How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    How important is Wes Welker?  We are talking Targets and Receptions here folks.  Pretty impressive when you consider how important Wes Welker is to the Patriots offense and why he should continue to be a Patriots well beyond this season.

    Also, take a look at his targets and receptions compared to the top 2 receivers in the league, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald as of week 9, and also compared to who many people say is the new top slot receiver in the league, Victor Cruz.  So far this season Welker gets open and catches the ball 72.29% of the time compared to just 54.26% of the time for Fitzgerald and 66.67% of the time for Johnson.  While Cruz gets open and catches the ball only 57% of the time.

    Wes Welker for the last 6 1/2 years has gone below 70% only once, back in 2006 while Fitzgerald and Johnson hasn't gone over 70% ever in the last 6 1/2 years and Cruz not once in the 1 1/2 years he has played so far.

    Sure these receivers don't have TFB throwing to them and they don't have the same offense the Patriots have but what this shows to me is Wes Welker finds ways to get open and get the ball.  These percentages are outstanding and vital to the Patriots offense.  Also, don't talk to me about Welker dropping balls, at the percentage that he gets open and makes the reception I will take some dropped balls here and there.

    No doubt about it, Welker should be considered the top receiver of the league.  These numbers are freaking amazing. Laughable compared to the top 2 receivers of the league and extra laughable to the 'New Best Slot Receiver'.

    Discuss!

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    In my humble opinion I have never seen any receiver get open as consistently as Wes.  Wes, runs shorter routes so I'm not sure the percent completion is as relevant vs deep threat guys like Fitz since those guys also generate more yards. 

    What would be interesting would be to see how many of the Patriots pass plays go to Wes.  My gut feeling is that in years passed Wes accounting for half of the pass attempts in this offense and this year it's probably far less.  I think that's a good thing for versatility.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    But the issue is not how good Wes has been. That has been fairly well established over the past year of these posts. The question is what is his value moving forward? The Pats are taking the stance that they will not pay Wes for past performance. They are also taking the stance there will be regression in years 2,3 and 4 of his next contract, simply due to age. 

    Its been pretty well documented that the Pats feel the rest of the NFL agrees, and that the Pats are comfortable telling Wes to find his best deal, and give them the courtesy of last call. I think at the end of the day, Wes will find most of the NFL agrees with the Pats $$$ value on Wes, and he will end up signing a contract with the Pats. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from anonymis. Show anonymis's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    Offensively, I think they would survive w/o Welker. I'd rather the Patriots spend money on improving the secondary, pass rush, or OL (especially w/ run blocking and protecting the QB).

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    In response to anonymis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Offensively, I think they would survive w/o Welker. I'd rather the Patriots spend money on improving the secondary, pass rush, or OL (especially w/ run blocking and protecting the QB).

    [/QUOTE]

    A "fair" deal with Wes will allow the Pats to do all of that. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from viewer222. Show viewer222's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    But the issue is not how good Wes has been. That has been fairly well established over the past year of these posts. The question is what is his value moving forward? The Pats are taking the stance that they will not pay Wes for past performance. They are also taking the stance there will be regression in years 2,3 and 4 of his next contract, simply due to age. 

    Its been pretty well documented that the Pats feel the rest of the NFL agrees, and that the Pats are comfortable telling Wes to find his best deal, and give them the courtesy of last call. I think at the end of the day, Wes will find most of the NFL agrees with the Pats $$$ value on Wes, and he will end up signing a contract with the Pats. 

    [/QUOTE]Response: especially to this line:"The Pats are taking the stance that they will not pay Wes for past performance."
    One of the biggest factors when negotiating a new conyract is--- PAST PERFORMANCE especially recent past performance. McDaniels choice to try to do without Welker at the beginning of the year, illustrates that Wes has not lost anything!

    Also this stupid quote" most of the NFL agrees with the Pats $$$ value on Wes"

    It only takes ONE team that thinks that Wes is worthy of a solid contract. What are the chances that no team will offer him a substancial contract?---- NONE

    Also the general tone of your statements does not paint a very nice picture of the Pats management=Sliding by without rewarding one of the teams most productive players (Actually on offense, Wes is the second most productive player after Brady)

    I don't agree with that tone  The Patriots have rewarded VW and Brady. though the Pats management has not always "stepped up to the plate", they have in situations. Nobody wants to play for teams that don't reward productive players.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from anonymis. Show anonymis's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to anonymis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Offensively, I think they would survive w/o Welker. I'd rather the Patriots spend money on improving the secondary, pass rush, or OL (especially w/ run blocking and protecting the QB).

    [/QUOTE]

    A "fair" deal with Wes will allow the Pats to do all of that. 

    [/QUOTE]


    What do the Patriots or you define as "fair"? Obviously, the Patriots already offered what was fair - and Welker did not accept.

    In addition, what would be best for the team overall - keeping in mind that the greatest team weaknesses still include the pass rush, secondary, and OL (not necessarily in the order of importance).

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    Gronk doesn't even beat those percentages.  I don't think you can find anyone in the league at any position slot/wr/te that can beat those percentages Wes has.

    If they let Welker walk, there will not be anyone who can come in and do that. 

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    In response to viewer222's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    But the issue is not how good Wes has been. That has been fairly well established over the past year of these posts. The question is what is his value moving forward? The Pats are taking the stance that they will not pay Wes for past performance. They are also taking the stance there will be regression in years 2,3 and 4 of his next contract, simply due to age. 

    Its been pretty well documented that the Pats feel the rest of the NFL agrees, and that the Pats are comfortable telling Wes to find his best deal, and give them the courtesy of last call. I think at the end of the day, Wes will find most of the NFL agrees with the Pats $$$ value on Wes, and he will end up signing a contract with the Pats. 

    [/QUOTE]Response: especially to this line:"The Pats are taking the stance that they will not pay Wes for past performance."
    One of the biggest factors when negotiating a new conyract is--- PAST PERFORMANCE especially recent past performance. McDaniels choice to try to do without Welker at the beginning of the year, illustrates that Wes has not lost anything!

    I didn't say Wes has lost anything. I said that the Pats feel that in years 2,3 potential Wes gets to 4, Wes won't be catching 100 balls a year. Especially if Hernandez and Gronk can stay healthy. 

    Also this stupid quote" most of the NFL agrees with the Pats $$$ value on Wes"

    It only takes ONE team that thinks that Wes is worthy of a solid contract. What are the chances that no team will offer him a substancial contract?---- NONE

    If Pats don't reach an agreement with Wes, they will franchise him again. Pats will be happy to pay him 1/$11 or 2/$18. They probably would go 3/$24 with $16 guaranteed. I think it's pretty obvious Pats have read the market correctly, and no one is paying more than that for Wes.

    Also the general tone of your statements does not paint a very nice picture of the Pats management=Sliding by without rewarding one of the teams most productive players (Actually on offense, Wes is the second most productive player after Brady)

    Wow, talk about a stupid comment. 

    I don't agree with that tone  The Patriots have rewarded VW and Brady. though the Pats management has not always "stepped up to the plate", they have in situations. Nobody wants to play for teams that don't reward productive players.

    Pats aren't "rewarding" anyone. They will pay what they perceive to be fair market value for go forward performance. Go ask Asante, Seymour, Vrabel, Vinatieri, Branch, Mankins et al how nice the Pats are. 

    [/QUOTE]


     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from sporter81. Show sporter81's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    The Pats are not cheap, they are the 2nd highest paying team in the league. I don't know where this comes from. They try to manage the cap by not giving guys who were great in the past but beyond their prime a huge contract  

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/20092780/which-nfl-teams-are-throwing-the-most-cash-around-not-who-you-think

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    Let me add to the list....

     

    Just more and more impressive for Welker.  The dude finds a way to get open and get the ball far better then the other top receivers out there. 

    These numbers are mind blowing in Welkers favor.  LOL at all the people who say he is getting old and dropping more balls.  WHAT? With numbers like this he can drop some balls cause he still outperforms everyone else.  It's not even close!!

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from FrnkBnhm. Show FrnkBnhm's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    I don't think you need a bunch of numbers to even figure out how important he is to this offense. For one thing, he is still Brady's go to guy for most of the game. 

    The joke is the idea that Edelman or Lloyd or one of TE's can replace his productivity. Welker has a unique skill set in the NFL. He may not be the "best" receiver in the league, but I have not seen another guy who does what he does consistently... He just get open. 

    I hope the Pats come to their senses and pay the guy.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from darwk. Show darwk's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    Thanks for the chart- always good to see stats and compare. No doubt about Wes's value to the Pats- past, present, and future.  The tangiable's can be seen in black and white. I like what he brings that can't be measured in numbers. He is an "iron man", tough, conditioned,leaves everything on the field, every game. He's smart about the x's and o's.  He's the kind of team mate that would always have your back- and he defintely has the trust and respect of TB.

    He's one of my faovrite Patriots of the last 12 years or so.  Off the field Wes "unplugged" is hilarious.  Not the Gronk goofbal comedy. Wes has a sharp wit that must be fun in the locker room. Would love to see Wes retire a Patriot with Brady.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    In response to FrnkBnhm's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I don't think you need a bunch of numbers to even figure out how important he is to this offense. For one thing, he is still Brady's go to guy for most of the game. 

    The joke is the idea that Edelman or Lloyd or one of TE's can replace his productivity. Welker has a unique skill set in the NFL. He may not be the "best" receiver in the league, but I have not seen another guy who does what he does consistently... He just get open. 

    I hope the Pats come to their senses and pay the guy.

    [/QUOTE]


    No, you don't need numbers to see how important Wes is to the Patriots offense but when you see these type of numbers compared to the other top receivers, it's just mind blowing!!!  It's mind blowing how much more Welker gets open and catches the ball when he is targeted compared to the other top receivers.

    Very laughable to think Edelman or even Amendola or anyone else can come in and do this.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    to put things also in a different perspective, Wes is NEVER double covered...he also doesnt have Drew Stanton, Kevin Kolb, John Skelton and Jim Corgi throwing the ball his way.

    I stand by my comment above. The Pats have correctly read the market for Wes, and he does not get an offer from any team higher than what the Pats offer

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from PATSthebest. Show PATSthebest's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    PAts need to keep Wes. Other than Gronk there's no one you can count on game to game. Loyd great hands but hasn't really jelled with Brady yet, Deon is done, Edleman good not great, Hernandez, great if he plays but  to injury prone.

    Brady's game is the short game, Wes's is the best in that part of the field.

    If the Pats let him go after this season, I'm sure Peyton Manning would love to see him is Orange. 

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    to put things also in a different perspective, Wes is NEVER double covered...he also doesnt have Drew Stanton, Kevin Kolb, John Skelton and Jim Corgi throwing the ball his way.

    I stand by my comment above. The Pats have correctly read the market for Wes, and he does not get an offer from any team higher than what the Pats offer

    [/QUOTE]

    I stand by my comment-as an objective outsider and opponent who has faced your team twice in the Big Game- you really ought to pay the man...ever think it's possible there are times to throw away the cold logic and the rigid business model and do what's right on every other level? as much as you seem to think this is IBM or the NYSE it's not-it's a football team and there are things that transcend that on and off the field, including the feelings and comfort level of ur HOF QB-who's very presence puts a major crimp in ur argument because without him and BB I don't think the Pats have anywhere near the success you have had using your "market value" strategy

    Hey if you guys let him he will be snapped up fast by someone-hope it's my team!

    [/QUOTE]

    of course exceptions are made. BUt how smart is it to make an exception for a WR in his 33, 34 and 35 years age?

    I am not saying the Pats wont resign Wes. I think they will. I simply think that the Pats have read the market correctly.

    If "your team" keeps and pays fair market value for Nicks and Cruz, and with Eli's CAP number, if they sign Wes for 3/$27 guaranteed they will not have budget to keep on winning. They will be the Jets part 2. Some teams, like the Jets want this business model. Win now, and then rebuild. The Pats want to win every year and rebuild while they are winning. I am betting the Jints feel the same way.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    to put things also in a different perspective, Wes is NEVER double covered...he also doesnt have Drew Stanton, Kevin Kolb, John Skelton and Jim Corgi throwing the ball his way.

    I stand by my comment above. The Pats have correctly read the market for Wes, and he does not get an offer from any team higher than what the Pats offer

    [/QUOTE]

    Wes is never double covered??  What?? 

    Also, in 2006 WW got open and caught 67.68% of his targets when he played for the Dolphins who finished 6-10 and had Daunte Culpepper throwing to him.  Still 67.68% is better then most of the top receivers ever had.  I tell ya, it's mind blowing, there is no way to argue it, Wes Welker gets open and catches his targeted passes.  Plain and simple, numbers do not lie!!

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jam757. Show jam757's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    Of course he deserves a three year 30+ million dollar deal. They guy is tough as nails and one of the team leaders. Pats fans have continued to take him for granted year after year. The decision to pay Hernandez FAT money isn't looking like a great one now. He hasn't consistently styed o the field. Sure there's still time to turn that around but this guy needs to stay healthy for 16 games and put up 1000 plus yards to justify that contract. Welker is not "easily" replaceable and Pats fans should realize that. You think this offense struggles at times now wait until he's gone and check back. Also, for all the bitchin' about Brady and the offense we are puting up 33.2 ppg!!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rerun85. Show Rerun85's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    I'd say there's a good chance the Pats will Franchise him again. That will give him a raise and we'll have him for one more year.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: How important is Wes Welker and why he should stay a Patriot well beyond this season

    In response to TFB12's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    to put things also in a different perspective, Wes is NEVER double covered...he also doesnt have Drew Stanton, Kevin Kolb, John Skelton and Jim Corgi throwing the ball his way.

    I stand by my comment above. The Pats have correctly read the market for Wes, and he does not get an offer from any team higher than what the Pats offer

    [/QUOTE]

    Wes is never double covered??  What?? 

    Also, in 2006 WW got open and caught 67.68% of his targets when he played for the Dolphins who finished 6-10 and had Daunte Culpepper throwing to him.  Still 67.68% is better then most of the top receivers ever had.  I tell ya, it's mind blowing, there is no way to argue it, Wes Welker gets open and catches his targeted passes.  Plain and simple, numbers do not lie!!

    [/QUOTE]

    Wes lined up wide is NEVER double covered. Wes lined up in the slot 50% of the time is covered by a line backer.

    Right or wrong, not for me to say, but no team plans for the Pats around Wes. No team goes into a game saying if Wes is stopped, the Pats can be beat (maybe they should)

    Numbers dont lie, but can be manipulated any which way. How many of Wes' catches this year have been of the screen variety either behind the line of scrimage, or 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Pats arent targeting Wes regularly down field. 

     

     

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