Re: Ryder this year
posted at 7/12/2010 12:51 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Ryder this year
In Response to Re: Ryder this year : I disagree with you, Drew. Yes, the sample is one, but if that sample of one is not enough data, to suggest he'll have a better year because it's a contract year is also incorrect due to not enough data.
Posted by Not-A-Shot
I think the arguement is this:
Side A: Ryder will have a better year because player's tend to find motivation when they are UFA's.
Strength of arguement: Its based off a huge sample (every UFA ever)
Weakness of arguement: Its an assumption based on generalized data and not specific to ryder himself. There have also been countless exceptions.
Side B: The fact that he is an upcoming UFA will have no impact on ryder because he stunk last time he was in said situation
Strengths: its specific to ryder himself
Weakness: tiny sample
The problem w tiny samples is they overlook the impact of irrelevant variables (in larger samples these variables tend to wash due to the law of averages). So while Ryder did not succeed last time he was a UFA, it could have been because he was egotistical then (he may have matured since), he could have been going through a divorce (been unfocused), he could have had a newborn (lack of sleep), he could have had sleep apnea....Small samples are too easily swayed by variables that may no longer be present.
But you are correct in the sense that if you are going to point out the weakness in side B, you cant overlook the weakness in side A if you wish to remain objective.
The conclusion is pretty simple. Neither side a nor side b can be overly confident in their prediction re: how ryder will do this year.