Is there a better recipe for draft success?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moskk. Show moskk's posts

    Is there a better recipe for draft success?

    What constitutes a HIGH football IQ when it comes to delivering sound assessment ? Is it possible to elevate our collective knowledge of the game when our frame of reference has never been defined? What constitutes art, what constitutes science and is genius really a clever blend of both?

    For instance, can we construct a reference model for each position in football and tell how measureables relate to performance?  Can we then SHOW how actual collegiate performance blends the art to compliment the science?

    Are there indicators for player commitment, how a player will perform when faced with adversity? What do we mean when we say that his football speed is "better-than" his testing speed?  Is it better anticipation, recognition or luck? Was it measureables that made Larry Bird an elite player?  How do we recognize the art based on past performance?  When is level of competition relevant? Loose hips?
    Bull rush? Quick first step? Ted Williams eyesight? Rajon Rondo elite athleticism?
    Hand size, arm length, lateral mobility...Player IQ.......
     
    We understand the genius of BB and still recognize that his formula for talent evaluation is faulted.  Yet we suggest draft choices on the basis of BB's "indicators" which stress measureables...size, weight, speed...  If that's all it takes why so many misses?

    This board with it's collective brainpower and purported football IQ could try to construct an evaluation model that closes some of the gap in BB's talent assessment. Those unfamiliar with the mistakes in history are bound to repeat them....

    I wonder if a well constructed framework for talent evaluation can elevate poster draft input and minimize personal bias?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from GadisRKO. Show GadisRKO's posts

    Re: Is there a better recipe for draft success?

    The two things you really can't measure are a big part of whether or not a draft pick will work out.

    Injuries and a players drive to succeed. Both things, you can't measure or solve pre-draft. A guy can say he wants to succeed in the NFL, look like a good kid coming out of college but once they get the money, things may change on the spot and they may lose interest/stop caring.

    Someone may start and not miss a single game in college then proceed to blow out their knee in OTA's or Minicamp. Things you can't compute can make or brake a draft pick.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Is there a better recipe for draft success?

    Well I think all the measurables are just about covered for every team - what they feel is important for their system (short shuttle, 40, arm length, etc.) The thing you always hear is that you can't measure heart, they have no clue how a guy will respond when you stuff a million plus dollars in his pocket and set him free upon a big city. Add in an injury, the media, jealous veterans, a new girlfriend, the old one, new friends, the old ones, 2700 square foot condo (with jacuzzi tub), Ferrari Spider (with snow tires), a private flight to Mexico with 16 of your closest friends during the bye week, your first offseason back in your old sleepy town were you get into a fight at the 4th of July fireworks display with your high school sweet heart's new boyfriend...it's easy to see why millions spent on scouting could be better used on bobble head research.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Is there a better recipe for draft success?

    Reconstructing football smarts sounds the most difficult.

    Game speed, however, is easy to reconstruct, along with playing strength. 

    Just because you mastered the bench, doesn't mean you play with great leverage. Many of these players spend more time in the gym than they do in practice, and bench pressing, while distantly related to playing offensive or defensive line, is not exactly the same. It's a different stance, you are not horizontal, and your feet/hips/knees are as (or more) important than your arms and elbows and shoulders. I mean, one, just one good coaching technique is teaching your young lineman to keep their head and bodies upfield. If you are moving forward in a straight line you are maximizing the focus of your effort. 
    A man pushing straight forward will almost always outpush a guy who is wavering from side to side as he pushes. Thus he has better functional playing strength than the other player, who might have ten more reps on a bench.

    Also, game speed is easier to assess on film than it is by watching 40yd dashes. The problem, for me, is that the 40 dash is not really relevant to most positions. Other than DE's, who starts a play as if they were in blocks? So much of what makes a good 40 yard  dash, and can make one player seem much slower in timed relation to another, is his ability to master the form of sprinting off of block. This has little to do with how fast this player will run flat-footed, with other people on the field, while he is trying to recall his assignment, hold a football, dodge a tackle, etc. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Is there a better recipe for draft success?

    In Response to Re: Is there a better recipe for draft success?:
    [QUOTE]Reconstructing football smarts sounds the most difficult. Game speed, however, is easy to reconstruct, along with playing strength.  Just because you mastered the bench, doesn't mean you play with great leverage. Many of these players spend more time in the gym than they do in practice, and bench pressing, while distantly related to playing offensive or defensive line, is not exactly the same. It's a different stance, you are not horizontal, and your feet/hips/knees are as (or more) important than your arms and elbows and shoulders. I mean, one, just one good coaching technique is teaching your young lineman to keep their head and bodies upfield. If you are moving forward in a straight line you are maximizing the focus of your effort.  A man pushing straight forward will almost always outpush a guy who is wavering from side to side as he pushes. Thus he has better functional playing strength than the other player, who might have ten more reps on a bench. Also, game speed is easier to assess on film than it is by watching 40yd dashes. The problem, for me, is that the 40 dash is not really relevant to most positions. Other than DE's, who starts a play as if they were in blocks? So much of what makes a good 40 yard  dash, and can make one player seem much slower in timed relation to another, is his ability to master the form of sprinting off of block. This has little to do with how fast this player will run flat-footed, with other people on the field, while he is trying to recall his assignment, hold a football, dodge a tackle, etc. 
    Posted by zbellino[/QUOTE]

    Also the thing about forty times is that obviously it's tested running in a straight line, how often do nfl players run straight without being touched? The Patriots seem to place an emphasis on the short shuttle and with good reason - a lot of real football plays are condensed to a 5 to 10 yard area - where explosion and quickness rule. 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moskk. Show moskk's posts

    Re: Is there a better recipe for draft success?

    I believe Zbellino has touched on three very relevant indicators.  Football smarts...what are the indicators as evidenced in past performance?

    2.  Leverage...Certainly applies to OL and DL and perhaps RB and by extension others.  Should see repeated evidence in collegiate play.

    3.  Start-up speed coming off blocks ....certainly applies to DL, LB, WR etc.  A closely related  clue might be the number of receptions (WR), TFL, QP...Q sacks etc.  One would also expect level of competition to be important UNLESS there appears to be no drop off in performance when matched against top competition. Consistency is the key.

    BB does attempt to determine football smarts in his interview process.  However, one should also see numerous examples as demonstrated on the playing field where recognition and speed of response are more meaningful. 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Is there a better recipe for draft success?

    right now the pats have practices that i like and there are some that i hate...

    i like...

    1) trading a second or one of two 1sts to perpetually get an extra first in the subsequent year. given how often the pats go to the playoffs, having the extra first would tyically give them an option to pick higher

    2) picking 2 in a position... but would like to see some adjustments to how this is applied. i'd like them to pick the two in the position that has bene established to be the class' strength. that way, you are hedging against the possibility of picking teh wrong kid. imagine what that would have been like if the pats took two of the pass rushers in the 2011 draft.

    i don't like...

    going often against the grain on who gets picked.

    for one, it's like stockpicking. you could take a bet on the diamond on the rough; but normally people do that hoping for a jackpot. bb is not picking the unknown with the hope of scoring a jackpot.

    also, there's actually value in picking the sought after asset. they could be trade baits. even if bb does not believe the guy is valuable, he can turn that around if the rest of the market thinks the player is valuable.
     

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