Re: Lets get ready to rumble Pats vs Jets wk5
posted at 10/8/2011 5:31 PM EDT
My points: 12.3 for New England. Not much of a chance, is it?
Issues not covered by past statistics, especially for this game:
#1, Captain Ahab sacrifices everything for chasing Moby Dick.
Rex Ryan always gets his team sky high for the Patriots. They will have a 7-7 season and still pull half a season’s worth of gimmick plays and strange blitzes out for the Pats. Advantage, New York Jets, at least for one week, but don’t expect a team that otherwise can barely beat themselves to go very far this year.
#2, Revis Island
Revis Island matches up perfectly with fast #1 receivers. He doesn’t match up with Hernandez. I’m sure that 198 pound Revis can stay right on 245 pound Hernandez’s hip, that is, until the hip bump knocks Revis to the ground and then Hernandez starts waving at Mr. Brady like he needs permission to go to the boys room. Neither can Revis jam Hernandez at the line very well – Newtonian mechanics says that the collision just isn’t going to work. Next, Hernandez often goes over the middle, the wrong place for a cornerback to work, and as an H-back he moves around, which is another new problem for Revis. Finally, Hernandez shields passes well with his body and Revis isn’t the guy to get through Hernandez’s body to the ball.
All of these strength and weight issues go double for the 265 pound Gronkowski vs. Revis. Both tight ends have blossomed from their first to their second year.
Wes Welker isn’t fast so much as he is quick, and he’s fully healed this year. Revis is fast but he can’t cover quickness on Welker’s inside-outside route.
So there you have it. Revis can successfully cover true wideouts Deion Branch, Ochocinco or Taylor Price all day and hold one of them to zero catches. However, Hernandez, Gronkowski and Welker are getting all of the passes. Revis will be forced to do what he’s not so good at, play zone. Suddenly the Jets will be a bit short on defensive players.
#3. Ridley’s emergence.
Last year a Jets castoff, Woodhead, ran wild against the Jets. Ridley’s only a third rounder, but he had run-at-will numbers against the Raiders, just as the Raiders had run-at-will numbers against the Jets. Nate Solder is also emerging, getting better by the week. Rookie stats lag behind the learning curve, and so they don’t carefully reflect how rookies grow into their roles.
#4. The Jets’ offensive line.
Sports pundits are horrified at how inept the once-proud Jets’ O-line has become so quickly since 2010. Starters are missing this year. Mangold will be a bit rusty this week if he plays, and the backups have proven to be pretty lousy. This means that no team including the Patriots fears Shonn Green or anyone else running the ball.
When the Patriots get Albert Haynesworth back on board, which apparently is the case this week, their D-line will again cut through average offensive lines like butter, just as they did in preseason against Tampa Bay, and not as they did in previous regular season games. Expect a less-than-robust running game from the Jets.
#5. Mike Wright’s return.
The Jets’ running game succeeds by wearing down the opponent’s defensive line. Adding one more quality wide body to the D-Line frustrates this goal.
If the Jets can’t run worth a lick, that leaves…
#6. Mark Sanchez.
Lately, the Sanchize is the NFL’s worst quarterback when pressured. He completed zero passes last week when pressured. He also threw one pick-six and fumbled three times, losing two fumbles for immediate Baltimore touchdowns. If the Sanchize can’t get time to think on third down, he can’t throw at all. With odds like that, why in this universe won’t the Patriots bring the house every single time? We may be looking at a truly awful offensive performance by the Jets this Sunday.