Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft
posted at 2/13/2014 11:11 AM EST
In response to Mployee8's comment:
Betting the franchise on drafting the right player is a risky game with the odds of any GM making a correct choice not as high as one might think.
..."having the right to any top-10 pick means you whiff on the best possible player about seven out of every 10 tries!"
... "in terms of the pure ability to identify the player whose career will turn out better than all others simultaneously on the board, NBA GMs are succeeding less than 40 percent of the time across all first-round picks--and their batting average gets worse the higher the pick is."
"That's why there's such a tremendous risk involved at the top of the draft, because with so many theoretically good players available, there's no real way to differentiate which ones will be better than others. In that sense, high NBA draft picks are what Nassim Taleb might call "Black Swan opportunities," circumstances that arise when random (unpredictable) events have an enormous impact on the course of history. We know that hitting a home run on a high pick is nearly a requisite if you want to win a championship, but this data also shows that it's pretty random as to whether you knock it out of the park with that pick or not. In spite of that unpredictability, the success or failure of that pick almost always has serious long-term ramifications for your team and the league as a whole."
Using the best metric could help to identify the best players available in the draft. After testing different metrics, the autor of this article has decided upon Alternative Win Score (AWS).
"The metric that emerged most strongly from these tests, though, is Alternate Win Score. AWS was devised by David Lewin & Dan Rosenbaum for their 2007 paper "The Pot Calling the Kettle Black," as an answer to Berri's original version of Win Score. Lewin & Rosenbaum showed that AWS outperforms various advanced metrics in terms of predicting future wins, a finding that this research seems to further reinforce. AWS was the second-most effective overall predictor of future wins, and unlike SPM or APMVAL, it lost little of its predictive power when asked to assess teams that saw heavy personnel turnover from the previous season."
That resolved, let's see what the AWS metric has to say about the 2014 draft class ....
Here are the eye opening results;
- Jabari Parker came out on top narrowly
- A Swiss big man that you have probably never hear of, Clint Capela, came out second. He is playing some very high level ball against some pretty difficult competition. Slightly hurt by the reversion due to fewer minutes to date than most NCAA players.
- KJ Daniels is having a hell of a season. He's been a solid player but really upped his score so far this year. His two year average weighted to this year puts him as a late lottery pick.
- Noah Vonleh and Doug McDermott did well. Vonleh I expected, McDermott I did not. I wouldn't take McDermott this hight (see defense), but he's putting up numbers.
- Joel Embiid gets lowered a bit because he has played fewer minutes than many other players and is a smidge older than Parker.
- Andrew Wiggins falls to 26, the statistical production just isn't there, even allowing for age. The 'model' doesn't know the difference between Wiggins' athleticism and McDermott's.
- The first ten prospects scored very close together. In those cases scouting and athletic measures should become magnified in importance.
Another evaluation tool along with metrics that helps fill some of the blanks in assessing future upside. While size, athleticism, Basketball IQ, endurance, tenacity and determination have helped to a large extent seeing actual game performance still seems to command sentimental favortism.
One wonders how much weight is given to team needs when so many centers are chosen ahead of more skilled players. While the Spurs feast on foreign talent it seems like the rest of the NBA has trouble gauging foreign talent. Rick Patino, successful at the college level, was horrendous in trading-away talented draft picks because he could not see their NBA potential.
- We defer to the "experts" at draft time yet we overlook the dismal 40% success rate in picking lottery players. The AWS system at least gives us pause in correlating what our eyes see with what metrics has not already told us. Drafting has always been considered a "crap shoot" with luck bridging the gap between and ART and SCIENCE. What a great contribtion introducing the AWS at this juncture!