Re: Alexandrov to the K
posted at 8/27/2011 7:40 AM EDT
I looked at an eight year stretch to see if there a pattern to the number of second rounders who have some sort of meaningful career (min. 300 games). I also compared to number of first rounders each year.
1995 – 6 (Jochen Hecht, Georges Laracque) 18 FR
1996 – 7 (Matt Cullen, Colin White) 12 FR
1997 – 3 (Henrik Tallinder, Kristian Huselius) 13 FR
1998 – 6 (Cheechoo, Mike Fisher ) 19 FR
1999 – 3 (Jordan Leopold, Mike Commodore) 10 FR
2000 – 11 (Bryzgalov, Paul Martin) 16 FR
2001 – 6 (Cammalleri, Derek Roy) 18 FR
2002 – 7 (Duncan Keith, Trevor Daley) 18 FR
I had planned to do ten years, but realized that, even nearing a decade from the draft, there were active players who wouldn't meet the threshold just because they started their careers later than the first rounders - Johnny Boychuk was a second rounder in 2002, but he's played 125 games because he stalled in the AHL in the Avs system. This also makes me wonder if some of the dip from first to second rounders has to do with a tendency to give more opportunities to first rounders, and have more patience with them.
It looks like between 1/2 and 1/3 as many 2nd rounders make it as 1st rounders. It varies pretty widely depending on how well the scouts have done from year to year. However, in no year does the number of players add up to 30 (2007 is best at 27). Just quickly skimming the rest of the rounds, I would guess that on average, there's maybe 30 players per draft who will play 300 NHL games - one player per team. Maybe the way to judge your team's draft is - did they get their one player? Two is a win, one's par, zero's a fail.
All that to say - Alexandrov's year, they got Kessel, Lucic, Marchand - that's a win no matter what happens with Alexandrov.