Re: Summer rankings: Boston Bruins top 15 prospects
posted at 7/17/2013 10:54 AM EDT
In response to Bookboy007's comment:
I think that's my point above, San. Doesn't matter what they do from an AHL production standpoint if the read on them in terms of potential is AHL top six with a wild outside shot to be a serviceable fill-in. Basically, if they think either guy is just Chris Bourque with a less famous name, well, once-bitten. Both come to the organization with big strikes against them in terms of their perceived potential (everyone passed on them for years), so they have to prove they have more potential than AHL top six. To prove that, they have to show it in the AHL, and while both can be benchmarked against Marchand's production, they haven't killed it when compared to the average small scorer in the AHL. Marchand wasn't given a shot on production alone. To really prove it when you don't have pedigree (i.e. WJHC appearances, Superseries), even 3rd rounder pedigree (in his draft year - different than when he's 20), you have to exceed the AHL competition.
My guess is Luedeke is looking at these guys as not really having potential. I hope they prove him wrong. Be great to see Cunningham push for that third line spot.
I understand, and agree with, all of the skepticism of AHL guys who have had some success there, but seem to be a gear short of really having NHL talent. The odds are certainly against Camper, Cunningham, Trotman, Florek, etc. because they haven't shown much to say they are better
than the AHL level after having time to adjust to the league.
But you're just focusing on the long odds of your more seasoned AHL players. My point is that the odds are surely even greater for small, high-school kids, taken in the 3rd round. If we're talking about making the Bruins and being a regular roster player (any line), I think that a Marchand-like jump from AHL to NHL for someone like Cunningham/Camper is more likely than the jump from Malden Catholic to the Bruins over 5 years.
You know the AHL guy by now. You know he isn't a phenom, but you also know he can play the system and handle big boy hockey. I say if he's still under 25 and can be a leading scorer in Providence, he should still be considered a "prospect". The Fitzgeralds and Cehlariks are the 'mystery box'. More sexy and interesting than your AHL top six for sure, but statistically they will be lucky to ever get where Cunningham and Camper already are. If I am fielding a team and can only include 15 prospects from the farm system, I'd favor a guy who's proven he can do well in the AHL at #14 and #15, over a 3rd round pick high-school kid who hasn't even played college or junior yet.