Colts average team..

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ccsjl. Show ccsjl's posts

    Colts average team..

    Think about it - line opened at 3, which is homefield and has not moved. A truly dominant team are always double digit favorites for every home game.  
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    No. They get three points for playiong at home.

    What the odds are saying is it would be even odds at a neutral site.

    And -3 Pats at Gillette.

    Good teams playing good teams have even-ish odds.

    There is no mandate that good teams are favored at home by large margins against any opponent.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sam-Adams. Show Sam-Adams's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    In Response to Colts average team..:
    [QUOTE]Think about it - line opened at 3, which is homefield and has not moved. A truly dominant team are always double digit favorites for every home game.  
    Posted by ccsjl[/QUOTE]

    I don't know about double digit. This game could be anything, tight game, Pats romp, Indy romps, could be either way. What I will say is the Pats are coming in with little to lose. Indy can drop this game and wouldn't be a huge deal. If the Pats lose it is.

    Pats 31-28
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from msamhunter. Show msamhunter's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    No the colts aren't average. Given the recent history of both teams, the games are just close and very good no matter where it's played at. I will say the if the Colts lose, it's no sweat off their back as of yet because they are a good what 2 games up on anyone else in the AFC South. If that Pats lose, it's a completely different story.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ccsjl. Show ccsjl's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    My point is I find it laughable that Vegas and all the talking heads in sports, 90% are picking Pats to win.....Only one picking Dolts are the Indy homers......

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Vladtheimpaler1. Show Vladtheimpaler1's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    the colts,and pats games have always been close,and down to the wire at times.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    The Colts are national betting favorites because they're undefeated.  Personally, I have the Colts as only a 12-4 or an 11-5 team if the season restarted today.  They're much better than the NFL average, but they didn't beat Jacksonville, Miami, San Francisco or Houston with much authority (13 points combined margin of victory over the four games). 

    Much more important is where the team is now.  The Colts can't defend passes with any precision when they start two rookie cornerbacks.  Lacey (undrafted rookie, 5' 10" and 177 lbs) will be making his third start. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnochRoot. Show EnochRoot's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    In Response to Re: Colts average team..:
    [QUOTE]The Colts are national betting favorites because they're undefeated.  Personally, I have the Colts as only a 12-4 or an 11-5 team if the season restarted today.  They're much better than the NFL average, but they didn't beat Jacksonville, Miami, San Francisco or Houston with much authority (13 points combined margin of victory over the four games).  Much more important is where the team is now.  The Colts can't defend passes with any precision when they start two rookie cornerbacks.  Lacey (undrafted rookie, 5' 10" and 177 lbs) will be making his third start. 
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    How do you generate your "moment in season" ratings? Do you average the last few games and remove points for potential loss of strength via injury? I think it is a far better indicator when matching teams on a week to week basis but haven't seen a formula or method. Gaspar, or one of the other guys who took over Reiss' blog has an interesting method that he posted (just the results, not the calculations) last week. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from mrbungle. Show mrbungle's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    I tell you, the Colts are very much a great team. I watch them and they are well coached and Manning is fun to watch. No doubt about it. I would go so far to say the Colts have a great organization not unlike the Patriots. 

    Trust me, BB and Brady would disagree 100% with your "average" label. I hated the Dolphins for years but, loved watching Marino. I appreciate great players and we are fortunate this year to be able to see Favre, Manning, Brees and Brady have the seasons they are having thus far. 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    In Response to Re: Colts average team..:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Colts average team.. : How do you generate your "moment in season" ratings? Do you average the last few games and remove points for potential loss of strength via injury? I think it is a far better indicator when matching teams on a week to week basis but haven't seen a formula or method. Gaspar, or one of the other guys who took over Reiss' blog has an interesting method that he posted (just the results, not the calculations) last week. 
    Posted by EnochRoot[/QUOTE]
    User Image
    Paul_K wrote:
    My completely homemade stat is the number of victories that a team would achieve if the season restarted tomorrow, and if teams played each other at random. It works on the following principles.

    1. I count point differential because it’s exactly what each coach wants. A team plays its most predictive football for three quarters. In the fourth quarter teams take on strategies not to maximize points, but to seal the win, to gamble for the win or to try out the rookies (in the Tennessee game). For these reasons I count only the first three quarters of point differential as a statistical signal for future game potential. I consider scoring in the fourth quarter as too much noise to get a useful signal.

    2. A team that dominates time of possession statistically does better in the fourth quarter. Whole-game time of possession (excluding overtime) is independent of point differential. I arbitrarily give 1 point for each 2.5 minutes of possession over 30.

    3. A home team should be three points better.

    4. I arbitrarily assume that a team with a strength of 9-7 will be 1.5 points better than a team with a strength of 8-8.

    5. Good ratings start to go stale as teams change. Many teams see season-ending injuries and of course they stay that way. Sometimes newbie defenses and offenses (such as the Patriots) start to get better. I have an arbitrary weighting factor that applies a 10% per game stale rate.

    6.  Note that my stats are completely blind to quite recent injury reports.  I often qualify my stats.  In this case, Julian Edelman, Matt Light and Dan Koppen all took the trip out to Indianapolis, and that's new, while on the Indy side, their favorite remaining cornerback is now out, and that's new.

    7. My spreadsheet then goes to work and finds out what 32 NFL power rankings would best fit the above criteria with minimum variance.  I can then predict future scores, probably not as well as the Vegas sharks with millions of dollars of research, but in a completely different way, which is great. 

    So far I like my power rankings a lot better than, say, Mr. Breer's rankings in the Globe, but I have almost zero signal against the Vegas spread.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from JulesWinfield. Show JulesWinfield's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    I know how the homer posts go, but I'm starting to think this "Colts struggled against mediocre teams like SF and Jax" thing is pretty funny.  The Pats actually LOST to the Jets, who are 3-5 against the rest of the league.  They also lost to Denver who is 5-3 against the rest of the league.  Your team just barely got by Miami last week, and that team is only 4-5 now.  And then there's the Bills.  Now, even the great teams struggle in some games they should win easily, but if you're gonna take that "the Colts aren't so good because they struggle against average teams" stance, at least be brave enough to assess your team by the same standards.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from carawaydj. Show carawaydj's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    I'll plagiarize Reiss on this, but he often says it's not who you play, but when you play them that matters most.  You could play a team in week 4 that was unbeaten and hot that goes on to finish a mediocre team.  The fact is, you beat the hot team, not the mediocre team.  Likewise, you can beat a team early that started the season bad, but finished strong.  It doesn't mean you beat a good team at the time you beat them.  Long story short, your opponents records are only part of the story.  Their records when you played them matter too.  How hot or cold they were when you played them matters.

    Personally, I'm not too into analyzing opponents.  It's quite possible for a great team to have a weak schedule.  It doesn't mean the team isn't great.  It simply means they might not have adequately proven it.

    Anyway, talk is cheap.  The game is near and we'll see how good they/we are. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from underdogg. Show underdogg's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    In Response to Re: Colts average team..:
    [QUOTE]The Colts are national betting favorites because they're undefeated.  Personally, I have the Colts as only a 12-4 or an 11-5 team if the season restarted today.  They're much better than the NFL average, but they didn't beat Jacksonville, Miami, San Francisco or Houston with much authority (13 points combined margin of victory over the four games).  Much more important is where the team is now.  The Colts can't defend passes with any precision when they start two rookie cornerbacks.  Lacey (undrafted rookie, 5' 10" and 177 lbs) will be making his third start. 
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]
    Paul did you conveniently forget that the other rookie Powers will be making his eighth start?  While I don't completely disagree with you, that amounts to 11 cornerback starts for the rookies out of a possible 18.  That is 61% of the starts. 
    Currently those rookies have helped the colts passing defense to a #9 ranking in passing yards; a #1 ranking in passing TD's; a #8 ranking in Int's; a #4 ranking in opponent QB rating; and a #5 ranking in sacks. 

    Now - I am not naive enough to believe that the colts have faced a passing attack as good as the pats, but they have played Phoenix and Houston.  These guys are young, but you should give credit where credit is due.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rocky. Show Rocky's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    Join us Underdogg at:  http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/patriots/blog/_/post/4652855
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from underdogg. Show underdogg's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    Rock - I am usually right here during the game.  I take all the slings and arrows in real time.

    Rock - I went to the site, but it just looked like the reporter's blog.  Is there posting there?
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from JulesWinfield. Show JulesWinfield's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    Does this loss by the Pats mean that they are a BELOW average team?
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoHoldingCalls. Show NoHoldingCalls's posts

    Re: Colts average team..

    In Response to Re: Colts average team..:
    [QUOTE]Does this loss by the Pats mean that they are a BELOW average team?
    Posted by JulesWinfield[/QUOTE]
    No, just that their win total is below the average yardarge given to Peyton for phantom PI calls
     

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