Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!
posted at 2/25/2012 9:58 AM EST
In Response to Re: ***2012 Patriots Draft Thread*** MOCK V2 ADDED 2/18!
[QUOTE]hey guys given the perfect storm of obrian staying instead of leaving immediately for penn state, bb's conservatism, brady's brain f@rt in the endzone AND GRONK BEING HURT resulting in the loss, i reiterate that our offense is designed to run with 2 elite te's. and we need to have the triple threat back and big outside receiver to get the optimal out of this offense. i still start the draft making sure to get fleener or an elite te. problem is due to bb's ability to stockpile picks and inability to make the most of them (see mike reiss who echoed my sentiment over the past years in one of his recent blogs), we still have too many holes for one draft. so i and we have all hashed out the needs, i may start with one of curry//mercilus/cox/devon still/chandler jones and fleener with the first 2 picks or trade up with 48 to get 3 - 1st round guys(and or top of second) including fleener. despite the perfect storm, if we had a guy like fleener this year, dont think we lose even with gronk down (nice leverage to extend or resign our top te and hback as well).
Posted by bredbru[/QUOTE]
I like to think of our receiving corps as a basketball team. You need your big man in the middle of the paint who can get out ahead on fast breaks, that's Gronk. A point guard rushing to get back isn't going to prevent the Gronk from getting a lay up or a slam dunk, in his case. Then we have our power forward in Hernandez. Welker's the point guard he touches the ball the most. We're missing the #2 and #3, the shooting guard and small forward who can fly. Lloyd or Branch could be that #2 but where's the #3? In reality, a tall 6-2 plus guy to win his one-on-ones outside the numbers, and a speedy guy who demands help, is needed. You wouldn't cover Michael Jordan one-on-one in his hay day. This is a Michael Wallace type player.
Since we aren't going to give up the pick for Wallace, we need to draft a Wallace. Razorbacks, Jarius Wright and Joe Adams potential fit the bill coming from a Pro Style Offense and I'm sure Mallett can give a good scouting report on each. I expect both to run in the low 4.3s. I favor Adams just because he is so dynamic on special teams in the return game, an area where we were lacking last year, and an area where rookies have to cut their teeth. We aren't going to put him out on offense for 50 plays a game to start. He'll return punts, kicks and come out maybe 5-10 plays on Offense where we want to either take a shot down field or to keep a safety out of the box or to open up the middle.
There's a plethora of tall guys in this draft, options in every round. I personally like Randle perhaps even as high as 31 over Sanu or Jeffery. But I also think Toon, Hill, D Jones, M Jones, Quick, Criner, Posey and McNutt could all be 3-5th round options.
The idea of a high pick on a 3rd TE doesn't seem like it would improve the team, unless of course Gronk gets hurt, so we'd be drafting a kid we hope we don't have to play much. There are only so many balls to go around. My notion that we need different receivers with different skills sets is to create match-up problems and require the defense to cover the entire field. A team might have one tall safety or corner so maybe they can take away a Gronk but they can't play the same guy on Gronk and a Randle. If they want to double Welker in the slot, then they have to play man on the edge against a speedster with safety deep to respect that. Then you open things up in the middle for Gronk and Hern and if you clear out one side you open up a late developing RB screen or outlet pass which we used to do before the BJGE days but hardly ever do anymore (not sure if it's Benny, think it is though as our OL is pretty mobile). A Vereen would be perfect for this if we aren't looking to add another RB in the draft.
Bottom line is our O is geared towards Brady finding the best match up and open man. If we give Brady time, he can go through all his progressions, then back to the first option if needed quickly. If there is talent at every receiver position, someone should be open on every play. If you have inferior WRs who can be easily single covered by nickel and dime backs then the whole strategy is thwarted.
I don't think it was a conscience decision to become a TE focused team, we just happen to have 2 really good ones, with weak WRs meaning the TEs were often the best option. If we add good WRs to the mix, I think we could use more of the field to spread the D out further and create even better situations and options for Brady. If we were to do this, it would mean fewer balls for Welker, Gronk and Hern. But that's okay. I'd rather have 5 guys catching 50 balls than 3 catching 75. A spread out field can only help in the running game too.
Look at the disbursement of passes last year. If I'm an opposing DC, I try to take away Gronk and Welker. If I do that, I force them to beat me with Hernandez. In fact if you look at games where Gronk was stopped, Hern had his best games. In games were Gronk had 4 or fewer receptions, SD, OAK, NYJ, KC, PHI, DEN, NYG; Hern had 4 or more catches except the OAK where he DNP.
| ||REC||TAR || YDS ||AVG||TD||LONG|
|Tight Ends||169||237|| 2,237 ||26.2||24||52|
|Gronk||90||124|| 1,327 ||14.7||17||52|
|Hern||79||113|| 910 ||11.5||7||46|
|% of plays||42%||39%||43%|| ||57%|| |
| || || || || || || |
|Receivers||196||311|| 2,657 ||110||18||285|
|Welker||122||172|| 1,569 ||12.9||9||99|
|Branch||51||90|| 702 ||13.8||8||63|
|Ocho||15||32|| 276 ||18.4||1||53|
|Edelman||4||8|| 34 ||8.5||0||11|
|Underwood||3||6|| 30 ||10||0||13|
|Slater||1||3|| 46 ||46||0||46|
|% of plays||49%||51%||51%|| ||43%|| |
| || || || || || || |
|BJGE||9||13|| 159 ||17.7||0||53|
|Woodhead||18||31|| 157 ||8.7||0||16|
|Faulk||7||9|| 34 ||4.9||0||18|
|Ridley||3||5|| 13 ||4.3||0||8|
|% of plays||9%||10%||7%|| ||0%|| |
I look at these numbers and a couple of things stick out. Welker is the only threat at WR and now that he's over 30, I don't think we want him catching 122 balls, 30% of all catches. If he gets hurt or a team can take him away, that's a big deal. Gronk and Welker combined to have 50% of all passes thrown there way, recording 53% of all catches for 55% of all yards and 62% of all receiving TDs. That's too much IMO but they were the best options. Teams we face will get players and schemes to stop those two guys and if they do, they know they might be able to beat us.
The other thing that really stood out is our running backs contributed almost nothing in the passing game. What a change from years past. Less than 10% contributed by RBs in the passing game with ZERO TDs. We need BALANCE, BALANCE and BALANCE just in the receiving game. We can't rely on 3 guys to carry the load. Welker, Gronk and Hern accounted for 72% of all catches and yards and 79% of all passing TDs. In the 4 games we lost, Hern didn't play in the BUF game and Gronk was basically out of the SB game so if we lose one of the three, the chances of beating us improve greatly.