Re: is Brady`s heart into football anymore
posted at 9/22/2010 11:38 AM EDT
Lots of emotion here and for good cause. We all love our team and want them to succeed.
boiling it down and I have absolutely no stats to support this, but.....
Can anyone argue that for some time now, perhaps going back to the beginning of last year and primarily on the road, our offense has been a completely different team from the 1st half to the 2nd half of games?
I'm not calling out Brady, BB, O'Brien or anyone else individually..lets just say collectively, we have seen 2 different offenses in terms of strategy and execution from the 1st half to the 2nd half of games....?
If you agree with this, the question is, "Why?"
If we were to focus primarily on Brady for a minute, the season stats would not support the drop off. TB has enjoyed his best years statistically in terms of completion percentage, TD to interception ratio, passer rating, etc. over the last 3 years, even after his injury...looking at it over the course of a season...
But, When looking at it on a situational basis for 2009...
1st half of games compared to 2nd half of games, Brady's QB rating drops by 8 points in the 2nd half of games, TD's drop and but so do interceptions. His total pass yards from 1st half to 2nd half declines by roughly 23%, favoring the 1st half. He has more fumbles in 2nd halves, and plays much better in terms of QB rating when he is playing ahead in games (104 rating) vs. trying to come from behind (87 rating).
Also, when comparing home vs. away, Brady's QB rating goes from 109 at home to 81 on the road. He is 10% better at home than away in terms of completion percentage. He threw 7 more interception last year on the road vs. at home.
Some may say that this was his first year back from injury...but, why the difference in 2nd vs 1st halves, and why the difference between home and road games?
What I can't find is our rushing vs passing statistics from 2009 in 1st and 2nd halves of games. This would be an interesting one to look at.
when you look back at 2009, because i used 2009 stats above, you have to scratch your head when comparing the Pats stats to our opponents. We basically out did our opponents in every category...time of possession, rushing, passing, 1st downs, 3rd down conversion, Sacks, touchdowns, fieldgoals, etc., etc.....there is only 1 stat from 2009 in which opponents bested us....Turnover ratio. Opponents were +6 on us.
Perhaps I am rambling, but I'm trying to get to the heart of the matter, and why we see the drop off. Lots of us point to Brady's carelessness with the ball, others say O'Brien's play calling strategy, others say our defense. What I can't see is our defensive stats from the 1st half to the 2nd half of games. if anyone has this or knows where to find it, I would be interested.
Any conclusions so far that can be drawn from this?
1. Brady has not been (2009) as productive in the 2nd half vs 1st half (stats support it)
2. Brady has proven much more productive at home vs. away (stats support it)
3. Brady plays better when ahead than when coming from behind (stats support it)