Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Mployee8. Show Mployee8's posts

    Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    Betting the franchise on drafting the right player is a risky game with the odds of any GM making a correct choice not as high as one might think.

     

    http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2362

     

    ..."having the right to any top-10 pick means you whiff on the best possible player about seven out of every 10 tries!"


    ... "in terms of the pure ability to identify the player whose career will turn out better than all others simultaneously on the board, NBA GMs are succeeding less than 40 percent of the time across all first-round picks--and their batting average gets worse the higher the pick is."

     

    "That's why there's such a tremendous risk involved at the top of the draft, because with so many theoretically good players available, there's no real way to differentiate which ones will be better than others. In that sense, high NBA draft picks are what Nassim Taleb might call "Black Swan opportunities," circumstances that arise when random (unpredictable) events have an enormous impact on the course of history. We know that hitting a home run on a high pick is nearly a requisite if you want to win a championship, but this data also shows that it's pretty random as to whether you knock it out of the park with that pick or not. In spite of that unpredictability, the success or failure of that pick almost always has serious long-term ramifications for your team and the league as a whole."


    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Using the best metric could help to identify the best players available in the draft. After testing different metrics, the autor of this article has decided upon Alternative Win Score (AWS).

     

    http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1985

     

    "The metric that emerged most strongly from these tests, though, is Alternate Win Score. AWS was devised by David Lewin & Dan Rosenbaum for their 2007 paper "The Pot Calling the Kettle Black," as an answer to Berri's original version of Win Score. Lewin & Rosenbaum showed that AWS outperforms various advanced metrics in terms of predicting future wins, a finding that this research seems to further reinforce. AWS was the second-most effective overall predictor of future wins, and unlike SPM or APMVAL, it lost little of its predictive power when asked to assess teams that saw heavy personnel turnover from the previous season."

     

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

     

    That resolved, let's see what the AWS metric has to say about the 2014 draft class ....

     

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvmLSZmyaYiNdGJMdk9idENsN0ZnYlBfUlFQd0IxNGc&usp=sharing#gid=1

     

    Here are the eye opening results;

     

     

    Jabari Parker

    Clint Capela

    KJ Daniels

    Noah Vonleh

    Doug McDermott

    Joel Embiid

    Dario Saric

    Kyle Anderson

    Montrezl Harrell

    Willie Cauley-Stein

    PJ Hairston

    Gary Harris

    Tyler Ennis

    Nik Stauskas

    Jusuf Nurkic

    Marcus Smart

    Julius Randle

    TJ Warren

    Lamar Patterson

    Aaron Gordon

    Zach LaVine

    Jerami Grant

    Spencer Diwindle

    Shabazz Napier

    Andrew Wiggins

    Sam Dekker

    CJ Wilcox

    Mitch McGary

    Jarnel Stokes

    Walter Tavares

    Rodney Hood

    Adreian Payne

    James Young

    Elfrid Payton

    Bogdan Boganovic

     

     

     

    • Jabari Parker came out on top narrowly
    • A Swiss big man that you have probably never hear of, Clint Capela, came out second.  He is playing some very high level ball against some pretty difficult competition.  Slightly hurt by the reversion due to fewer minutes to date than most NCAA players.
    • KJ Daniels is having a hell of a season.  He's been a solid player but really upped his score so far this year.  His two year average weighted to this year puts him as a late lottery pick.
    • Noah Vonleh and Doug McDermott did well.  Vonleh I expected, McDermott I did not.  I wouldn't take McDermott this hight (see defense), but he's putting up numbers.
    • Joel Embiid gets lowered a bit because he has played fewer minutes than many other players and is a smidge older than Parker.
    • Andrew Wiggins falls to 26, the statistical production just isn't there, even allowing for age.  The 'model' doesn't know the difference between Wiggins' athleticism and McDermott's.
    • The first ten prospects scored very close together.  In those cases scouting and athletic measures should become magnified in importance.

     

    http://counting-the-baskets.typepad.com/my-blog/

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Mployee8. Show Mployee8's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    bump for those that may have missed this post ...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaCeltics. Show DaCeltics's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    You can't judge a good player by stats, period. Good stats are a by product and VERY CIRCUMSTANTIAL imo.

    Players like Carmelo Anthony are my proof. Stats say he's a great player but they don't tell you he gives up points and freezes his teammates out.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hedleylamarr. Show hedleylamarr's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    In response to DaCeltics' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    You can't judge a good player by stats, period. Good stats are a by product and VERY CIRCUMSTANTIAL imo.

    Players like Carmelo Anthony are my proof. Stats say he's a great player but they don't tell you he gives up points and freezes his teammates out.

    [/QUOTE]


    I kind of agre with this........kind of don't.

    It is a fact that Carmelo Anthony is an elite scorer....one of the best of this generation.  It is my opinion, that he never "had" to play defense in college, and has had bad coaching in the pros.  (forgot who his coach in DEN was). If you told me we would draft a kid who would average AT LEAST 20 ppg in his rookie year, and every subsequent year, and who rarely got hurt, I'd take it. Melo getting 20 is almost as automatic as Durant getting 20.  Anyway,   the reason I want Parker is because he plays for Coach K.  I KNOW he will play D in the pros.  Coach K stresses D, and is an excellent teacher.  Never been a big fan of Boeheim.........

    So, while stats do not tell all, give me the next Melo or Durant any day of the week, and have Stevens teach him D.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaCeltics. Show DaCeltics's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    The stat argument goes hand in hand with the Wilt vs Russell argument. Statisically speaking Wilt should have been the winningest player in the history of the world. Yet Bill Russell is.

    WHY?

    THE UNMEASURABLE INTANGIBLES THAT CAN ONLY BE FELT OR OBSERVED. Momentum plays, inspiration of teammates, etc.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaCeltics. Show DaCeltics's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    Big Bill is the King of DEFLATING OPPONENTS for sure. Another immeasurable! 

    I like that suggestion Mel! The Ultimate Clutch Defender.

    Do you know who Melle Mel is, by the way?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaCeltics. Show DaCeltics's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    What's with the changing font sizes BDC!!!!!!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheBigTicket05. Show TheBigTicket05's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    In response to Mployee8's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Betting the franchise on drafting the right player is a risky game with the odds of any GM making a correct choice not as high as one might think.

     

    http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2362

     

    ..."having the right to any top-10 pick means you whiff on the best possible player about seven out of every 10 tries!"


    ... "in terms of the pure ability to identify the player whose career will turn out better than all others simultaneously on the board, NBA GMs are succeeding less than 40 percent of the time across all first-round picks--and their batting average gets worse the higher the pick is."

     

    "That's why there's such a tremendous risk involved at the top of the draft, because with so many theoretically good players available, there's no real way to differentiate which ones will be better than others. In that sense, high NBA draft picks are what Nassim Taleb might call "Black Swan opportunities," circumstances that arise when random (unpredictable) events have an enormous impact on the course of history. We know that hitting a home run on a high pick is nearly a requisite if you want to win a championship, but this data also shows that it's pretty random as to whether you knock it out of the park with that pick or not. In spite of that unpredictability, the success or failure of that pick almost always has serious long-term ramifications for your team and the league as a whole."


    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Using the best metric could help to identify the best players available in the draft. After testing different metrics, the autor of this article has decided upon Alternative Win Score (AWS).

     

    http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1985

     

    "The metric that emerged most strongly from these tests, though, is Alternate Win Score. AWS was devised by David Lewin & Dan Rosenbaum for their 2007 paper "The Pot Calling the Kettle Black," as an answer to Berri's original version of Win Score. Lewin & Rosenbaum showed that AWS outperforms various advanced metrics in terms of predicting future wins, a finding that this research seems to further reinforce. AWS was the second-most effective overall predictor of future wins, and unlike SPM or APMVAL, it lost little of its predictive power when asked to assess teams that saw heavy personnel turnover from the previous season."

     

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

     

    That resolved, let's see what the AWS metric has to say about the 2014 draft class ....

     

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvmLSZmyaYiNdGJMdk9idENsN0ZnYlBfUlFQd0IxNGc&usp=sharing#gid=1

     

    Here are the eye opening results;

     

     

    Jabari Parker

    Clint Capela

    KJ Daniels

    Noah Vonleh

    Doug McDermott

    Joel Embiid

    Dario Saric

    Kyle Anderson

    Montrezl Harrell

    Willie Cauley-Stein

    PJ Hairston

    Gary Harris

    Tyler Ennis

    Nik Stauskas

    Jusuf Nurkic

    Marcus Smart

    Julius Randle

    TJ Warren

    Lamar Patterson

    Aaron Gordon

    Zach LaVine

    Jerami Grant

    Spencer Diwindle

    Shabazz Napier

    Andrew Wiggins

    Sam Dekker

    CJ Wilcox

    Mitch McGary

    Jarnel Stokes

    Walter Tavares

    Rodney Hood

    Adreian Payne

    James Young

    Elfrid Payton

    Bogdan Boganovic

     

     

     

    • Jabari Parker came out on top narrowly
    • A Swiss big man that you have probably never hear of, Clint Capela, came out second.  He is playing some very high level ball against some pretty difficult competition.  Slightly hurt by the reversion due to fewer minutes to date than most NCAA players.
    • KJ Daniels is having a hell of a season.  He's been a solid player but really upped his score so far this year.  His two year average weighted to this year puts him as a late lottery pick.
    • Noah Vonleh and Doug McDermott did well.  Vonleh I expected, McDermott I did not.  I wouldn't take McDermott this hight (see defense), but he's putting up numbers.
    • Joel Embiid gets lowered a bit because he has played fewer minutes than many other players and is a smidge older than Parker.
    • Andrew Wiggins falls to 26, the statistical production just isn't there, even allowing for age.  The 'model' doesn't know the difference between Wiggins' athleticism and McDermott's.
    • The first ten prospects scored very close together.  In those cases scouting and athletic measures should become magnified in importance.

     

    http://counting-the-baskets.typepad.com/my-blog/

    [/QUOTE]

    i didnt know wiggins has been that far. way too far

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaCeltics. Show DaCeltics's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    I want to know why AWS doesn't recognize the talents of Russ Smith, Brady Heslip and Ethan Wragge. Superstar role players in my book!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Mployee8. Show Mployee8's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    In response to DaCeltics' comment:

     

    I want to know why AWS doesn't recognize the talents of Russ Smith, Brady Heslip and Ethan Wragge. Superstar role players in my book!

     




    Here's the rest of the ratings ... I only did the top 35 on the OP ... One made the grade!

     

     

    Devyn Marble

    Markel Brown

    Russ Smith

    Nick Johnson

    Deonte Burton

    Glen Robinson

    Patric Young

    Fuquan Edwin

    LaQuinton Ross

    Jordan McCrae

    Keith Appling

    Alex Polythress

    Cory Jefferson

    Olivier Hanlon

    Isaiah Austin

    SemaJ Christon

    Joe Harris

    Dwight Powel

    l Vasilije Micic

    Wayne Selden

    Alessandro Gentile

    Aaron Craft

    Jahii Carson

    Thanasis Antedekoumpo

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fiercy. Show Fiercy's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    Any metrics justifying a Joel Anthony for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist trade?

     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fiercy. Show Fiercy's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    In response to Mployee8's comment:

     

    Baiting w/o the pole again I see .... yours is a losers game ... Nobody took your bait on the game post did they so you're trying again so you can ruin another thread, huh?



    I'm just asking a question!

     

    There must be a reason why you thought Joel Anthony for Kidd-Gilchrist is possible, right?

    I'm thinking you must have used metrics?

     
  14. This post has been removed.

     
  15. This post has been removed.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fiercy. Show Fiercy's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    Come on, Joel Anthony for Kidd-Gilchrist or Hayward is being creative?

    HAHAHA

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Fiercy. Show Fiercy's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

     "It's been reported that the Cats may use Gilchrist to sweeten the pot to dump Gordon and if so that's an opportunity to move Anthony."

    Dump Gordon?

    Ben Gordon has an expiring contract.

    Why would the Cats need to sweeten the pot by adding a former #2 pick for Joel Anthony?

    Even your partner, kettle, didn't agree to that suggestion, pot.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from romneywins. Show romneywins's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    I would love to have a team that featured Melo and Wilt.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moskk. Show moskk's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    In response to Mployee8's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Betting the franchise on drafting the right player is a risky game with the odds of any GM making a correct choice not as high as one might think.

     

    http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2362

     

    ..."having the right to any top-10 pick means you whiff on the best possible player about seven out of every 10 tries!"


    ... "in terms of the pure ability to identify the player whose career will turn out better than all others simultaneously on the board, NBA GMs are succeeding less than 40 percent of the time across all first-round picks--and their batting average gets worse the higher the pick is."

     

    "That's why there's such a tremendous risk involved at the top of the draft, because with so many theoretically good players available, there's no real way to differentiate which ones will be better than others. In that sense, high NBA draft picks are what Nassim Taleb might call "Black Swan opportunities," circumstances that arise when random (unpredictable) events have an enormous impact on the course of history. We know that hitting a home run on a high pick is nearly a requisite if you want to win a championship, but this data also shows that it's pretty random as to whether you knock it out of the park with that pick or not. In spite of that unpredictability, the success or failure of that pick almost always has serious long-term ramifications for your team and the league as a whole."


    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Using the best metric could help to identify the best players available in the draft. After testing different metrics, the autor of this article has decided upon Alternative Win Score (AWS).

     

    http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1985

     

    "The metric that emerged most strongly from these tests, though, is Alternate Win Score. AWS was devised by David Lewin & Dan Rosenbaum for their 2007 paper "The Pot Calling the Kettle Black," as an answer to Berri's original version of Win Score. Lewin & Rosenbaum showed that AWS outperforms various advanced metrics in terms of predicting future wins, a finding that this research seems to further reinforce. AWS was the second-most effective overall predictor of future wins, and unlike SPM or APMVAL, it lost little of its predictive power when asked to assess teams that saw heavy personnel turnover from the previous season."

     

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

     

    That resolved, let's see what the AWS metric has to say about the 2014 draft class ....

     

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvmLSZmyaYiNdGJMdk9idENsN0ZnYlBfUlFQd0IxNGc&usp=sharing#gid=1

     

    Here are the eye opening results;

     

     

    Jabari Parker

    Clint Capela

    KJ Daniels

    Noah Vonleh

    Doug McDermott

    Joel Embiid

    Dario Saric

    Kyle Anderson

    Montrezl Harrell

    Willie Cauley-Stein

    PJ Hairston

    Gary Harris

    Tyler Ennis

    Nik Stauskas

    Jusuf Nurkic

    Marcus Smart

    Julius Randle

    TJ Warren

    Lamar Patterson

    Aaron Gordon

    Zach LaVine

    Jerami Grant

    Spencer Diwindle

    Shabazz Napier

    Andrew Wiggins

    Sam Dekker

    CJ Wilcox

    Mitch McGary

    Jarnel Stokes

    Walter Tavares

    Rodney Hood

    Adreian Payne

    James Young

    Elfrid Payton

    Bogdan Boganovic

     

     

     

    • Jabari Parker came out on top narrowly
    • A Swiss big man that you have probably never hear of, Clint Capela, came out second.  He is playing some very high level ball against some pretty difficult competition.  Slightly hurt by the reversion due to fewer minutes to date than most NCAA players.
    • KJ Daniels is having a hell of a season.  He's been a solid player but really upped his score so far this year.  His two year average weighted to this year puts him as a late lottery pick.
    • Noah Vonleh and Doug McDermott did well.  Vonleh I expected, McDermott I did not.  I wouldn't take McDermott this hight (see defense), but he's putting up numbers.
    • Joel Embiid gets lowered a bit because he has played fewer minutes than many other players and is a smidge older than Parker.
    • Andrew Wiggins falls to 26, the statistical production just isn't there, even allowing for age.  The 'model' doesn't know the difference between Wiggins' athleticism and McDermott's.
    • The first ten prospects scored very close together.  In those cases scouting and athletic measures should become magnified in importance.

     

    http://counting-the-baskets.typepad.com/my-blog/

    [/QUOTE]

    Another evaluation tool along with metrics that helps fill some of the blanks in assessing future upside. While size, athleticism, Basketball IQ, endurance, tenacity and determination have helped to a large extent seeing actual game performance still seems to command sentimental favortism.

    One wonders how much weight is given to team needs when so many centers are chosen ahead of more skilled players. While the Spurs feast on foreign talent it seems like the rest of the NBA has trouble gauging foreign talent. Rick Patino, successful at the college level, was horrendous in trading-away talented draft picks because he could not see their NBA potential.

    1. We defer to the "experts" at draft time yet we overlook the dismal 40% success rate in picking lottery players. The AWS system at least gives us pause in correlating what our eyes see with what metrics has not already told us. Drafting has always been considered a "crap shoot" with luck bridging the gap between and ART and SCIENCE. What a great contribtion introducing the AWS at this juncture!
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaCeltics. Show DaCeltics's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    I like to see how much "spirit" a skilled player plays with, discipline, intelligence, unselfishness, courage and determination.

    If a skilled player is short on too many of those things I tend not to like them.

    Players high on determination and drive( which shows in their physique, hustle and skill level) make themselves into very valuable players. Unlike most NBA players. I'm talking Charles Barkley, Brandon Bass Mugsy Bogues type drive and determination. Undersized? Not in HEART!

    If so many players had the drive of those players and like Lebron and Kobe and Durant maybe Jonathan Bender, Kwame Brown and Yi Jianlian type guys would have been great players.

    Maybe Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady would have reached Hall of Fame status.

    Its all relative. It can be taught. Barkley always refers to Moses Malones influence. Jordan influenced Pippen.

    That hard work drive is the most important intangible in any draft pick. Embiid has it. Smart has it. Hood has it.Parker has it.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Mployee8. Show Mployee8's posts

    Re: Odds of Making the Right Pick / Metrics Used for Evaluation / AWS Results for 2014 Draft

    In response to DaCeltics' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I like to see how much "spirit" a skilled player plays with, discipline, intelligence, unselfishness, courage and determination.

    If a skilled player is short on too many of those things I tend not to like them.

    Players high on determination and drive( which shows in their physique, hustle and skill level) make themselves into very valuable players. Unlike most NBA players. I'm talking Charles Barkley, Brandon Bass Mugsy Bogues type drive and determination. Undersized? Not in HEART!

    If so many players had the drive of those players and like Lebron and Kobe and Durant maybe Jonathan Bender, Kwame Brown and Yi Jianlian type guys would have been great players.

    Maybe Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady would have reached Hall of Fame status.

    Its all relative. It can be taught. Barkley always refers to Moses Malones influence. Jordan influenced Pippen.

    That hard work drive is the most important intangible in any draft pick. Embiid has it. Smart has it. Hood has it.Parker has it.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think that a player can have all the "right" components to become a great player but if he ends up on the wrong team or with a poor coach he may be doomed.

    It looks like our new coach is the right guy to educate and succeed in bringing out the best of the athletes he coaches so I'm hopeful that this braintrust can/will look at a player like Capela and if drafted make him the best player he can be.

     

Share