I feel a draft..

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to geek's comment:

    Value chart says we gae 640 to get 659.  Not such a huge bargain.




    good point.  I would have taken Hunter there at 29.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from agill1970. Show agill1970's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    Is Alfonzo Denard a JAG?

    How about Shane Vereen and Stephen Ridley?

    Or Gronkowski, Spikes, and Hernandez?

    Sebastian Vollmer?

    Julian Eldleman?

    My point?  1st rounders are no guarantee and in just the last few years BB has done very well outside of the 1st round. 

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from MattC05. Show MattC05's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to bredbruu's comment:


    thats good still going to be a long shot to be a plsu plyer never mind a game changer



    There was no game changer available at 29.  This allows them to double dip at a position of need to double their chances of hitting on a solid player; you know, like they did with Vereen (2nd) / Ridley (3rd) and Gronk (2nd) /Hernandez (4th).  Both of those worked out pretty well.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbruu. Show bredbruu's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to UD6's comment:

    ok - I am a little tired of the excess Belichick love and others bashing.  Minnesota just picked up 3 first rounders.  If the pats had pulled that off everyone would be saying how brilliant it was. 

    Remember NFL rosters are limited and most of the players under contract stick.  Teams have 7 draft choices and many/most? don't stick or stick for a short period of time.  The best players year over year end up in the first and second rounds.  Minnesota just took 3. 

    I am willing to bet that the pats didn't see value anymore and were able to turn that feeling into extra picks, but remember, there's no guarantee those picks stick.



    "If the pats had pulled that off everyone would be saying how brilliant it was. "

    im not a hater, and i wouldnt threaten leaving a board esp if i were nto a fan of that team; but your point is on point.

    if you move up, who cares howmany picks you give up in later rounds and you get 3 studs in rd 1, any team would be pleased.

    lets see waht bb gets.

    i hope its not just another christmas for bb yippeee i got more choices to make

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    If we come out with a combo of Hunt/Collins, Hankins/Williams/Jenkins, Wheaton/Bailey/Rogers, Taylor/Slay/Mathieu it'd be pretty happy but I'm worried abut Minn's picks being so late. The later you go in the draft the less likely someone will contribute which holds true even for BB.

    I can see him double dipping in both the CB and WR positions though with 5 picks in the next 70

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbruu. Show bredbruu's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to MattC05's comment:

    In response to bredbruu's comment:

     


    thats good still going to be a long shot to be a plsu plyer never mind a game changer

     



    There was no game changer available at 29.  This allows them to double dip at a position of need to double their chances of hitting on a solid player; you know, like they did with Vereen (2nd) / Ridley (3rd) and Gronk (2nd) /Hernandez (4th).  Both of those worked out pretty well.

     



    liek i asked earlier who is a faller due to off the field issues and still a player beyond da rick rogers

    and small school charles johnson

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from CablesWyndBairn. Show CablesWyndBairn's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    The whole Mallet thing is a bit of a wildcard, but with Barkley and Smith still there you'd have to think a trade is a bit less likely. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to agill1970's comment:

    Is Alfonzo Denard a JAG?

    How about Shane Vereen and Stephen Ridley?

    Or Gronkowski, Spikes, and Hernandez?

    Sebastian Vollmer?

    Julian Eldleman?

    My point?  1st rounders are no guarantee and in just the last few years BB has done very well outside of the 1st round. 

     

     



    and he's also had a lot of failures outside the 1st. BB picks on average 9 players in the draft you are bound to find players outside the first when you pick so many to begin with. The question is, does he hit on those types of players this year or do we look back on this year at what could have been. I'm more wondering what he's going to do with so many rooks. We didn't have a ton of holes going into the draft (maybe 4-5) and now he has 8 picks.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbruu. Show bredbruu's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    If we come out with a combo of Hunt/Collins, Hankins/Williams/Jenkins, Wheaton/Bailey/Rogers, Taylor/Slay/Mathieu it'd be pretty happy but I'm worried abut Minn's picks being so late. The later you go in the draft the less likely someone will contribute which holds true even for BB.

    I can see him double dipping in both the CB and WR positions though with 5 picks in the next 70



    why doubel cb we only need one.

    id take hunt, hankins (maybe jenkins), rogers,slay/ taylor, dobosn/ t willimas, charles johsnon.

    no way hankins or hunt makes it to us i believe

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    Relax... as expected only one QB taken in the first. At least a couple of teams pull the trigger on QBs (Barkley, Nassib and Smith).

    Guessin: Barkley to JAX or PHI. Nassib will be taken next. Maybe ARI.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to agill1970's comment:

    Is Alfonzo Denard a JAG?

    How about Shane Vereen and Stephen Ridley?

    Or Gronkowski, Spikes, and Hernandez?

    Sebastian Vollmer?

    Julian Eldleman?

    My point?  1st rounders are no guarantee and in just the last few years BB has done very well outside of the 1st round. 



    Don't let the moaners sway you, that 6th round guy Brady by BB or 7th round pick Rodney Harrison by the Chargers were pretty good also...  2nd and 3rd rounders would be 1st rounders if not for some stupid moves by the Vikings and others.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to bredbruu's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    If we come out with a combo of Hunt/Collins, Hankins/Williams/Jenkins, Wheaton/Bailey/Rogers, Taylor/Slay/Mathieu it'd be pretty happy but I'm worried abut Minn's picks being so late. The later you go in the draft the less likely someone will contribute which holds true even for BB.

    I can see him double dipping in both the CB and WR positions though with 5 picks in the next 70

     



    why doubel cb we only need one.

     

    id take hunt, hankins (maybe jenkins), rogers,slay/ taylor, dobosn/ t willimas, charles johsnon.

    no way hankins or hunt makes it to us i believe



    Do we only need one? Ras is a huge question mark medically and do you really see Cole as a CB? In todays NFL you need 3 starting caliber CB's and 2 good backups. If you see Ras as a good backup then yes only 1 is needed but if you are worried Ras won't make it throught the year then having 2 wouldn't hurt

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from MattC05. Show MattC05's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to bredbruu's comment:

    why doubel cb we only need one.

    BECAUSE YOU DON'T KNOW HOW COLLEGE PLAYERS WILL TRANSITION TO THE PROS. 

    ESPECIALLY with the little guys like CBs and WRs.  Those two positions have the biggest bust rate in the NFL, not just for BB drafting them.  You take TWO to increase your odds that one of them hits.

    You MIGHT get a better player at 29; you also MIGHT get a colossal bust.  With picks in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th, there's very good chance now that ONE of those players hits, and maybe 2 or even all 3.  The draft is a crap shoot, not a science.  That's why it's so fun to debate.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbruu. Show bredbruu's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to bredbruu's comment:

     

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    If we come out with a combo of Hunt/Collins, Hankins/Williams/Jenkins, Wheaton/Bailey/Rogers, Taylor/Slay/Mathieu it'd be pretty happy but I'm worried abut Minn's picks being so late. The later you go in the draft the less likely someone will contribute which holds true even for BB.

    I can see him double dipping in both the CB and WR positions though with 5 picks in the next 70

     



    why doubel cb we only need one.

     

    id take hunt, hankins (maybe jenkins), rogers,slay/ taylor, dobosn/ t willimas, charles johsnon.

    no way hankins or hunt makes it to us i believe

     



    Do we only need one? Ras is a huge question mark medically and do you really see Cole as a CB? In todays NFL you need 3 starting caliber CB's and 2 good backups. If you see Ras as a good backup then yes only 1 is needed but if you are worried Ras won't make it throught the year then having 2 wouldn't hurt

     



    you have been making my points all year.cole is backfill

    between dowling and the rest i expect one will get dinged so one more

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    lest you forget - beguette, dowling, mallett, price, brace, butler, tate, mckenzie, orhnberger, wheatley, crable, oconnell, wilhite. 

    on the other hand, the pats haven't had an unproductive 1st rounder in the last 5 years.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbruu. Show bredbruu's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to MattC05's comment:

    In response to bredbruu's comment:

     

    why doubel cb we only need one.

     

     

    BECAUSE YOU DON'T KNOW HOW COLLEGE PLAYERS WILL TRANSITION TO THE PROS. 

    ESPECIALLY with the little guys like CBs and WRs.  Those two positions have the biggest bust rate in the NFL, not just for BB drafting them.  You take TWO to increase your odds that one of them hits.

    You MIGHT get a better player at 29; you also MIGHT get a colossal bust.  With picks in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th, there's very good chance now that ONE of those players hits, and maybe 2 or even all 3.  The draft is a crap shoot, not a science.  That's why it's so fun to debate.



    bb can miss on 2 cbs or wrs as easily as 1 esp in lower rounds.

    well see what we get. no comment till then ok.

    but im not ecstaic like many

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbruu. Show bredbruu's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to MattC05's comment:

    In response to bredbruu's comment:

     

    why doubel cb we only need one.

     

     

    BECAUSE YOU DON'T KNOW HOW COLLEGE PLAYERS WILL TRANSITION TO THE PROS. 

    ESPECIALLY with the little guys like CBs and WRs.  Those two positions have the biggest bust rate in the NFL, not just for BB drafting them.  You take TWO to increase your odds that one of them hits.

    You MIGHT get a better player at 29; you also MIGHT get a colossal bust.  With picks in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th, there's very good chance now that ONE of those players hits, and maybe 2 or even all 3.  The draft is a crap shoot, not a science.  That's why it's so fun to debate.



    yup

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from MattC05. Show MattC05's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to UD6's comment:

    on the other hand, the pats haven't had an unproductive 1st rounder in the last 5 years.



    That's because they don't waste first rounders when there isn't a sure thing available.  There was no "first round talent" available at #29.

    "lest you forget - beguette, dowling, mallett, price, brace, butler, tate, mckenzie, orhnberger, wheatley, crable, oconnell, wilhite. " - and you forgot Dennard, Vereen, Ridley, Gronk, Spikes, Hernandez, Mesko, Deaderick, Vollmer, Edelman and Slater.  Gee, it's almost like they're 50/50 picking in the 2nd-6th rounds.  Makes sense to grab 3 additional picks in that range, then.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to MattC05's comment:

    In response to bredbruu's comment:

     

    why doubel cb we only need one.

     

     

    BECAUSE YOU DON'T KNOW HOW COLLEGE PLAYERS WILL TRANSITION TO THE PROS. 

    ESPECIALLY with the little guys like CBs and WRs.  Those two positions have the biggest bust rate in the NFL, not just for BB drafting them.  You take TWO to increase your odds that one of them hits.

    You MIGHT get a better player at 29; you also MIGHT get a colossal bust.  With picks in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th, there's very good chance now that ONE of those players hits, and maybe 2 or even all 3.  The draft is a crap shoot, not a science.  That's why it's so fun to debate.



    The problem with that is statistically the average hit rate drops by 2/3rds for each round you move. So statistically speaking that 1 1st has a better chance of hitting then a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th combined. Of course that doesn't take talent into account. If the talent lever from the back of the 1st to the early 4th is the same then yes taking more players is the better move, however, we have to see the talent drop off from #29 to #52 before making a decision to if that's the right move

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to MattC05's comment:

    In response to UD6's comment:

     

    on the other hand, the pats haven't had an unproductive 1st rounder in the last 5 years.

     



    That's because they don't waste first rounders when there isn't a sure thing available.  There was no "first round talent" available at #29.

     

    "lest you forget - beguette, dowling, mallett, price, brace, butler, tate, mckenzie, orhnberger, wheatley, crable, oconnell, wilhite. " - and you forgot Dennard, Vereen, Ridley, Gronk, Spikes, Hernandez, Mesko, Deaderick, Vollmer, Edelman and Slater.  Gee, it's almost like they're 50/50 picking in the 2nd-6th rounds.  Makes sense to grab 3 additional picks in that range, then.




    only looked at 2nd 3rd and 4th rdrs of the last 5 years (that's where their picks are).  certainly there was some success there, but more that did not stick. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from gogogopats. Show gogogopats's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    Some BDC posters feelings got hurt by the pats trade down today ��

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from MattC05. Show MattC05's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to PatsEng's comment:


    The problem with that is statistically the average hit rate drops by 2/3rds for each round you move. So statistically speaking that 1 1st has a better chance of hitting then a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th combined. Of course that doesn't take talent into account. If the talent lever from the back of the 1st to the early 4th is the same then yes taking more players is the better move, however, we have to see the talent drop off from #29 to #52 before making a decision to if that's the right move



    That hit rate also drops off for each third of the first round.  A #29 is much less likely to hit than a #9 or a #19.  And my feeling is that this year, that #29 pick would have been the talent level of a mid 2nd in years past.  Once Datone Jones came off the board, I think there wasn't really anyone who blew my panties off.

    Patterson?  Frederick?  Ogletree?  Elam?  If those are the 29-32 picks, I'll take my chances with 3 mid rounders.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to MattC05's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     


    The problem with that is statistically the average hit rate drops by 2/3rds for each round you move. So statistically speaking that 1 1st has a better chance of hitting then a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th combined. Of course that doesn't take talent into account. If the talent lever from the back of the 1st to the early 4th is the same then yes taking more players is the better move, however, we have to see the talent drop off from #29 to #52 before making a decision to if that's the right move

     



    That hit rate also drops off for each third of the first round.  A #29 is much less likely to hit than a #9 or a #19.  And my feeling is that this year, that #29 pick would have been the talent level of a mid 2nd in years past.  Once Datone Jones came off the board, I think there wasn't really anyone who blew my panties off.

     

    Patterson?  Frederick?  Ogletree?  Elam?  If those are the 29-32 picks, I'll take my chances with 3 mid rounders.



    If that 2nd wasn't so far back in the round it would have been a great trade but as it stands being so far back does bring up the question if a J Williams, Hunt, Hankins, or Taylor come off the board before the Pats pick again and they turn into a solid starting caliber player or worse another Matthews was it the right move? We'll have to wait and see who they get with those picks and who might fall to them but I'm not going to proclaim itas a bad or good move right now until we see the picks first.

     
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