Re: A few Stanley Cup facts
posted at 4/8/2011 11:38 AM EDT
In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts
[QUOTE]If they played the playoffs 1000 times, all of the anomolies would regress into a very small percentage. #1 seeds would have the best chance of winning followed in sequence to the #8 seed with the lowest chance. Hangnail is right, the 16 teams do not have equal odds over the long term. Still, all the teams have longshot odds to actually win it, so only a fool like 40 yrs would think that any given team 'should' win. All 16 teams shouldn't win, based on their odds. But one team will buck the odds and do it.
Posted by Fletcher1[/QUOTE]
1000 times the players would all be as old as Rec.
The anomolies is what remains constant, every year is different, this is not the NHL of old where a team stayed together and repeated, 3 peated or even the drive for 5. Not any team should win, previously a team with 100 plus points were far superior, now with league parity and the stupid 3 point games teams are now closer, there is not as much separation.
There are 24 teams at .500 or better and a 25th NJ is 1 game below .500, at one time this assured you a playoff spot, now you have to have 40 wins be a +10 in wins to make the playoffs while battling scheduling and injuries. The cap has made teams more comparable and the 3 point games have kept teams closer. This parity means teams, do really have a shot at the cup in 8th as opposed to being 8th 25 years ago and this parity will become even closer if all teams spend to the cap year after year.
The league has provisioned the salary cap to allow for stars to make more, so it will come down to can the stars compensate for salary cap, so far Det and Pit have, Chi did but then had to dismantle.
Bos has the cap filled, just not sure if the star status has been met. Will depend on Luc Krej Hort Kab and how they play in the playoffs with Berg and Z.
We still have a 1 in 16 to win mathematically and 1 in 2 in the first round.
Throw in your ANOMILIES and we are probably rated top 6, which is about 16% as opposed to 6%. To start the season we were at odds of 20-1.
So I looked up
Start to Season Now
Van 12-1 3-1
Was 6-1 6-1
Phi 12-1 7-1
Bos 20-1 8-1 betwen top 6 and 16 for 12.5% chance
SJ 9-1 8-1
Det 8-1 8-1
Pit 6-1 12-1
TB 45-1 18-1
Chi 5-1 18-1
LA 15-1 25-1
ANA 30-1 30-1
PHO 35-1 30-1
NYR BUF MON NAS are all at 35-1
DAl and Car are at 75-1, they are still outside looking in.
Bos is the most improved team compared to last year's playoff roster for game 7 Philly, I believe they have a date for destiny if they can get past the habnot anomolie which has nothing to do wit hockey in the 1st round.
They will meet the Sharks if they can get past their own anomolie of Anaheim.