2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins)

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    2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins)

      This post was inspired by another thread which mentioned conference losses and their importance towards tiebreakers.

      Last year the Patriots missed the playoffs as a result of their 5 conferences losses.(Miami, NYJets, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and San Diego). New England went 7-5 in the conference and 4-0 vs the NFC for an overall record of 11-5.  New England lost the division tiebreaker to 11-5 Miami and the wildcard tiebreaker to the 11-5 Ravens.

                                      Tiebreakers for the division vs Miami
    1. Head to Head.(Split 1-1)
    2. Division Record(both 4-2)
    3. Win-Loss% in common games.(both teams 10-2)

      Both teams split with NYJets                                                   1-1
      Both teams beat Buffalo twice                                                2-0
      Both teams beat Denver, KC, Oakland, SF, Seattle, St. Louis 6-0 
      Both teams 1-1 vs  combination of SD and Arizona               1-1
    4. Win-Loss% vs Conference
       Dolphins 8-4
       Patriots  7-5
     The Patriots beat Arizona and lost to San Diego while Miami did the opposite.  The other two conference games were a wash. Miami lost to Baltimore and Houston, while the Patriots lost to Pittsburgh and Indianapolis.

                                       Tie Breakers for the Wildcard
                                     New England and Baltimore 11-5
    1. Head to Head.(No matchup)
    2. Won-Lost percentage in Conference
       Baltimore wins with an 8-4 record to New England 7-5

      Now we can test the importance of conference wins with What-ifs.  Just for fun, lets swap the Arizona victory for a conference loss. Instead the Patriots win one of these conference losses.(Miami,NYJets,Pittsburgh,Indianapolis or San Diego)
     
     1.  We can start easily with the Miami loss. (Instead of splitting with Miami and beating Arizona, the Patriots beat Miami twice and lose the Arizona game.

      New England wins the AFC East with an 11-5 record while getting the number three seed in the AFC playoffs and host Baltimore in the Wild Card. Miami finishes second with a 10-6 record.

    2. We swap the NYJets loss for the victory over Arizona.

      New England and Miami finish tied for the division at 11-5.
      Tiebreaker 1. Head to Head. (tied 1-1)
      Tiebreaker 2. Win-Loss in Division. (Patriots 5-1, Dolphins 4-2) Patriots are 3 seed and host Baltimore for the Wildcard.-Baltimore wins wildcard over Miami by Head to Head victory.

    3.  We swap the Pittsburgh loss for the victory over Arizona
       
      New England and Miami finish 11-5
      Tiebreaker 1. Head to Head. (tied 1-1)
      Tiebreaker 2. Won-Loss in Division. (tied 4-2)
      Tiebreaker 3. Won-Loss in Common Games(previously tied 10-2, New England now    loses this tiebreaker by dropping to 9-3 with an Arizona loss.  As Miami played     Arizona but not Pittsburgh. Miami wins the Division.  The Patriots now go to a tiebreaker with Baltimore for the Wild Card.
     
                                             Baltimore and New England 11-5
                                                       Wild Card Tiebreaker
      Tiebreaker 1. Head to Head. (No matchup)
      Tiebreaker 2. Win-Loss in Conference. Baltimore 8-4. New England becomes 8-4 by beating Pittsburgh instead of  Arizona.
      Tiebreaker 3. Win-Loss% vs. Common Opponents minimum of 4 games.(I will caution here that this is the best that I can figure how this works.)
     
      Baltimore and New England have 5 games vs. common opponents.(2-3 records)
     Both teams beat Oakland and lost to Indianapolis       1-1
     Both teams played Miami and Pitt a total of 3 games 1-2
     NE 0-1vs Pitt, 1-1 vs Miami- Baltimore 0-2vs Pitt, 1-0 vs Miami
     HOWEVER, because we have swapped the Arizona win for one over Pittsburgh, this tiebreaker changes. New England wins the Wildcard with a 3-2 record in this tiebreaker over Baltimore's 2-3 record.  New England becomes the 6th seed and plays at Miami in the first round.

    4. We swap the Arizona victory for one over Indianapolis.

       New England and Miami finish tied at 11-5 for the division.
      Tiebreaker 1. Head to Head.(tied 1-1) 
      Tiebreaker 2. Won-Loss% in Division.(tied 4-2)
      Tiebreaker 3. Won-Loss vs. Common Opponents. (Where it had been previously tied at 10-2, substituting the Arizona win for one over Indianapolis, drops the Patriots to 9-3. Miami did not play Indianapolis.  Miami wins the Division. The Patriots now go to a tiebreaker vs. Baltimore for the Wildcard.

                                              Baltimore and New England 11-5
                                                        Wildcard Tiebreaker 
      Tiebreaker 1. Head to Head. (No matchup)
      Tiebreaker 2. Won-Loss% in Conference. Baltimore is 8-4. New England becomes 8-4 in the Conference by substituting Arizona win for one over Indianapolis.
      Tiebreaker 3. Won-Loss% in games vs. common opponents.(Tied at 2-3) 
      HOWEVER, New England becomes 3-2 with a victory over Indianapolis, which beat Baltimore,  being substituted for one over Arizona. New England becomes 6th seed and plays at Miami in the first round.

      5. We swap the Arizona victory for one over San Diego. 
     
      New England and Miami finish 11-5.
      Tiebreaker 1. Head to Head(tied 1-1)
      Tiebreaker 2. Won-Loss% in the Division(tied 4-2)
      Tiebreaker 3. Won-Loss% vs. Common Opponents.(tied 10-2)
      Tiebreaker 4. Won-Loss% in Conference Games.(tied 8-4)
      Tiebreaker 5. Strength of Victory.(Record of the opponents beaten by the Patriots 71-105, record of opponents beaten by the Miami 70-106) HOWEVER, because we have substituted a victory over Arizona(9-7)  for one over San Diego(8-8)  This tiebreaker is now tied at 70-106. Essentially both teams have done the same thing.
      Tiebreaker 6. Strength of Schedule. Both teams played the same schedule with two exceptions.  New England played Pittsburgh and Indianapolis while Miami played Baltimore and Houston.  I didn't find info on how this is figured.  I doubt that it is figured by the teams previous season record as many are accustomed to looking at the phrase, strength of schedule, when looking at the upcoming season.  New England would win this as both of their opponents finished first while Miami's finished last.  I am inclined to believe this would be figured by how the opponents record finished up being during the season in question.  New England wins this way also. Pitt and Indy went 24-8 while Baltimore and Houston combined for a 19-13 record.  New England becomes the 3rd seed and host Baltimore in the Wildcard round.

      Under these scenarios of swapping a non-conference win for another one in the conference the Patriots make the playoffs in all five.  3 out of 5 the Patriots win the division and the 3rd seed and Miami misses the playoffs. The other 2 bring the 6th seed as a wildcard  and a trip to Miami.

    PS It makes no difference that I used Arizona except in tiebreaker 5 vs Miami in the scenario where New England beats San Diego.  If I had substituted the San Diego loss for one to the 49ers, Seahawks or Rams the Patriots would have won the 5th tiebreaker(strength of victory) over Miami instead of having to go to the 6th tiebreaker.

     
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnochRoot. Show EnochRoot's posts

    Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs

    And if we swap out the loss against the Bears in 1986, we win the SB.

    And if we put blanks in John Wilkes Boothe's gun, Lincoln gets the W.

    And if we swap out Green Lantern's inherent weakness to the color yellow with one against, say Nordic tea, then he easily beats Superman in a footrace. But you would have to swap out Supes for dead and not live first.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from NickC1188. Show NickC1188's posts

    Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins)

    I think lost in the overflow of information is the point, which I think is a good one.

    The Patriots NEED to win CONFERENCE and DIVISION games.  As long as they do that and continue to improve as the year progresses, they should punch a ticket to the playoffs and gain enough momentum to do some serious damage.

    While it will be a good barometer for where the team is at that time, the game against the Saints pales in comparison to the game against the Colts and the games against the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from auchhhhhhhhhhh. Show auchhhhhhhhhhh's posts

    Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins)

    Therefore the saints game is a loseable one ?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from prairiemike. Show prairiemike's posts

    Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins)

    In Response to Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins):
    [QUOTE]Therefore the saints game is a loseable one ?
    Posted by auchhhhhhhhhhh[/QUOTE]

    I'm pretty sure that's it, yes. Of the next five, the game against the Saints carries the least significance, should the Pats lose it.

    The guy from Vermont may have had some other point, but I don't have as much time on my hands as he apparently does -- and I wasn't about to read all that gibberish.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southernpat. Show southernpat's posts

    Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins)

    A lot of time and effort went into this post.  Just win, baby.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins)

    In Response to Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins):
    [QUOTE]Therefore the saints game is a loseable one ?
    Posted by auchhhhhhhhhhh[/QUOTE]

      A loss to an a NFC team could very easily cost a division title.  New Orleans will be a common opponent for all AFC East teams.  Common Opponents is the third division tiebreaker(and it comes before conference record).
      Under two of the 5 scenarios in the OP, swapping a non-conference win for a conference win the Patriots still lost the division.  The tiebreakers never made it to step 4.  It did however help the Patriots win the Wildcard in the end. 
      Strength of Victory may sound odd, but it is the 4th Wildcard tiebreaker and could easily come up.  Losing to the Bucs would have been better than losing to the Saints.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs

    In Response to Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs:
    [QUOTE]And if we swap out the loss against the Bears in 1986, we win the SB. And if we put blanks in John Wilkes Boothe's gun, Lincoln gets the W. And if we swap out Green Lantern's inherent weakness to the color yellow with one against, say Nordic tea, then he easily beats Superman in a footrace. But you would have to swap out Supes for dead and not live first.
    Posted by EnochRoot[/QUOTE]

     The post is an example demonstrating the importance of Conference wins, but also noting how critical common opponent games can be.  Perhaps, I could have used the team A and team B format.  I chose not to.  This post is not about changing history.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins)

    In Response to Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins):
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins) : I'm pretty sure that's it, yes. Of the next five, the game against the Saints carries the least significance, should the Pats lose it. The guy from Vermont may have had some other point, but I don't have as much time on my hands as he apparently does -- and I wasn't about to read all that gibberish.
    Posted by prairiemike[/QUOTE]

    You know Mike, you used to come across as funny, witty, but friendly guy.  Why are you now insulting people at random?  Let's keep the board civil, please.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Evil2009. Show Evil2009's posts

    Re: 2008 Tiebreaker Scenarios and What-Ifs (The importance of Conference Wins)

    Isn't there a crib notes version of this? If tie breakers are a worry than the solution is sole posession of 1st place at the end of the season. Unlike two of our division opponents out QB knows how to play in the winter. This may not work for the Fins since it seems like their schedule seems to always keep them in warm weather most Decembers but sunshine Sanchez has to prove he can play in the northeast in December before I worry about the Jets.
     

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