Re: for you stat nuts.
posted at 11/30/2012 12:50 AM EST
Stats are hard to construe. Everything about football is matchup based.
Baltimore had the second best run defense in the league last season. From what I remember, every time Ngata was taken off the field in the championship game, BJGE had a pretty easy time running the ball.
NYG had a a pretty bad defense statistically last season. However, they won because theyre defense matched up very well against pass heavy teams.
GB has a very explosive offense...except when it faces a team with a strong DLine. Even in his 1 good game against a strong d line (ARZ), Rodgers was only 14 of 30 for 218 yards. A strong defensive line matches up greatly against their O.
You can't generalize statistics, because every team is different. Your best shot is comparing similar teams.
HOU has good defensive stats. But a lot of those stats are skewed because they play a lot of run heavy/QB lacking teams. They lack a pass rush outside of Watt. For a team that can throw the ball as well as the Pats, I would say the ARZ defense matches up better against the NE offense than Houston's. You could argue overall HOU has ARZ beat, but in a matchup against NE, ARZ has NE beat.
I honestly can't wait for the HOU and SF game, mostly the SF game.
SF has the best overall defense in my opinion. However, I do believe the Pats are one of a few teams that can exploit it.
In their 3 worst games (MINN, NYG, STL) the opposition pounded the ball (34 rushes+7 Ponder runs for Minn, 34 rushes for NYG, 36 rushes for STL)
I thought the SEA gameplan earlier this season was absolutely terrible. SF and SEA are very similar defenses (Strong front 7's with a physical secondary). If you plan to air it out (like GB, Det, and NO) then this secondary is good enough to beat up your WRs and create small windows.
You can't beat SF with just a great running game or just a great passing game. SF D is one of the few D's that actually require a balanced O to beat them.
Baring an unusual bad day from that defense, I don't think a Brady show is good enough to beat them. We're going to need to see a Brady and Ridley show.
You can beat HOU with a Brady show though