Re: Montreal Gazette: Burke asks Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin to 'retire'
posted at 5/31/2010 8:54 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Montreal Gazette: Burke asks Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin to 'retire'
Saying 2nd round picks are a roll of the dice is not necessarily true actually the have a better than average shot at being serviceable nhl players.
Posted by john6345
I found this on Fanhouse:
Here's a look at the numbers between 1998 (when the league expanded to 28 teams, and, eventually, to the 30 teams we see today) and 2005.
-- 167 of the 274 players taken played at least one game in the NHL (60 percent).
-- 67 played at least 100 games (24 percent)
-- Of the 251 skaters taken, 110 scored at least one goal, while only 18 (to this point) have scored more than 50. http://nhl.fanhouse.com/2010/03/02/the-odds-of-finding-an-nhl-player-with-a-second-round-pick/
I'd say that's a crapshoot.
Here's another look. It's a bit skewed because it's from the time when there were only 21 teams, so early second round picks then would be late first round picks now:
Between 1990 and 2005 there were 472 players selected in the second round of the NHL draft.
-- 312 of the 472 players selected played at least one game in the NHL, 66 percent.
-- 146 of the 472 players at least 100 games (31 percent).
-- There were 434 skaters (forwards and defenseman) selected during this time period, with 218 of them scoring at least one goal. Only 59 have have scored more than 50 goals in their careers (just under 14 percent).
Still, if only 14% are going to get 50 goals in their career, that's a not better than average odds to me.