#3 in the AFC Now?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from bostatewarrior. Show bostatewarrior's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

    In Response to Re: #3 in the AFC Now?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to #3 in the AFC Now? : The Pats are listed as # 3 on NFL.com. WHY??? Go Pats
    Posted by DavidSeattle[/QUOTE]

    I think I read somewhere it's because of strength of schedule.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

    No one answered the question of "what if" San Diego loses the last two and the Pats win. Is there any shot of the 2 seed then? I'm thinking no but curious to hear.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnochRoot. Show EnochRoot's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

    The Pats have Strength of Victory ahead of the Bengals right now for the tie breaker.

    If they both win out, it falls to SoV again and the Pats should win the tie. For the games they still have to play, the Pats play a stronger schedule, but SoV is based on the record of opponents they have beaten and those records could fluctuate wildly. For example, if all the teams the Bengals have already beaten go 2-0 while all the teams the Pats have already beaten go 0-2, the SoV will likely go to the Bengals.

    I am not sure where the Chargers stand in SoV, but if they lose out and the Pats win out, they will go against the Pats in SoV as well.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from NickC1188. Show NickC1188's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

    In Response to Re: #3 in the AFC Now?:
    [QUOTE]No one answered the question of "what if" San Diego loses the last two and the Pats win. Is there any shot of the 2 seed then? I'm thinking no but curious to hear.
    Posted by BostonTrollSpanker[/QUOTE]



    For two teams (being the Chargers and Patriots, if both finish 11-5 and the Bengals lose one or both of their final two games):
    (1) Head to head (Not applicable)
    (2) Conference games (both would be 8-4)
    (3) Common games, minimum of 4
    Baltimore
    Miami
    Tennessee
    Denver
    ... Patriots would be 3-2 against these teams, while San Diego would be 3-2 against these teams
    (4) Strength of Victory
    Pats margin of victory in their wins this year so far is 154/9 = 17.111111
    Chargers margin of victory in their 11 wins: 132 / 11 = 11.090909

    In this case, you'd be VERY happy that the Pats scored so many points against the Titans and Bucs, and able to justify any future games in which the Pats ran up the score from now until when Belichick retires.

    Same tiebreakers apply to a three-way tie, in the same order: (Being if the Patriots, Chargers, and Bengals all finish 11-5)
    (1) Head to head sweep, being if one team beat the other two (not applicable)
    (2) Conference record:
    Chargers would be 8-4
    Patriots would be 8-4
    Bengals would be 8-4
    (3) Common Opponents, minimum of four (not applicable)
    (4) Strength of Victory (so far this year)
    Pats: 17.11111
    Chargers: 11.090909
    Bengals: 86 / 9 = 9.555555

    This also highlights why it's really important to score a lot of points in the last two games this year.  I don't think it would be wrong to run up the score, and hopefully the talking heads will acknowledge just how realistic it is that the #2 or #3 seed in the AFC will be decided on strength of victory.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

    In Response to Re: #3 in the AFC Now?:
    [QUOTE]If you change just two plays during the season the Pats are 11-3. In Miami 4th and goal on the 6, a field goal there wins the game as opposed to going for it. Thats a coaching error in my book since they were up 10 at the time. In Indy Maroney fumbles at the goal line on second down and we come away with nothing with what should have been a td. Those were both road games the Pats could easily have won as they lost by only a point so in retrospect are they as 'bad' as we are pegging them?  Clearly they were out coached and out played in the Saints game but other then that it seems as though maybe the team is coming around here somewhat and with Taylor and Morris back along with a rejuvenated Maroney and Seabass just blasting whoever is across from him the team has some light on the horizon.  It certainly was a big positive for Moss to have a good game today.
    Posted by gridlocked[/QUOTE]

    Great post. I've been saying the same thing, only I'd change the key play in Miami. Going for it on fourth down has been successful for the  most part during Belichick's regime, so I'm not going to criticize him for that, although sometime yes, just take the field goal. 

    The play I'd change in the Miami game is Brady's interception in the end zone. If he just throws it away and doesn't try to force it, even if the Patriots don't move the ball any further, they can just kick the field goal and again, Miami doesn't come back.

    There's a fine line in the NFL between good and great, average good, bad and averge, etc.

    And on that note about not being as bad as people are saying: The Pats are second in the NFL in fewest points allowed. Yes, that stat is a bit deceiving because we know there are some issues that need to be improved and the schedule has something to do with it. At the same time, if the Patriots have issues and are still second in fewest points allowed, what does that say about everyone else because every team have a certain number of bad teams on their schedule.

    I find it funny that last year, all the critics said the Pats' defense was old and slow. So Belichick retooled the defense to get the Pats got younger, which of course means growing pains, and now the critics rip the Pats for not having veterans.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from msniii. Show msniii's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

    who cares? worry about it when they get there!!
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnochRoot. Show EnochRoot's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: #3 in the AFC Now? : http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings http://www.patriots.com/schedule/ http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule?team=sd http://www.nfl.com/teams/cincinnatibengals/schedule?team=CIN For two teams (being the Chargers and Patriots, if both finish 11-5 and the Bengals lose one or both of their final two games): (1) Head to head (Not applicable) (2) Conference games (both would be 8-4) (3) Common games, minimum of 4 Baltimore Miami Tennessee Denver ... Patriots would be 3-2 against these teams, while San Diego would be 3-2 against these teams (4) Strength of Victory Pats margin of victory in their wins this year so far is 154/9 = 17.111111 Chargers margin of victory in their 11 wins: 132 / 11 = 11.090909 In this case, you'd be VERY happy that the Pats scored so many points against the Titans and Bucs, and able to justify any future games in which the Pats ran up the score from now until when Belichick retires. Same tiebreakers apply to a three-way tie, in the same order: (Being if the Patriots, Chargers, and Bengals all finish 11-5) (1) Head to head sweep, being if one team beat the other two (not applicable) (2) Conference record: Chargers would be 8-4 Patriots would be 8-4 Bengals would be 8-4 (3) Common Opponents, minimum of four (not applicable) (4) Strength of Victory (so far this year) Pats: 17.11111 Chargers: 11.090909 Bengals: 86 / 9 = 9.555555 This also highlights why it's really important to score a lot of points in the last two games this year.  I don't think it would be wrong to run up the score, and hopefully the talking heads will acknowledge just how realistic it is that the #2 or #3 seed in the AFC will be decided on strength of victory.
    Posted by NickC1188[/QUOTE]

    Nick SoV isn't the point differential. It is the combined winning percentage of teams you have beaten.

    Right now the Pats have the SoV edge against Cincy to put them at the #3 seed. .424 to Cincy's .413.

    It looks close enough to be about a one or two game difference in the number of wins their beaten opponents have. So their fate will be decided not only by their own winning out, but also by how the teams they beat over the past 15 weeks  fare over the next few weeks.



     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from NickC1188. Show NickC1188's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: #3 in the AFC Now? : Nick SoV isn't the point differential. It is the combined winning percentage of teams you have beaten. Right now the Pats have the SoV edge against Cincy to put them at the #3 seed. .424 to Cincy's .413. It looks close enough to be about a one or two game difference in the number of wins their beaten opponents have. So their fate will be decided not only by their own winning out, but also by how the teams they beat over the past 15 weeks  fare over the next few weeks.
    Posted by EnochRoot[/QUOTE]

    My mistake

    Thanks!
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from prairiemike. Show prairiemike's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

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    [QUOTE]     I think that the Bengals own the tie-breaker with the Pats.       I don't want to see the Pats land the 3rd seed. If they do, that means that they'll have to play and beat San Diego on the road, if they want another shot at the Colts.      Remember how 2006 turned out? Thanks to the Pats, the Colts avoided the Chargers. The Patriots were the only good team that Indy had to beat, on their way to that tainted championship of theirs.      I would much rather see the Pats get the 4th seed. That way, the Colts would have to beat both the Pats and Chargers to get to the SB.      Anybody, but the Indianapolis Colts.    
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    This is the ideal situation, although I should point out that Indy will beat neither the Pats, nor the Bolts, and certainly not both.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

         Yes...it appears that the Pats have a great chance at the damn third seed. What I don't want to see is a replay of 2006...where the Pats have to beat both the Chargers and Colts on the road, in order to get to the SB: http://www.examiner.com/x-1324-New-England-Patriots-Examiner~y2009m12d21-Patriots-move-up-to-the-3rd-seed-in-the-AFC-one-win-away-from-clinching-AFC-East 

         Pray for the 4th seed. That way, the Colts would have to earn their way to the SB, by beating both the Chargers and Pats.

         ANYBODY...but the hated Indianapolis Colts.  
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from prairiemike. Show prairiemike's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

    The third seed should be avoided at all costs.

    Bitchburgh (just a hunch) at home . . .

    San Dago and Indy on the road.

    That's a freaking gauntlet, man.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SmokingJoe. Show SmokingJoe's posts

    Re: #3 in the AFC Now?

    In Response to Re: #3 in the AFC Now?:
    [QUOTE]     I think that the Bengals own the tie-breaker with the Pats.       I don't want to see the Pats land the 3rd seed. If they do, that means that they'll have to play and beat San Diego on the road, if they want another shot at the Colts.      Remember how 2006 turned out? Thanks to the Pats, the Colts avoided the Chargers. The Patriots were the only good team that Indy had to beat, on their way to that tainted championship of theirs.      I would much rather see the Pats get the 4th seed. That way, the Colts would have to beat both the Pats and Chargers to get to the SB.      Anybody, but the Indianapolis Colts.    
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    AMEN brother Bring on INDY, Plus the Fact that Travelling across the country and then back would be very difficult....  Would rather play INDY FIRST.... assuming of course we win our home game...
     

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