Re: #3 in the AFC Now?
posted at 12/21/2009 4:10 AM EST
In Response to Re: #3 in the AFC Now?
[QUOTE]No one answered the question of "what if" San Diego loses the last two and the Pats win. Is there any shot of the 2 seed then? I'm thinking no but curious to hear.
Posted by BostonTrollSpanker[/QUOTE]
For two teams (being the Chargers and Patriots, if both finish 11-5 and the Bengals lose one or both of their final two games):
(1) Head to head (Not applicable)
(2) Conference games (both would be 8-4)
(3) Common games, minimum of 4
... Patriots would be 3-2 against these teams, while San Diego would be 3-2 against these teams
(4) Strength of Victory
Pats margin of victory in their wins this year so far is 154/9 = 17.111111
Chargers margin of victory in their 11 wins: 132 / 11 = 11.090909
In this case, you'd be VERY happy that the Pats scored so many points against the Titans and Bucs, and able to justify any future games in which the Pats ran up the score from now until when Belichick retires.
Same tiebreakers apply to a three-way tie, in the same order: (Being if the Patriots, Chargers, and Bengals all finish 11-5)
(1) Head to head sweep, being if one team beat the other two (not applicable)
(2) Conference record:
Chargers would be 8-4
Patriots would be 8-4
Bengals would be 8-4
(3) Common Opponents, minimum of four (not applicable)
(4) Strength of Victory (so far this year)
Bengals: 86 / 9 = 9.555555
This also highlights why it's really important to score a lot of points in the last two games this year. I don't think it would be wrong to run up the score, and hopefully the talking heads will acknowledge just how realistic it is that the #2 or #3 seed in the AFC will be decided on strength of victory.