Re: NEHJ: 10-1
posted at 8/10/2012 10:40 AM EDT
In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: NEHJ: 10-1 : You've given me an example of a junior ( Finley ) who didn't have the success as a pro as he did in junior. There are also examples of good junior goalies who instantly became farm team's #1 goalies with success when they made the jump. Why did this happen ? Because the year before they weren't old enough to play in the AHL. Once they did they were put into that role because they were better then what the system already had . And they hadn't faced a lick of AHL competition to that point in their careers.
Posted by Chowdahkid-[/QUOTE]
Yup, but that's not my point. My point is that until
they play against pros, the guys who write prospect rankings give them more slack than guys who jump straight to very successful AHL gigs or even the NHL. There's some sense to this. In many ways, it makes perfect sense that the brightest prospects in most organizations haven't played a pro game yet. They're the first round picks outside the top 5 or so who go back to junior for one or even two more years. Those are the guys who, based on the success rate of NHL scouts, are 2-3 times more likely to have NHL careers than guys drafted in the second or third rounds, and infinitely better odds than the guys drafted in the 7th like Trotman or Chudinov.
My issue is with applying that logic indiscriminately to guys who are still in junior or the NCAA or a Euro league and who were second and third rounders - or, in Gothberg's case, or Trotman's, 6th and 7th rounders. What you get in that case is the complete opposite of what you criticized in your other post: a ranking that puts all non-pro players ahead of all guys with pro experience (assuming pro means AHL and below because NHLers have graduated and aren't still prospects). And it's just as dumb that way as it is if you reverse it.
As for the Finley example, you know I can give you a hundred examples from all three Major Junior Leagues - it would take me some time, but I could add guys like Justin Pogge (so good the Leafs felt they could part with Rask) or Marek Schwartz in St. Louis (once their top goaltending prospect whose career stall led them to acquire first Mason and then Halak) or Eric Fichaud (reaching back a bit for a Q guy...). But that's not worth the time because we all know that for every guy who makes it, there are a dozen guys who had similar talents but were missing some key quality that made the difference - opportunity being one of the biggest.