Has anyone tried the play predictor?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    I found this very interesting and incitful honestly.

    http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/multimedia/patriots_play_predictor/

    Some interesting things I found. On first down it was pretty close to a 50/50 split in run pass.

    On 2nd down anything less then 5 yards and you can expect a run and anything above 5 yards you can expect a pass almost everytime.

    On 3rd down anything less the 2 yrds was a run and anything over 2yrds was a pass pretty much everytime!

    No wonder the Giants were able to pin their ears back on almost every play. They knew that they only needed to worry about the run on first down and if there was less then 5 yrds to go on 2nd down. Other then that they could line up in nickle and rush all day long. This is what most of us have been talking about. You need to mix it up more often which means you need to run it slightly more or at least try to run it more often on 3rd down. If for nothing else then to keep the D honest. My god a 5th grader with a madden playbook could call a good D play against the Pats last year on 3rd downs. Of course calling the right play and having the players to execute the play are two different things.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/multimedia/patriots_play_predictor/

    stupid link button not working
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    I found this very interesting and incitful honestly.

    http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/multimedia/patriots_play_predictor/

    Some interesting things I found. On first down it was pretty close to a 50/50 split in run pass.

    On 2nd down anything less then 5 yards and you can expect a run and anything above 5 yards you can expect a pass almost everytime.

    On 3rd down anything less the 2 yrds was a run and anything over 2yrds was a pass pretty much everytime!

    No wonder the Giants were able to pin their ears back on almost every play. They knew that they only needed to worry about the run on first down and if there was less then 5 yrds to go on 2nd down. Other then that they could line up in nickle and rush all day long. This is what most of us have been talking about. You need to mix it up more often which means you need to run it slightly more or at least try to run it more often on 3rd down. If for nothing else then to keep the D honest. My god a 5th grader with a madden playbook could call a good D play against the Pats last year on 3rd downs. Of course calling the right play and having the players to execute the play are two different things.



    Looks to me like 2nd down and less than 5 is about a 50/50 split, and 2nd and more than 5 favors pass.  Nothing was really shocking here since its basically the same thing for every team I've ever seen play.  

    Maybe if you get a job as an OC you can bring the run the ball on third and long philosophy to the NFL but right now the Patriots and every other team are going to go with the play that brings the highest csuccessful a first down in long yardage situations and that's a pass.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from tcal2-. Show tcal2-'s posts

    Re: Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    I'd like too see the splits under Weiss.  
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    Re: Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    It was predictable in a lot of situations where more than 75 percent of the time they threw.  Then when you see the formation at the line it makes it even easier for a defense to know what you are going to do. The Patriots were very predictable on offense but that's probably true for most all of the teams. With the great quarterback and tight ends in a passing league you would expect them to throw more. I'm hoping that they can get an effective running game going this year, they would be far more difficult for defenses to predict what they are up to. 

    Nothing really surprised me, on 3rd and over 5 yards with that running game I think that I would throw every time lol..
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    Re: Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    In response to tcal2-'s comment:

    I'd like too see the splits under Weiss.  



    I never had a clue what Weiss would call, if I tried I was wrong most of the time. They would run a play and i'd be like,, what are they doing..... then 20 yard gain and i'm like ok that was a great call...    The AFC Championship against the Steelers in 2004, never saw the reverse to Branch coming on that play,, touchdown..    Weiss did a great job with Brady and the Patriot offense.
     
  7. This post has been removed.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from nyjoseph. Show nyjoseph's posts

    Re: Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    A ton of this has to do with personnel IMO.  When you look at Kevin Faulk in his best years, even when he was in on 3rd down he might take a draw on 3rd and 8.  Or catch a swing pass or a check down.  We are still looking for the Kevin Faulk type of back.  Third and mid-distance is more unpredictable when you've got a back that can do just about anything.
     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    I just ran the numbers . . . yeah, on third and medium-to-long they passed a lot.  Every team does that. I didn't see the trend that Pats Eng describes on second down.  Here are the run percentages on second down:

    2 and 1: 72% (32 plays)
    2 and 2: 64% (28 plays)
    2 and 3: 56% (18 plays)
    2 and 4: 52% (27 plays)
    2 and 5: 46% (35 plays)
    2 and 6: 37% (27 plays)
    2 and 7: 15% (27 plays)
    2 and 8: 46% (24 plays)
    2 and 9: 7% (28 plays)
    2 and 10: 38% (73 plays)
    2 and 11+:17% (53 plays)




     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    Another thing that's worth pointing out. The diversity of an offense can't be reduced simply to pass vs run.  It's not like there are just two plays.  There are lots of different pass plays and lots of different run plays.  So even if you're expecting a pass (or a run), that doesn't mean you know what  type of pass or what type of run.  
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rajon-Hondo. Show Rajon-Hondo's posts

    Re: Has anyone tried the play predictor?

    Some pass plays I.E screens and quick outs and slats are are used in the NFL as running plays.
     

Share