Re: Tyler Seguin Tracker
posted at 10/13/2013 12:08 PM EDT
In response to stevegm's comment:
A well thought post that backs up your thoughts Bad. Those are always the best read.
Although I'm not upset with the decision to deal Seguin, I think one has to look much deeper than last years playoff performance. I don't think that's a good enough reason to pull the trigger. IMO, the Bruins decided they erred in their decision to pay what they did, coupled with the term. Simple as that. They decided moving forward...he's probably not as good as they thought.. If he was, the cap hit, and one bad playoff when you're only 21 wouldn't mean squat.
I agree with them partially. Although flashy, I consider Seguin kind of a "dumb" hockey player. One that despite the "pond skills", really has nothing to hang his hat on. To me, Kessel was, and is, miles ahead of this kid after 3 years in the league, simply because Kessel certainly has an area or 2, in which he can hang his hat.
In a capped league, team success is dictated by the number of team bargains. Having the worlds best player on your squad, can possibly screw you. Currently, Tyler Seguin is no bargain, and if he doesn't perform up to that #2 overall hype...he won't be. IMO that probably won't happen, and because of the term, that liability just keeps going up.
When I use the word "partially" I'm referring to my perception that you can't win with a team full of "Bruin type players". Although I love Bergeron and co, they don't win that many games. They keep you in em...they save you some....but they don't win that many. You need some finish(Seguin was the best S/O guy). I haven't seen much of Louie, and if he's a perenial 25 goal guy great. But if he's another "responsible" piece, I'm not sure the chances are better. We seem to love these "1 way players" if defence is their forte, and despise those who only excell offensively. The latter are tougher to come buy, and one balances the other. Too much of either, and the recipe is ruined.
Although the cap, and party stuff is good fodder, it's more of a smoke screen than reality. It's easily remedied. You don't trade someone you believe will be a franchise player because of immaturity. You trade him because you've decided in your own mind, he won't be.
"one bad playoff"
This comment heard frequently trivializes what it really was - 22 games.
22 games, one goal.
The players primary strength is scoring goals, his skills are 1) speed and 2) sniping and he didn't get it done.
Look further, previous year 7 games vs. the Caps, 2 goals and 1 assist. OK. Quite reasonable.
Rookie year, 13 games 3g 4a - and some significant goals, and a big single handed effort that won one game.
So he went from pretty good, to slight decline in pts. and no impact to finally very poor production.
Does the trend continue? Maybe, maybe not, but it's not something you like to see. It's one BIG yellow warning flag.
And look how his game developed. Consider the play and not the production over the regular season. Year 1 he made significant learning strides, stagnant a little, signficant strides. Year 2 it was a little sophomore slump, same pattern of stagnant, then a jump, but bigger stagnant periods. Year 3 learning was very slow. The same scenarios over and over and he couldn't figure it out, the 1 on 4 with a crappy shot on goal or poor dump in, trying to stickhandle by guys rather than figuring out how to use the speed to get passed them.
OK, now let's look at WHY this learning trend is going on. I don't know for sure since I'm not in the Bruins locker room, but here's one thing I know for sure. Shawn Thornton threatened to beat the crap out of him if he didn't buckle down and if you recall his game did pick up some after that. Another BIG yellow warning flag.
So when will he come around? Does this history point to this year? It's certainly questionable.
Would you rather have a proven player who is consistent in production and work effort? And will that player be more of an asset in the playoffs? (and in the deal dump Peverly and gain some decent prospects).
At the end of the day, it's a no brainer. Forget the partying and the salary. You have to help the club NOW. The team is getting older, Bergeron's concussion history could catch up to him, you got guys like Chara and Seidenberg who have been pretty injury free over long careers, but the numbers could catch up to you.
The cup window is open, but it could shut - so you have to trade Seguin.
If the cup window is starting to open - you have to keep Seguin.
There is parity in this league, look at the Avs on the way up. Look at Detroit who I would label as a contender before season start, but they are having some trouble now. The age of dynasties are long over - it's just too hard to keep that window open long enough to keep Seguin.