Re: Amendola update
posted at 9/25/2013 4:43 PM EDT
In response to PatsEng's comment:
In response to seattlepat70's comment:
You can't say Amendola (even Edelman) won't be that good at being sneaky. You're an engineer. You know better than to compare an outcome when the input variables have different values (in this case the TE position).
As an engineer I can compare an outcome with known variables with some unknown provide we use current/past and not future variables during calculations. At this point (the point he's arguing) what we know is Amendola isn't playing (hard to be sneaky when you aren't on the field) and the RZ % has dropped with Edelman on the field (Brady is having to hold to ball longer than he clearly was before in single TE and spread sets at goal line compared to previous years). Those are the knowns in this equation in which Welker did find ways to get open which Edelman hasn't found yet. BTW, engineers use best estimate methods all the time because for the most part you can't know all the variables or have direct comparisons. That's why we use things like predictive modeling and LaPlace calculations
You really want to bring in Laplace transforms into this conversation? Maybe helpful in predicting/ modeling other things... not better at predicting football performance.
It boils down to simple logic. Your statement is this...
"There's also the RZ % that has drastically dropped. Now the lose of Gronk and Hern has a good chunk to do with that but Welker was also sneaky good at getting open and finding the goal line. It's actually hard to argue the opposite."
So tell me when, during his stay with the Pats, WW had to consistently get open and find the goal line with none of Gronk, Hern and/or Moss on the field?
You think you know that Welker would have fared better, but the truth is you don't because Welker never has had to make a lot of plays without other big threats opening up the field for him. You can speculate. But that is all it is - a speculation.
And for that matter, it does not matter whether they are in the RZ or not.