A few Stanley Cup facts

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hangnail. Show hangnail's posts

    A few Stanley Cup facts

    Looking back since the league went to an 82 game schedule in '92-'93, here are a few facts:

    - Of the 17 Stanley Cups awarded, 12 have gone to either a #1 or #2 seed.

    - A #3 seed has won it once

    - A #4 seed has won it twice; and a #5 seed has won it twice

    - No team seeded 6th or lower has won it

    - Only 2 teams have won the Stanley Cup with less than 100 regular season    points ('09 Pens w/99 pts. and '97 Wings w/94 pts.)

    What does this mean going forward??  Not a damn thing but I can't wait til next week!
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jmwalters. Show jmwalters's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    I know, the old saying "you just need to get in then anyone can win it" is not supported by the facts. The odds are probably the same as the lottery in some cases...lol!!

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]Looking back since the league went to an 82 game schedule in '92-'93, here are a few facts: - Of the 17 Stanley Cups awarded, 12 have gone to either a #1 or #2 seed. - A #3 seed has won it once - A #4 seed has won it twice; and a #5 seed has won it twice - No team seeded 6th or lower has won it - Only 2 teams have won the Stanley Cup with less than 100 regular season    points ('09 Pens w/99 pts. and '97 Wings w/94 pts.) What does this mean going forward??  Not a damn thing but I can't wait til next week!
    Posted by hangnail[/QUOTE]


    What about simply making it to the Cup finals?  What seed were the Flyers last year?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hangnail. Show hangnail's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]In Response to A few Stanley Cup facts : What about simply making it to the Cup finals?  What seed were the Flyers last year?
    Posted by BadHabitude[/QUOTE]

    Good point BadHab and here it is:

    Of those 17 Stanley Cup losers:

    - 2 were #1 seeds

    - 4 were #2 seeds

    - 1 was a #3 seed

    - 3 were #4 seeds

    - 1 was a #5 seed; 1 was a #6 seed

    - 4 were a #7 seed

    - and 1 was a #8 seed ('06 Oilers, the Canes are still thanking their lucky stars)

    I'll also add that when the Scabs last won it in '93, they were a 5 seed, beating another 5 seed in LA who had a whopping 88 regular season points.  So I would have to put an asterisk next to that Habs victory!

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BadHabitude. Show BadHabitude's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts : Good point BadHab and here it is: Of those 17 Stanley Cup losers: - 2 were #1 seeds - 4 were #2 seeds - 1 was a #3 seed - 3 were #4 seeds - 1 was a #5 seed; 1 was a #6 seed - 4 were a #7 seed - and 1 was a #8 seed ('06 Oilers, the Canes are still thanking their lucky stars) I'll also add that when the Scabs last won it in '93, they were a 5 seed, beating another 5 seed in LA who had a whopping 88 regular season points.  So I would have to put an asterisk next to that Habs victory!
    Posted by hangnail[/QUOTE]

    If they make it to the finals I would be thrilled, that would far exceed my expecation level.

    My expectation level is a loss in the conference final.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from hangnail. Show hangnail's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts : If they make it to the finals I would be thrilled, that would far exceed my expecation level. My expectation level is a loss in the conference final.
    Posted by BadHabitude[/QUOTE]

    My expectations are a little higher - I honestly feel they can get to the finals. Once there anything can happen. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from 40YrsNoCup. Show 40YrsNoCup's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts : If they make it to the finals I would be thrilled, that would far exceed my expecation level. My expectation level is a loss in the conference final.
    Posted by BadHabitude[/QUOTE]

    Just what Jacobs & Co. want to hear.

    Do you recall the offseason at all? Chiarelli's message was loud and clear. Stanley Cup or Bust was said over and over again. Now losing is the conference final will make you "thrilled"? WOW.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dezaruchi. Show dezaruchi's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts : Just what Jacobs & Co. want to hear. Do you recall the offseason at all? Chiarelli's message was loud and clear. Stanley Cup or Bust was said over and over again. Now losing is the conference final will make you "thrilled"? WOW.
    Posted by 40YrsNoCup[/QUOTE]
    Please supply quotes/links where PC states "Cup or bust" even once let alone "over and over again".
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from No4BobbyOrr-GOAT. Show No4BobbyOrr-GOAT's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    Pretty sure we have a 1 in 16 chance to win it and a 1 in 2 chance to get out of the first round.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hangnail. Show hangnail's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]Pretty sure we have a 1 in 16 chance to win it and a 1 in 2 chance to get out of the first round.
    Posted by No4BobbyOrr-GOAT[/QUOTE]

    Pretty sure your math is off a bit.  Sticking to probablities, a 1 or 2 seed has a much higher likelihood of winning the cup - 70% of the last 17 Cup champs have been 1 or 2 seeds.   Your 1 in 16 statement assumes all teams have an equal chance to win it which clearly isn't the case, in recent history anyways. 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from No4BobbyOrr-GOAT. Show No4BobbyOrr-GOAT's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    My math is 100%.

    There is no way to configure goals for, goals against, PP, PK etc into the equation because what happens in regular season does not configure into playoffs. Phi made it to finals last year because injured players came back and  were factors, a goalie got hurt and a new goalie stepped in and played lights out, no way that can be figured into any equation.

    We had a player come back that was not the player he was when he went out, then another player went out, we had a goalie played lights out that went cold and a coach that was outcoached.

    There is no way to configure this, or even one playoff round, top teams should win but it doesn`t happen, Mon made it passed 2 top seeds, no way that should happen, but it did.

    Statistics change as numbers change, players change and even coaches and it is only a matter of time before the 8th or even 16th seed as you will, will win it all.  They no doubt have a longer battle, but when the little things get configured in the odds will change.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hangnail. Show hangnail's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]My math is 100%. There is no way to configure goals for, goals against, PP, PK etc into the equation because what happens in regular season does not configure into playoffs. Phi made it to finals last year because injured players came back and  were factors, a goalie got hurt and a new goalie stepped in and played lights out, no way that can be figured into any equation. We had a player come back that was not the player he was when he went out, then another player went out, we had a goalie played lights out that went cold and a coach that was outcoached. There is no way to configure this, or even one playoff round, top teams should win but it doesn`t happen, Mon made it passed 2 top seeds, no way that should happen, but it did. Statistics change as numbers change, players change and even coaches and it is only a matter of time before the 8th or even 16th seed as you will, will win it all.  They no doubt have a longer battle, but when the little things get configured in the odds will change.
    Posted by No4BobbyOrr-GOAT[/QUOTE]

    In the long run, the odds won't change because over the course of time there will be far more higher seeds that win than lower seeds.  Sure, we may see an 8 seed win someday but that will be far from the norm , and not enough low seeds will win over the course of time to have an impact on the true odds.




     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fletcher1. Show Fletcher1's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    If they played the playoffs 1000 times, all of the anomolies would regress into a very small percentage.  #1 seeds would have the best chance of winning followed in sequence to the #8 seed with the lowest chance.  Hangnail is right, the 16 teams do not have equal odds over the long term.


    Still, all the teams have longshot odds to actually win it, so only a fool like 40 yrs would think that any given team 'should' win.  All 16 teams shouldn't win, based on their odds.  But one team will buck the odds and do it.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from lucaooo. Show lucaooo's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    Cool stats... i guess the Bs have to finish ahead of the Flyers then!!
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hangnail. Show hangnail's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]If they played the playoffs 1000 times, all of the anomolies would regress into a very small percentage.  #1 seeds would have the best chance of winning followed in sequence to the #8 seed with the lowest chance.  Hangnail is right, the 16 teams do not have equal odds over the long term. Still, all the teams have longshot odds to actually win it, so only a fool like 40 yrs would think that any given team 'should' win.  All 16 teams shouldn't win, based on their odds.  But one team will buck the odds and do it.
    Posted by Fletcher1[/QUOTE]

    Your last sentence is the key Fletch.  That's why hope springs eternal for 16 cities every April!  Can't wait.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from No4BobbyOrr-GOAT. Show No4BobbyOrr-GOAT's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    In Response to Re: A few Stanley Cup facts:
    [QUOTE]If they played the playoffs 1000 times, all of the anomolies would regress into a very small percentage.  #1 seeds would have the best chance of winning followed in sequence to the #8 seed with the lowest chance.  Hangnail is right, the 16 teams do not have equal odds over the long term. Still, all the teams have longshot odds to actually win it, so only a fool like 40 yrs would think that any given team 'should' win.  All 16 teams shouldn't win, based on their odds.  But one team will buck the odds and do it.
    Posted by Fletcher1[/QUOTE]

    1000 times the players would all be as old as  Rec.

    The anomolies is what remains constant, every year is different,  this is not the NHL of old where a team stayed  together and repeated, 3 peated or even the drive for 5.  Not any team should win, previously a team with 100 plus points were far superior, now with league parity and the stupid 3 point games teams are now closer, there is not as much separation.

    There are 24 teams at .500 or better and a 25th NJ is 1 game below .500, at one time this assured you a playoff spot, now you have to have 40 wins be a +10 in wins to make the playoffs while battling scheduling and injuries.  The cap has made teams more comparable and the 3 point games have kept teams closer. This parity means teams, do really have a shot at the cup in 8th as opposed to being 8th 25 years ago and this parity will become even closer if all teams spend to the cap year after year.

    The league has provisioned the salary cap to allow for stars to make more, so it will come down to can the stars compensate for salary cap, so far Det and Pit have, Chi did but then had to dismantle.

    Bos has the cap filled, just not sure if the star status has been met. Will depend on Luc Krej Hort Kab and how they play in the playoffs with Berg and Z.

    We still have a 1 in 16 to win mathematically and 1 in 2 in the first round.

    Throw in your ANOMILIES and we are probably rated top 6, which is about 16% as opposed to 6%. To start the season we were at odds of 20-1.

    So I looked up
    Vegas Odds
    Start to Season                 Now
    Van        12-1                     3-1
    Was        6-1                       6-1
    Phi         12-1                     7-1
    Bos         20-1                    8-1 betwen top 6 and 16 for 12.5% chance
    SJ            9-1                      8-1
    Det         8-1                       8-1
    Pit          6-1                       12-1
    TB          45-1                     18-1
    Chi          5-1                      18-1
    LA           15-1                    25-1
    ANA        30-1                     30-1
    PHO        35-1                    30-1

    NYR BUF MON NAS  are all at 35-1
    DAl and Car are at 75-1, they are still outside looking in.

    Bos is the most improved team compared to last year's playoff roster for game 7 Philly, I believe they have a date for destiny if they can get past the habnot anomolie which has nothing to do wit hockey in the 1st round.

    They will meet the Sharks if they can get past their own anomolie of Anaheim.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Dave24. Show Dave24's posts

    Re: A few Stanley Cup facts

    "Pretty sure we have a 1 in 16 chance to win it and a 1 in 2 chance to get out of the first round."

    If your goal is to call head/tails 4 straight times, then that probability is correct. But the playoff matchups generally aren't 50/50 matchups...
     

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