Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Crowls2424. Show Crowls2424's posts

    Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    Like many of you, I am frustrated by the way this team is playing.  We have seen this show before, right?  Earlier this year and much of last year, this team has shown little consistency or desperation and again are seemingly incapable of putting together a 60 minute effort.  It is very easy to jump on CJ for this, but I am going to try a different approach...look at player statistical detail over the last 7 games to see what's going on.

    NameGPGAPTSPIM+/-SOGHits
    Krejci735822176
    Lucic7156911815
    Chara72351721615
    Horton72241411613
    Ryder60224-4155
    Recchi71124-2188
    Peverley71120-3132
    Campbell71125179
    Thornton702291119
    Kaberle70222193
    Seguin51012-263
    Bergeron61012-5156
    Paille61012-155
    McQuaid71019-2613
    Boychuck70119-3178
    Ference10000-300
    Kampfer20002-121
    Bartkowski40002022
    Marchand50004-1148
    Kelly70002-556
    Seidenberg70004-61116

    This is certainly debatable, but I think the players highlighted in red have performed below expectations over the past 7 games.

    This group's combined stats are as follows:
    52gp 3-5-8 -29
    The remaining players on the list are as follows:
    74gp 12-20-32 E

    The good news is that your best players; Krejci, Chara, Lucic and Horton have been meeting expectations. 

    The problem: Secondary scoring.
    The Bergeron line, after playing so well for several weeks has been poor as of late.  Bergeron has been fairly invisible, Recchi looks tired and Marchand looks like the kid that had 1 assist in 20 games last year.

    Kelly, Peverley and Ryder are doing little as well.  I am not sure what we should have expected with Kelly, but the 2nd round pick we gave is looking like a steal for the Sens.  I do not see that much difference between Kelly and Campbell, except that I like Campbell better.  Peverley, despite a a great goal against Columbus, has also been a disappointment with only two goals and four points in 12 games since being acquired.  Ryder continues to be Ryder, nothing else needs to be said.

    I think Seidenberg has completely lost his game, turning pucks over regularly and playing at a team-worst -6 over the past 7 games.  Boychuck's disappointing season continues with 1 assist over the past 7 games, and playing at a -3.

    This group needs to be better as there is no magic bullet coming from Providence or elsewhere.  These guys are veterans and professionals and need to play with increased purpose and consistency if the B's have any chance of turning this around.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    Nice work as usual Crowls Bergeron and Siedenberg whom are relied on so much have really glaring numbers. Can Julien motivate them ? we'll find out.

    So if this depth Chiarelli likes to have on the third and fourth lines doesn't work in the playoffs this season does PC use Kelly's, Peverley's, Recchi's, Ryder's, Thornton's and Paille's salaries to bring in that 6-7Mil sniper salary this summer ? I say yes because right now it ain't working.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Crowls2424. Show Crowls2424's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    Good point SanDog on the impact of 3-4 liners.  The team still struggles to find consistent scoring with a decent amount of dollars tied up in the guys you mentioned.  A guy like Penner, for example, would look pretty good in this line-up with his 2-4-6 line in 9 games with LA, also a +3. 

    I know there are other data points worth looking at, like PP effectiveness and shots allowed, but simply stated, this team is not right.  Also, purposely kept goaltending out of the analysis as I think that has been the team's backbone and not worthy of another Tuukka vs. TT thread.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from beantowngm15. Show beantowngm15's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    In Response to Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data:
    [QUOTE]Nice work as usual Crowls Bergeron and Siedenberg whom are relied on so much have really glaring numbers. Can Julien motivate them ? we'll find out. So if this depth Chiarelli likes to have on the third and fourth lines doesn't work in the playoffs this season does PC use Kelly's, Peverley's, Recchi's, Ryder's, Thornton's and Paille's salaries to bring in that 6-7Mil sniper salary this summer ? I say yes because right now it ain't working.
    Posted by SanDogBrewin[/QUOTE]
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from islamorada. Show islamorada's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    Crowls nice work.  I still maintain it is more than just scoring but a breakdown of the team play.  The players in red as you say are easy to identify as inconsitent.  The question comes down to coaching or leadership, or the players themselves.  I am inclined to think of the players first then coaching.  Leadership comes from key players like Bergeron, Lucic, or Chara.... the coaches need to round up the forces and these players need to speak up.  I actually think Rask's looney reaction is what all the players should start doing.  Own up individually and find a way to play as a team.  
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Crowls2424. Show Crowls2424's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    Excellent point isalamorada, the system seems to be breaking down.  Too many odd-man rushes and sustained pressure in their end zone.

    Also agree with your observation on leadership.  These guys need to find a way to turn this around from within the room, and there are plenty of guys that they can lean on.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Crowls2424. Show Crowls2424's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    Couldn't resist looking at the goalies:

    Last 7:
    Thomas
    0-2-2
    161 shots
    14 goals
    .913 SV%

    Rask
    1-1-1
    111 shots
    11 goals
    .901 SV%

    Bruins have given up 38.9 shots per game, exacerbated by a few OT games, including 3 games of over 40 shots (all TT games).  Doesn't sound like CJ's system is working right now.  Too many shots and scoring chances.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from islamorada. Show islamorada's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    In Response to Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data:
    [QUOTE]Couldn't resist looking at the goalies: Last 7: Thomas 0-2-2 161 shots 14 goals .913 SV% Rask 1-1-1 111 shots 11 goals .901 SV% Bruins have given up 38.9 shots per game, exacerbated by a few OT games, including 3 games of over 40 shots (all TT games).  Doesn't sound like CJ's system is working right now.  Too many shots and scoring chances.
    Posted by Crowls2424[/QUOTE]

    Not a hockey genius like some on here, but did CJ open up the offense to gain more scoring during the "winning" road trip? Is the consequence of having the d pinch in and the offense more aggressive the reason for the increase in shots on goal or the poor play of recent times?  Those are challenge questions cause I really don't know or can give a good guess.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    Interesting stats. Bergeron's +/- and Seidenberg's +/- really stick out.  I am sure that some of the lack of production from the lines has to be attributed to the lack of chemistry with the new guys coming in, but the team is going to need more out of each of the players in red if they're at all serious.

    (McQuaid should join Boychuk in red!)
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Crowls2424. Show Crowls2424's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    In Response to Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data:
    [QUOTE]Interesting stats. Bergeron's +/- and Seidenberg's +/- really stick out.  I am sure that some of the lack of production from the lines has to be attributed to the lack of chemistry with the new guys coming in, but the team is going to need more out of each of the players in red if they're at all serious. (McQuaid should join Boychuk in red!)
    Posted by Not-A-Shot[/QUOTE]

    Fair point on McQuaid.  I didn't put him in red, due to lower expectations that I have for him compared to Seidenberg and Boychuck.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    I've fully given up on Boychuk.
     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from bruinscam. Show bruinscam's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    whats the pp % since we got kab   2 -44   nice trade idiott
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jwb413. Show jwb413's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    In Response to Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data:
    [QUOTE]Couldn't resist looking at the goalies: Last 7: Thomas 0-2-2 161 shots 14 goals .913 SV% Rask 1-1-1 111 shots 11 goals .901 SV% Bruins have given up 38.9 shots per game, exacerbated by a few OT games, including 3 games of over 40 shots (all TT games).  Doesn't sound like CJ's system is working right now.  Too many shots and scoring chances.
    Posted by Crowls2424[/QUOTE]

    I believe I heard on the CBC broadcast the B's are dead last in shots allowed. That is unreal for Clod's team.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dezaruchi. Show dezaruchi's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    In Response to Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data:
    [QUOTE]whats the pp % since we got kab   2 -44   nice trade idiott
    Posted by bruinscam[/QUOTE]
    I love it when people misspell idiot......
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from bear-in-the-woods. Show bear-in-the-woods's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    Brick put up a graphic last night showing the team's record over 10-game stretches throughout the season, and noting how consistent they were. The records included overtime losses in a separate column, which is normal for regular season play. I was wondering what it would look like if it was broken down into strict wins and losses, since that's how the playoffs are. In the playoffs, you need a .571 winning percentage to stay alive (four out of a possible seven games. Here are the 10-game stretches. This data does not include the last loss (game 71), just the first 70 games:

    1-10:   7-3 .700
    11-20: 5-5 .500
    21-30: 4-6 .400
    31-40: 5-5 .500
    41-50: 7-3 .700
    51-60: 6-4 .600
    61-70: 5-5 .500

    The team started the season strong, then played mediocre for 30 games, spiked again for 10 games, and has been on a downward trend since then. I thought it would be interesting to see how the season breaks down in 7-game segments to see how it would line up against playoff series:

    1-7:     5-2 .714
    8-14:   4-3 .571
    15-21: 4-3 .571
    22-28: 4-3 .571
    29-35: 4-3 .571
    36-42: 3-4 .429
    43-49: 4-3 .571
    50-56: 4-3 .571
    57-63: 6-1 .857
    64-70: 2-5 .286

    This again shows a strong start, then a series of 4-3 stretches, with one short dip through most of the season. Incredibly consistent, until you hit the winning streak and the ensuing nosedive. I'd like to do the same numbers for a team like Vancouver or the Wings in the west, and the Flyers and Caps in the east. The caps had that incredible losing streak earlier in the season, and lately they had a protracted winning streak. The interesting thing about that is they weren't back to back.

    If the Bruins can turn around their current trend in time for the playoffs, they could get hot just in time. The next 11 games will show us what this team is made of. Are they a mediocre team that will do mediocre in the playoffs as they've shown the last few years, or are they a sleeping giant? Time will tell...
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from bruinscam. Show bruinscam's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    if you don't misspell it it geys deleted  i think you idiot
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanDogBrewin. Show SanDogBrewin's posts

    Re: Last 7: 1-3-3...Let's look at some data

    Interesting trends bear-in-the-woods when will the next upward trend be ? Soon for Julien's sake...
     

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