Re: A win is a win but I'm not too thrilled with the Pats Performance.
posted at 10/9/2011 9:24 PM EDT
My flash power ratings after the Pats-Jets game:
Did you ever wonder how I could come up with statistically valid numeric rankings after only the first week of games? Easy, I was using old 2010 rankings and adding the first week’s results to them.
Gradually the 2011 results gained traction. Week 5, now, is the week that I will finally cut the residual ties to 2010 results. Consequently, a number of teams are jumping up and down the rankings this week, but the cutoff has to be done. Because of the cutoff, lots of changes are revealed here. I wouldn’t want to hide the differences between 2010 and 2011 because they are pronounced and often as not they say something about the characters of certain teams.
Ratings are out of 16 victories if the season started fresh tomorrow.
1 gb 14.3 (last wk. 2) Entirely on 2011 reputation this week. Congrats.
2 ne 12.8 (last wk. 1) New England’s rep in the last half of last year was golden. Losing that afterglow drags New England down towards earth. Still, the 2011 Pats have earned a #2 ranking this year by comfortably beating good teams.
3 bal 12.8 (last wk. 3) No, I would not switch two teams with nearly the same power ranking. Baltimore is statistically a tiny fraction below New England for now.
4 det 11.8 (last wk. 4)
5 buf 10.8 (last wk. 13) Buffalo had a horrid rep last year. I bet they’re glad to cut off that 2010 tail of theirs. In 2011, good against KC and generally tough in defeat.
6 no 10.6 (last wk. 5)
7 sf 10.5 (last wk. 20) Somehow they demolished a pretty good team in a laugher this week. That counts for something.
8 oak 10.5 (last wk. 16) This one’s a shock. However, they did beat up on both the Jets at home and Houston on the road. Give it up for good 2011 performances.
9 nyj 9.7 (last wk. 10) About on target. My stats care nothing for a team’s win-lose record, which is a horrid predictor of future performance. All that I compare are margins of victory, avoiding various tickytack scores.
10 hou 9.7 (last wk. 6)
11 dal 9.6 (last wk. 15)
12 chi 9.5 (last wk. 9)
13 pit 9.4 (last wk. 7) Pittsburgh drops because they have now lost last year’s glitter.
14 cin 8.8 (last wk. 21) Note: I had to make a judgment call today on that silly touchdown with zero seconds left. In the end I followed my preset rules and gave Cincy credit for the game’s final fumble/touchdown. The score was in doubt on the final play, so count the TD. It won’t matter much someday.
15 sd 8.3 (last wk. 12)
16 ten 8.0 (last wk. 8) Pittsburgh just took the air out of Tennessee this week. Tennessee is a good reason why I hang onto 2010 statistics through 4 games in 2011. Bad teams sometimes have a fluke game, and the statistics need a bit of stability.
17 phi 7.7 (last wk. 18) They were mediocre last week, mediocre this week too.
18 was 7.7 (last wk. 19)
19 min 7.3 (last wk. 22)
20 den 7.2 (last wk. 25)
21 car 6.8 (last wk. 30) Carolina actually grew some whiskers this week. Pretty good!
22 sea 6.3 (last wk. 31) Another team grew some whiskers!
23 atl 6.2 (last wk. 17) This team lost its 2010 afterglow. This report is before the Green Bay night game! Right now Atlanta is ahead by two touchdowns, pretty good, but I don’t try to factor half-games into my stats.
24 nyg 6.0 (last wk. 11) All of the teams that the Jints have played were pretty much duds. If Seattle can beat the Giants badly, what’s left?
25 az 5.1 (last wk. 27)
26 tb 5.0 (last wk. 14) I stopped counting this last beating at 31 points down. Even so, I need evidence that anyone is home to get The Bucs out of the cellar. Now it’s ok in the NFL to just give up and suck your thumb?
27 mia 4.9 (last wk. 24)
28 kc 4.9 (last wk. 26) A statistical loss of afterglow weighs a bit more heavily than beating Indy this week.
29 jac 4.7 (last wk. 29)
30 cle 3.8 (last wk. 28)
31 stl 2.9 (last wk. 32)
32 ind 2.3 (last wk. 23) Big loss of 2010 afterglow. TexasPat was right in last week’s rankings. In 2011 this Peyton-free team survives only on photosynthesis, and looks up to higher life forms such as the Venus Fly Trap.