sector jobs created, etc., are not great. And yet Obama is leading in the polls, even the polls that tend to be right of center.

    So no, if anything, being the incumbent should be hurting him and helping Romney. Something Romney and his aides were using as a strategy. Banking on Obama to lose...not so much having to run for Romney to win.

    But with less than 60 days to go, that is not working. Romney either needs to start running or this will probably not turn around for him. 
     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from andiejen. Show andiejen's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    In response to TFefio's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to andiejen's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to TFefio's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to miscricket's comment:

    Also wanted to add that when you have someone like Romney, who won't tell us specifics..then what you have to do is look at his record. The only poltical record he has is Governor of Massachusetts. 47th in the nation in job creation..cut taxes..but raised fees and no one felt the pain more than small business.



    Gee, Obama has been our president for four years and I still can't tell you what his specifics are other than awar on god and free birth control pills. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    TFefio,

    As skeeter posted above, Romney really is not running so much but counting on Obama to lose. Hence, we do not really know much of anything he is running on except he wants to be the President.

    As Bill pointed out, with less than 2 months to go, this is a pretty risky strategy. 

     

    [/QUOTE]Now you know that is simply not true. In 2008 Obama was going to slow the rise of the oceans andheal the planet. We all know all he did was ruin the economy further than when he found it. Romney wants to focus on creating jobs and encourage small business, not wage war against it as obama has pledged to do in his " you didn't build that rant" Thats why I'm voting for Romney. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    TFefio,

    A lot of economists have stated that Obama prevented us from falling into a Depression as you well know at the beginning of his Presidency.

    As of late, I have read article after article regarding where the general stands. The gist of them include the opinion that nobody really knows what Romney stands for. He got the nomination by satisfying the GOP base. But you cannot win the general with the same rhetoric. That is not going to get him the independents in the 5-6 swing states that he needs. 

    Right now Ohio is in jeopardy for him. If he does not win Ohio, doing electoral math, Romney would have to win the rest of the swing states to win the general.

    MA of course is not a swing state. It is going to Obama. The voters here will not influence the end result of this Presidential election.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from andiejen. Show andiejen's posts

    Re: Why Obama is Winning

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to andiejen's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to WhichOnesPink2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Sistersledge's comment:

    After hearing romney stating that he would appoint judges who would overturn Roe v Wade I wondered why the SCOTUS doesn't overturn it now. They have enough conservatives on the court .







    Really? Who are the conservative judges?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pink,

    Since Sister may be fighting a fire or something else that requires his attention, may I answer your question for him.

    Of the current 9 members of the Supreme Court, 5 fall into the conservative category. 

    Chief Justice Roberts, as well as Justics Alito, Kennedy, Scalia and Thomas.

    The other 4 Justices are deemed to be left of center.  

    The great majority of the decisions of this Court have come down 5-4, along these lines. A major exception, of course, was in June, when Chief Justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion in joining with the 4 more liberal justices when Obamacare was challenged.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Kennedy is known as the swing Justice. In fact many conservatives have been upset with him for not always voting with the conservative wing. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pink,

    Yes, I am aware of that. Kennedy is soft spoken and has been a surprise at times to conservatives. He is not a hard core conservative as say Scalia and Thomas are.

    Roberts many feel is already thinking about the legacy of the Roberts court. That he is quite dismayed with the number of 5-4 decisions his court has produced. This fact may have played a big role in him switching sides, so to say, in the big June healthcare decision.
     

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