Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BubbaInHawaii. Show BubbaInHawaii's posts

    Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    Interesting read...

    http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html

    Seems like were in the middle to lower end of the different metrics, but We do get kudos for the Quality Standings :)
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ritchie-az. Show Ritchie-az's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    Obviously a bunch of hogwash, because the Patriots defense is much better than 23rd overall.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BubbaInHawaii. Show BubbaInHawaii's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    In Response to Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams:
    [QUOTE]Obviously a bunch of hogwash, because the Patriots defense is much better than 23rd overall.
    Posted by Ritchie_az[/QUOTE]

    I wouldn't say that it's hogwash. I think it's fairly consistent w/ with our less than stellar red zone defense problems.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sam-Adams. Show Sam-Adams's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    This isn't hogwash, it's based on fact. I'm sure If you reshuffled this just showing the last two weeks you'd see the Pats much higher but you can't do that. They didn't play well the first two games and it is what it is.
     
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    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    In Response to Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams:
    [QUOTE]This isn't hogwash, it's based on fact. I'm sure If you reshuffled this just showing the last two weeks you'd see the Pats much higher but you can't do that. They didn't play well the first two games and it is what it is.
    Posted by Sam-Adams[/QUOTE]


    Your right.....it would be interesting if the stats were a little more dynamic - maybe displaying the same statistic - but with more weighting in more recent games - that way - mebbe a trend upward or downward could be seen - something that might indicate "momentum" in terms of improvement or worsening....
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ritchie-az. Show Ritchie-az's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    Huh? The Patriots defense have faced three good offenses in four games: Jets, Falcons and Ravens. In each outing they did very well. The Patriots defense no doubt is one of the top 10 defenses in the NFL right now. No way they're 23rd.


    Why doesn't coldhardfootballfacts look at all the aspects of defense, instead of focusing on three aspects? Are those aspects the most important? Do they tell the whole story? No!

    So, yeah, it's hogwash.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ritchie-az. Show Ritchie-az's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    Patriots defense is:
     
    - 7th best in yards per game allowed

    - 15th best in yards per play allowed

    - 10th best at stopping 3rd down conversion attempts

    - 4th best at creating fumbles

    - 11th best at rush defense

    - 15th most sacks

    - 10th fewest points allowed


    I guess those "cold, hard football facts" don't mean anything.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SmokingJoe. Show SmokingJoe's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    The folks at CHFF, generally produce good information and good data.  I have no doubt that this index will for the most part separate the good defensive teams from the weak.

    There is only one problem that I see with the analysis.  It is only after 4 games and the quality of competition has not been factored into the results.  Denver's schedule for example has been much easier than the Patriots and Jets. 

    There is no way that the JETS should be middle of the pack (16th) with their defense.    I think if we look at this same index at the end of the year, it will correlate much better with the top defensive teams.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from underdogg. Show underdogg's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    And don't forget, CHFF are a bunch of local boston pats homers.  As sam said, you can't change the facts.  When you get a taste of their bias, it comes from what they choose write from their analysis. 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ritchie-az. Show Ritchie-az's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    So you believe the Patriots defense is the 23rd best (worst?) in the NFL?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from NickC1188. Show NickC1188's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    They're not typically running the ball into the end zone.  They've only given up 1 rushing touchdown this year, which I believe means the "hogs" are doing their jobs.  I also see that they're ranked 11th and 12th in yards per carry and total rushing yards respectively, meaning that they're doing an above average, if not stellar job of defending the run.  They're also 7th in total yards allowed/average and 10th in total points.  They're 7th against the pass, and their only real weakness is that they only have 8 sacks.

    I got this informations from this website:
    http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2009&seasonType=REG

    I think it says more about the Patriots' red zone coverages.

    Take for example the Jets game.  McGowan dropped off of the tight end who ran a route right into the end zone to pick up an underneath route by the running back.

    Against the Ravens, Guyton also got sucked into following the tight end who ran an out route instead of staying in the middle of the field, leaving the area wide open for McGahee to catch his touchdown.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from NickC1188. Show NickC1188's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    In Response to Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams:
    [QUOTE]Patriots defense is:   - 7th best in yards per game allowed - 15th best in yards per play allowed - 10th best at stopping 3rd down conversion attempts - 4th best at creating fumbles - 11th best at rush defense - 15th most sacks - 10th fewest points allowed I guess those "cold, hard football facts" don't mean anything.
    Posted by Ritchie_az[/QUOTE]

    Umm yea, what you said lol
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from steve1581. Show steve1581's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    In Response to Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams:
    [QUOTE]Interesting read... http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html Seems like were in the middle to lower end of the different metrics, but We do get kudos for the Quality Standings :)
    Posted by BubbaInHawaii[/QUOTE]



    UHMMMM 

    yeah. That is hogwash. 

    The rankings do not consider the schedule/strength of opponents. 

    I put more faith in the actual ranking (was 6th now 7th overall)

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatFanInBA2. Show PatFanInBA2's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    Only one of our opponents this year has over 300 years on our defense. Has not given up over 17 points.

    Younger, faster players still jelling together. Defensive captain has been out for couple of games - should come back soon WOW and we are ranked #7 overall - http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2009&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

    This year's DEFENSE is EXCITING !!!
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from steve1581. Show steve1581's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    I agree

    and 

    I really missed being just as excited to see our defense as our offense.

    not since 03/04 have I been this excited about our d. You can see it



    the makings of a FANTASTIC defense 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from angel3781. Show angel3781's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    After looking over their website, a few thoughts come to mind:

    1.)  If you are only going to use three stats to base the quality of a particular teams defense, then you should be using the three most critcal benchmarks when evaluating a defense. 

    That said, what is the number one objective of any defense?  To stop the other team from scoring.  Therefore one of the key benchmarks, and the one that should be given the most weight is points allowed per game by the defense.  On their website they ommit this benchmark in favor of yards per carry allowed by the opposing team's running backs.  Measuring how a team performs in defending the run is a great stat, but if I'm only going to use three stats in order to critique/evaluate NFL defenses, then  I'd much rather use the points allowed per game by the defense stat.  **** We rank #8 in points allowed per game ****

    2.)  The second key objective of any defense is to create excellent field position for your offense.  Therefore the benchmark that has the greatest ability to produce this result, is forcing turnovers i.e., sacks, fumbles, interceptions etc.... 
    The do use this stat which is great and therefore should be given the second highest weighting in evaluating defenses.  ****We rank #1 in forced fumbles, #15 in sacks, and are in a 3-way tie for #30 in interceptions per ESPN.**** 

    3.)  Besides stopping other teams from scoring and creating good field position for your own offense, the third and final benchmark that I'd use would be the 3rd down conversion  % which once again this website does use. **** We are tied for 14th best in this stat per ESPN.****

    Overall they do use 2 out the 3 most important stats for ranking defenses.  However, they also ommitted the single most critical stat in favor of a less important one which to me represents a critical flaw in their analysis.

    Furthermore, if you log onto ESPN, they have the Pats rated as #10 in Total Defense which takes into consideration yds/gm for passing, yds/gm for rushing, and pts/gm allowed.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from prairiemike. Show prairiemike's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    Here's how it works . . .

    You start with a premise . . .  any premise . . .  it doesn't matter.

    Then you gather statistics. Lots and lots of them.

    Then you pore over those numbers and you select the particular statistics that support the premise you have already decided is true.

    And if the numbers you're looking for don't exist, create some crazy formula (but don't call it a formula, formulae are for geeks; call it a "metric" -- metrics are totally awesome) that nobody with an actual life will ever have the time or patience to decipher, and then simply present your imaginary numbers as accepted wisdom.

    For more on this phenomenon, feel free to Google "quarterback rating."

    Do all these things, and you will never be wrong.

    Except about the part where statistics -- any statistics and all statistics relating to the results of sporting contests between different teams at different times under different circumstances -- are boolsheet.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from unclealfie. Show unclealfie's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    In Response to Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams:
    [QUOTE]Here's how it works . . . You start with a premise . . .  any premise . . .  it doesn't matter. Then you gather statistics. Lots and lots of them. Then you pore over those numbers and you select the particular statistics that support the premise you have already decided is true. And if the numbers you're looking for don't exist, create some crazy formula (but don't call it a formula, formulae are for geeks; call it a "metric" -- metrics are totally awesome) that nobody with an actual life will ever have the time or patience to decipher, and then simply present your imaginary numbers as accepted wisdom. For more on this phenomenon, feel free to Google "quarterback rating." Do all these things, and you will never be wrong. Except about the part where statistics -- any statistics and all statistics relating to the results of sporting contests between different teams at different times under different circumstances -- are boolsheet.
    Posted by prairiemike[/QUOTE]

    Bingo Mike. One of the few things I remember from college (class of 1977) is that you can always gather a set of statistics to say anything you want them to say. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    The Defensive Hog Index measures distance given up per play.  If you are at 3rd and 1 five times a game and you go for a 20 yard pass every time and make two of those five, you get a tremendous boost against the Defensive Hog Index versus if you called five quarterback sneaks and made the first down all 5 times with 1 or 2 yards. 

    New England's offense is crushing opposing defenses flat.  I can't believe they're running over 70 offensive plays in one game.  Part of the Patriots' philosophy is the 10, 15 or 20 play drive which keeps the Patriots' defense off the field.  BB thinks the world of an almost sure 6 yards on a first down play (the bubble screen, the slant, a toss over the middle) versus going long against the prevent, where Peyton Manning might go bombing downfield whenever he can.

    On the other side, the Patriots are strong believers in bending but not breaking. Eventually the opponent messes up and it's first and 20, then third and 10.  The bend style of defense keeps point totals down.  It's not so good for the Hog Index. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from rtuinila. Show rtuinila's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    I thought the Hogs were in DC!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from BubbaInHawaii. Show BubbaInHawaii's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    In Response to Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams:
    [QUOTE]Here's how it works . . . You start with a premise . . .  any premise . . .  it doesn't matter. Then you gather statistics. Lots and lots of them. Then you pore over those numbers and you select the particular statistics that support the premise you have already decided is true. And if the numbers you're looking for don't exist, create some crazy formula (but don't call it a formula, formulae are for geeks; call it a "metric" -- metrics are totally awesome) that nobody with an actual life will ever have the time or patience to decipher, and then simply present your imaginary numbers as accepted wisdom. For more on this phenomenon, feel free to Google "quarterback rating." Do all these things, and you will never be wrong. Except about the part where statistics -- any statistics and all statistics relating to the results of sporting contests between different teams at different times under different circumstances -- are boolsheet.
    Posted by prairiemike[/QUOTE]

    There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.....lol

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from BubbaInHawaii. Show BubbaInHawaii's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    In Response to Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams:
    [QUOTE]The Defensive Hog Index measures distance given up per play.  If you are at 3rd and 1 five times a game and you go for a 20 yard pass every time and make two of those five, you get a tremendous boost against the Defensive Hog Index versus if you called five quarterback sneaks and made the first down all 5 times with 1 or 2 yards.  New England's offense is crushing opposing defenses flat.  I can't believe they're running over 70 offensive plays in one game.  Part of the Patriots' philosophy is the 10, 15 or 20 play drive which keeps the Patriots' defense off the field.  BB thinks the world of an almost sure 6 yards on a first down play (the bubble screen, the slant, a toss over the middle) versus going long against the prevent, where Peyton Manning might go bombing downfield whenever he can. On the other side, the Patriots are strong believers in bending but not breaking. Eventually the opponent messes up and it's first and 20, then third and 10.  The bend style of defense keeps point totals down.  It's not so good for the Hog Index. 
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    If our offense is crushing opponents flat, then why aren't we scoring more touchdowns in the red zone?
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    In Response to Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams : If our offense is crushing opponents flat, then why aren't we scoring more touchdowns in the red zone?
    Posted by BubbaInHawaii[/QUOTE]

    At least they've gotten to the red zone a whole lot.  In the Buffalo game, crushing the Buffalo defense may have been the secret to the Patriots' fourth quarter breakout.  The crushing Patriots offense also kept the potent Atlanta and Baltimore offenses off the field, limiting their scoring opportunities.  The Jets game was at least kept pretty close.  You can't say that you left your seat before the end of that game.  The Patriots can be quite a fourth quarter team.

    As for why they couldn't get the ball in the endzone for 2 games, it may be: 

    a poorly coordinated running game among strangers like Fred Taylor that had yet to come together (no running game means no punching it in)

    Brady, Brady, Galloway and receivers not being on the same page (Brady has gotten on the same page with himself since those games)

    and some random bad luck too.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sam-Adams. Show Sam-Adams's posts

    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    Are you kidding me? If you guys just opened it up and read it you'd understand it's only a snapshot of the total Defense and has nothing to do with where the overall D ranks or strength of schedule. 

    The Defensive Hog Index is our effort to quantify which team has the best defensive front in football.
     
    This isn't rocket science, folks. The Defensive Hog Index simply looks at at each team in three major, easy-to-understand categories and ranks them by average in these categories.
     
    The top defensive front is that which posts the highest average rating across the board. The Defensive Hog Index is based upon these criteria:
     
    YPA – Yards Per Attempt. So simple, even you can understand it. This rates a defense's ability to stuff an opposing ground game.
     
    NPP%  Negative Pass Plays, expressed as a percentage. This is how often an opponent's pass plays end in either a sack or interception. Defenses that get after the quarterback and overwhelm the opposing offensive line naturally force sacks and INTs. These negative pass plays are calculated as a percentage of attempts. So if a team foces two sacks and two INTs in 40 pass plays, their NPP% will be 10 percent (4/40).
     
    3down% - Opposition success rate on third down. The lower the percentage, the higher the defensive success.

    Now, based on this criteria they're ranked 23rd and it is what it is. 

    NO BIG DEAL-GO PATS
     
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    Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams

    In Response to Re: Defensive Hog Index - Patriots Tied For 23rd out of 32 Teams:
    [QUOTE]After looking over their website, a few thoughts come to mind: 1.)  If you are only going to use three stats to base the quality of a particular teams defense, then you should be using the three most critcal benchmarks when evaluating a defense.  That said, what is the number one objective of any defense?  To stop the other team from scoring.  Therefore one of the key benchmarks, and the one that should be given the most weight is points allowed per game by the defense.  On their website they ommit this benchmark in favor of yards per carry allowed by the opposing team's running backs.  Measuring how a team performs in defending the run is a great stat, but if I'm only going to use three stats in order to critique/evaluate NFL defenses, then  I'd much rather use the points allowed per game by the defense stat.  **** We rank #8 in points allowed per game **** 2.)  The second key objective of any defense is to create excellent field position for your offense.  Therefore the benchmark that has the greatest ability to produce this result, is forcing turnovers i.e., sacks, fumbles, interceptions etc....  The do use this stat which is great and therefore should be given the second highest weighting in evaluating defenses.  ****We rank #1 in forced fumbles, #15 in sacks, and are in a 3-way tie for #30 in interceptions per ESPN.****  3.)  Besides stopping other teams from scoring and creating good field position for your own offense, the third and final benchmark that I'd use would be the 3rd down conversion  % which once again this website does use. **** We are tied for 14th best in this stat per ESPN.**** Overall they do use 2 out the 3 most important stats for ranking defenses.  However, they also ommitted the single most critical stat in favor of a less important one which to me represents a critical flaw in their analysis. Furthermore, if you log onto ESPN, they have the Pats rated as #10 in Total Defense which takes into consideration yds/gm for passing, yds/gm for rushing, and pts/gm allowed.
    Posted by angel3781[/QUOTE]

    nice objective analysis :)
     

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