Myths and Misrepresentations
posted at 12/23/2013 4:50 PM EST
While basking in the afterglow of a wonderful team win over the Ravens I've been reading some of the threads that have analyzed and reviewed the game.
There's some good stuff, some bad, and as usual, some nonsense.
In the spirit of the Christmas season I am not going to directly single out any thread or post for debunking.
But I'll leave you with this: Other than the final score itself, the best predictor of whether the Pats will win each postseason game is whether they can force a turnover by the other team.
In the Belichick Era the Pats are 16-4 (.800) when they force a turnover. They are 1-3 (.250) when they don't. The lone win without forcing a turnover was the 2001 team which was ranked #6 in team defense. The 3 losses were 2010, 2011, and 2012. See a trend?
This defense/ST must create turnovers for the Pats to win in the postseason. If you think it's been too long since the last SB win, it has been even longer since they won without causing a turnover.
They win at a higher pct. in the postseason when forcing a turnover than their winning pct. in the Belichick Era overall (.725).
The sample size is large and the numbers don't lie.