NFL Power Rankings

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    NFL Power Rankings

    Here are the NFL Power Rankings. Saints at number 1, Pats at 5 going into this week.


    http://www.easternmainesportsblog.com/2009/11/nfl-power-rankingsafter-week-11.html
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    Here are my week 11 rankings:

    1     ne     14.9     (last wk. 1)

    2     ind     12.1     (last wk. 2)

    3     mia     12.0     (last wk. 5)

    4     min     11.9     (last wk. 7)

    5     no     11.7     (last wk. 8)

    6     az     11.2     (last wk. 4)

    7     sd     10.8     (last wk. 15)

    8     cin     10.8     (last wk. 3)

    9     pit     10.4     (last wk. 6)

    10     gb     10.1     (last wk. 12)

    11     nyj     9.9     (last wk. 13)

    12     atl     9.8     (last wk. 10)

    13     bal     9.4     (last wk. 14)

    14     dal     9.0     (last wk. 9)

    15     nyg     8.9     (last wk. 19)

    16     phi     8.9     (last wk. 16)

    17     hou     8.9     (last wk. 11)

    18     car     8.0     (last wk. 17)

    19     buf     7.5     (last wk. 20)

    20     den     7.2     (last wk. 18)

    21     sf     6.2     (last wk. 21)

    22     was     5.8     (last wk. 25)

    23     jac     5.7     (last wk. 23)

    24     chi     5.5     (last wk. 24)

    25     ten     5.1     (last wk. 26)

    26     sea     5.0     (last wk. 22)

    27     kc     4.0     (last wk. 30)

    28     stl     3.7     (last wk. 27)

    29     det     3.6     (last wk. 28)

    30     tb     3.1     (last wk. 29)

    31     cle     2.9     (last wk. 31)

    32     oak     2.1     (last wk. 32)

    Frequent readers know that New England has moved up from the middle of the pack and is now pre-eminent in the NFL with nobody else close.  In all this time I have done nothing to influence my particular power ranking formula one way or another since the formula was codified into a spreadsheet.  That's simply the way the stats came out. 

    Here are the weekly power ratings (out of 16 victories) so far this season, for comparison:

    team     wk 4     wk 5     wk 6     wk 7     wk 8     wk 9     wk 10     wk 11

    buf     6.8     6.2     8.0     8.0     8.3     8.6     7.2     7.5

    mia     10.9     10.9     11.3     12.7     13.2     13.2     11.2     12.0

    ne     9.8     10.8     14.5     14.5     15.2     15.4     14.8     14.9

    nyj     10.8     11.0     10.5     12.1     12.2     12.4     9.5     9.9

    cin     6.0     7.6     6.8     9.8     9.8     10.6     11.5     10.8

    pit     11.2     12.1     10.9     11.0     10.8     11.1     11.1     10.4

    bal     8.4     8.1     8.8     9.3     9.9     8.5     9.2     9.4

    cle     4.2     5.0     5.9     5.2     3.9     3.3     2.7     2.9

    ind     14.1     13.8     13.1     13.7     11.6     11.7     12.4     12.1

    jac     9.6     5.6     3.8     4.0     1.6     3.2     5.8     5.7

    hou     7.9     5.9     7.3     8.9     8.9     10.0     10.0     8.9

    ten     7.5     5.7     2.0     2.1     2.1     3.7     4.3     5.1

    den     7.7     7.8     8.8     9.5     9.2     8.7     8.4     7.2

    kc     4.1     4.6     4.5     2.9     3.4     2.3     2.8     4.0

    oak     2.6     1.1     2.7     1.6     2.2     2.0     1.1     2.1

    sd     6.1     5.8     6.2     7.9     7.4     7.8     9.0     10.8

    dal     8.8     8.4     8.1     9.2     11.1     10.9     10.6     9.0

    nyg     10.0     11.4     10.1     9.2     8.8     8.1     7.8     8.9

    phi     10.6     10.8     8.5     8.7     10.5     10.6     9.0     8.9

    was     5.1     6.3     4.6     3.3     4.0     4.5     4.8     5.8

    chi     8.6     9.5     9.7     6.0     6.6     4.8     5.4     5.4

    det     6.9     7.0     4.9     4.1     2.7     2.4     4.0     3.6

    gb     5.4     5.9     8.5     10.1     9.6     9.0     9.8     10.1

    min     9.8     10.2     11.3     11.5     11.7     11.3     10.9     11.9

    atl     9.9     13.4     13.7     11.4     12.5     11.5     10.4     9.8

    car     5.6     5.1     4.5     4.2     7.0     8.7     8.6     8.0

    no     12.1     12.3     13.8     13.2     13.8     12.4     10.8     11.7

    tb     3.8     4.2     2.4     2.3     3.2     3.6     4.0     3.1

    az     11.1     9.2     11.7     12.6     9.8     11.9     11.4     11.2

    stl     2.8     2.4     3.0     2.7     2.5     2.3     4.0     3.7

    sf     10.2     8.2     8.6     7.2     8.0     7.0     6.9     6.2

    sea     7.7     9.7     7.6     7.0     4.7     4.6     6.5     5.1

    I’m encouraged that usually a team’s strength doesn’t change much from week to week. 

    Because the numbers are so steady, when they do change, usually something has happened (good or bad) to the team.  For example, in week 5, Brady was getting his sea legs and the rest of the players (all sorts of talented rookies and free agents) were all getting on the same page.  Denver currently looks like its quarterback recently got injured.  The Jets look kind of injured as of week 10.  Miami took a smaller dip in week 10.  Tennessee looks like its entire defensive backfield got injured for a few weeks but the defense is better now.  San Diego has caught fire lately, going from a 6-10 power ranking to an 11-5 power ranking.  Maybe LT is back on his feet again. 

     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]Here are my week 11 rankings: 1      ne      14.9...       
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    You know you lose all credibility by ranking a 7-3 team ahead of two 10-0 teams, including one that beat the 7-3 team, right? 

    "You are what your record says you are."
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    I stand by the idea that the first three quarters of play indicates which team is stronger, and the fourth quarter often indicates which teams have a lucky horseshoe up their butts.  "Lucky" might be replicable for a few psychics but demonstrated skill and talent (from the first three quarters of play) is my preferred indicator of future success.

     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]Here are my week 11 rankings: 1      ne      14.9      (last wk. 1) 2      ind      12.1      (last wk. 2) 3      mia      12.0      (last wk. 5) 4      min      11.9      (last wk. 7) 5      no      11.7      (last wk. 8) 6      az      11.2      (last wk. 4) 7      sd      10.8      (last wk. 15) 8      cin      10.8      (last wk. 3) 9      pit      10.4      (last wk. 6) 10      gb      10.1      (last wk. 12) 11      nyj      9.9      (last wk. 13) 12      atl      9.8      (last wk. 10) 13      bal      9.4      (last wk. 14) 14      dal      9.0      (last wk. 9) 15      nyg      8.9      (last wk. 19) 16      phi      8.9      (last wk. 16) 17      hou      8.9      (last wk. 11) 18      car      8.0      (last wk. 17) 19      buf      7.5      (last wk. 20) 20      den      7.2      (last wk. 18) 21      sf      6.2      (last wk. 21) 22      was      5.8      (last wk. 25) 23      jac      5.7      (last wk. 23) 24      chi      5.5      (last wk. 24) 25      ten      5.1      (last wk. 26) 26      sea      5.0      (last wk. 22) 27      kc      4.0      (last wk. 30) 28      stl      3.7      (last wk. 27) 29      det      3.6      (last wk. 28) 30      tb      3.1      (last wk. 29) 31      cle      2.9      (last wk. 31) 32      oak      2.1      (last wk. 32) Frequent readers know that New England has moved up from the middle of the pack and is now pre-eminent in the NFL with nobody else close.  In all this time I have done nothing to influence my particular power ranking formula one way or another since the formula was codified into a spreadsheet.  That's simply the way the stats came out.  Here are the weekly power ratings (out of 16 victories) so far this season, for comparison: team      wk 4      wk 5      wk 6      wk 7      wk 8      wk 9      wk 10      wk 11 buf      6.8      6.2      8.0      8.0      8.3      8.6      7.2      7.5 mia      10.9      10.9      11.3      12.7      13.2      13.2      11.2      12.0 ne      9.8      10.8      14.5      14.5      15.2      15.4      14.8      14.9 nyj      10.8      11.0      10.5      12.1      12.2      12.4      9.5      9.9 cin      6.0      7.6      6.8      9.8      9.8      10.6      11.5      10.8 pit      11.2      12.1      10.9      11.0      10.8      11.1      11.1      10.4 bal      8.4      8.1      8.8      9.3      9.9      8.5      9.2      9.4 cle      4.2      5.0      5.9      5.2      3.9      3.3      2.7      2.9 ind      14.1      13.8      13.1      13.7      11.6      11.7      12.4       12.1 jac      9.6      5.6      3.8      4.0      1.6      3.2      5.8      5.7 hou      7.9      5.9      7.3      8.9      8.9      10.0      10.0      8.9 ten      7.5      5.7      2.0      2.1      2.1      3.7      4.3      5.1 den      7.7      7.8      8.8      9.5      9.2      8.7      8.4      7.2 kc      4.1      4.6      4.5      2.9      3.4      2.3      2.8      4.0 oak      2.6      1.1      2.7      1.6      2.2      2.0      1.1      2.1 sd      6.1      5.8      6.2      7.9      7.4      7.8      9.0      10.8 dal      8.8      8.4      8.1       9.2      11.1      10.9      10.6      9.0 nyg      10.0      11.4      10.1      9.2      8.8      8.1      7.8      8.9 phi      10.6      10.8      8.5      8.7      10.5      10.6      9.0      8.9 was      5.1      6.3      4.6      3.3      4.0      4.5      4.8      5.8 chi      8.6      9.5      9.7      6.0      6.6      4.8      5.4      5.4 det      6.9      7.0      4.9      4.1      2.7      2.4      4.0      3.6 gb      5.4      5.9      8.5      10.1      9.6      9.0      9.8      10.1 min      9.8      10.2      11.3      11.5      11.7      11.3      10.9      11.9 atl      9.9      13.4      13.7      11.4      12.5      11.5      10.4      9.8 car      5.6      5.1      4.5      4.2      7.0      8.7      8.6      8.0 no      12.1      12.3      13.8      13.2      13.8      12.4      10.8      11.7 tb      3.8      4.2      2.4      2.3      3.2      3.6      4.0      3.1 az      11.1      9.2      11.7      12.6      9.8      11.9      11.4      11.2 stl      2.8      2.4      3.0      2.7      2.5      2.3      4.0      3.7 sf      10.2      8.2      8.6      7.2      8.0      7.0      6.9      6.2 sea      7.7      9.7      7.6      7.0      4.7      4.6      6.5      5.1 I’m encouraged that usually a team’s strength doesn’t change much from week to week.   Because the numbers are so steady, when they do change, usually something has happened (good or bad) to the team.   For example, in week 5, Brady was getting his sea legs and the rest of the players (all sorts of talented rookies and free agents) were all getting on the same page.   Denver currently looks like its quarterback recently got injured.   The Jets look kind of injured as of week 10.   Miami took a smaller dip in week 10.   Tennessee looks like its entire defensive backfield got injured for a few weeks but the defense is better now.   San Diego has caught fire lately, going from a 6-10 power ranking to an 11-5 power ranking.   Maybe LT is back on his feet again.  
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]Bengals at Eight, they need to be higher. Jets at 11 they need to be way lower. The Pats are 4 like it or not. Saint , Indy , Minn then Patriots.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings : Bengals at Eight, they need to be higher. Jets at 11 they need to be way lower. The Pats are 4 like it or not. Saint , Indy , Minn then Patriots.
    Posted by patriots44[/QUOTE]

    I have limited respect for the Bengals.  Any team that can't pull safely away from the horrid Oakland Raiders deserves an occasional last-minute disaster.  Otherwise, the Bengals won quite a few three point games where their luck held.

    The Jets, for their part, ran all over the Raiders.  I would love to toss the Jets in the trash can based specifically on their coach's useless hissy-fit timeout with five seconds left in Sunday's game, along with the coach's crying and a few unsmart comments by players in the past week, but my numbers reflect the team's abilities on the field.  The Jets lost a bunch of moderately close ones recently to pretty good teams.  The fact that they went down Sunday to the Pats like a piece of cake isn't a complete discredit to them.  It just means they probably aren't going to the playoffs.

    The whole AFC East division has a habit of mashing the bad teams to pieces and of playing the good teams tough.  This tendency gets factored into my power rankings.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]I stand by the idea that the first three quarters of play indicates which team is stronger, and the fourth quarter often indicates which teams have a lucky horseshoe up their butts.  "Lucky" might be replicable for a few psychics but demonstrated skill and talent (from the first three quarters of play) is my preferred indicator of future success.
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    Or the fourth quarter indicates which team has the ability to wear down their opponents.  The Saints have outscored their opponents by 81 points in the fourth quarterallowing only 24 points in 10 games while scoring 105.  That does not have the look of a butt secured horseshoe to me.  It has the look of a superior offense and a lockdown defense.  I am sorry, but any "formula" discounting the fourth quarter is statistically invalid.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]I stand by the idea that the first three quarters of play indicates which team is stronger, and the fourth quarter often indicates which teams have a lucky horseshoe up their butts.  "Lucky" might be replicable for a few psychics but demonstrated skill and talent (from the first three quarters of play) is my preferred indicator of future success.
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    Are you kidding?  The fourth quarter is the only one that matters.  Who cares how well a team does in the first three quarters if they blow it in the fourth?  Unless your three quarter 2009 Pats team is getting out to 100 point leads, I'll take the clutch 4th quarter Pats teams of yore any day.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    These rankings are ridiculous bro!  Miami over NO and Minn??  Sorry to say the Pats are not #1

    Indy
    Saints
    Minn
    Pats

    Until a team loses they are the #1 ranked team IMO. 
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    I'm really glad Pats fans aren't dellusional like Mr. Paul K over here who apparently believes you only need to play three quarters of football.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    This is a joke, right?

    Paul?

    You're having a little fun with us with this "three quarters" thing?

    Right?
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]This is a joke, right? Paul? You're having a little fun with us with this "three quarters" thing? Right?
    Posted by prairiemike[/QUOTE]
    One useful surrogate for wearing down the other team, a legitimate strategy, is time of possession.  I add one point for every 2.5 minutes (rather arbitrary but somewhat reasonable) over 30 minutes of total game possession time.  There's a known correlation between dominating possession time in the first half and winning the game.  I consider time of possession to be a somewhat reasonable correlate to the fourth quarter effect, where one team has worn the other team's defense down. 

    My system's not perfect, but it gives a great signal that doesn't change much from week to week, and when my rating does change there's often a good injury or other excuse for a team's power rating change.  That's one sign of a great power rating.  It's dead-on enough that you would completely ignore my new system at your peril. 

    I freely admit the system's weakness.  The numbers don't read the news.  Statistics are blind to recent injuries.

    If I had my own staff of 10 bean counters I might quibble with counting possession time over the first three quarters instead of the whole game, or add finer gradations by counting every play in the first half of the fourth quarter, but I'm using a KISS system.

    Let me add that unlike Boston Globe reporter Albert Breer's system, my system is somewhat weighted toward recent games.  The Patriots' romp over Tennessee has now faded to 59% strength and the first game's weighting is now down to a 32% weighting.  Teams change.  I want to know what a team is going to do next week, and that makes last week's statistics a bit more relevant than statistics from the season's first game.

    No, I don't give rankings based on win-loss standings.  Denver was a bit of a fake and my stats called them out when they were undefeated.  Now maybe with Orton back they're bouncing back up again toward their old level, which was never 16-0 but more like 9-7 or 10-6 at its maximum.  Good luck to them toughing out a division title on sheer grit, because actual talent isn't going to carry them to the playoffs.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Thursday news, AFC Denver cruised over the NFC Giants.  All the NFL games everywhere are integrally connected in my system, so this little additional show of NFC weakness (and the other two games weren't way out of line with their predictions) pulls undefeated New Orleans down an additional half point to a 2.2 point underdog in their own stadium Monday night.  If I were using fourth quarter scores then the AFC would have bumped ahead even farther, but I don't use fourth quarter scores. 
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    I think the Colts have proven time and time again that time of possession is meaningless.  IMHO, the most important stat is yards per play (YPP).  Order the differential between offensive YPP and defensive YPP allowed, and you'll have a pretty good power poll...
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]I think the Colts have proven time and time again that time of possession is meaningless.  IMHO, the most important stat is yards per play (YPP).  Order the differential between offensive YPP and defensive YPP allowed, and you'll have a pretty good power poll...
    Posted by JulesWinfield[/QUOTE]

    Yes, the Colts counter any time of possession issues with the YPR stat.

    Yards Per Ref

     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    Paul K...

    As much as your enthusiam for the Pats is great.... you do not do the rest of Pats fans much good by having your ranking as they are. 

    How can anyone accept your ranking Miami #3, let alone the Pats at #1, when they have yet to prove they can beat a meaningful foe on the road?  You can say all you want about the importance of the 4th quarter, but, that is where many victories are won against good teams.  The Colts proved that.  In all three losses, the Pats failed to execute when given the chance to win, either scoring with their last possesion or stopping the other team's last possession.  The other teams were not "awarded" a win.  There are a lot of folks out there who do view the Pats as, possibly, the strongest team out there, but, they hold back due to that road record.  Being world beaters for 45 - 50 minutes does not work right now.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    Am I reading this right? The Fish at 3? 
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    And I thought I was a homer.....

    There's no effing way in my right mind that I could rank the Patriots ahead of a team to whom they've lost.  There's also no way in my right mind that I could rank a 7-3 team behind two 10-0 teams, let alone a 9-1 team.  They're TWO TO THREE GAMES BEHIND THE BEST THREE TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE.

    I honestly shouldn't care too much about "power rankings."  The playoffs are the games that decide a team's true place in the league and it's not like the Super Bowl is decided by something retarded like the BCS, but if you're going to rank teams then I'd expect that you'd do so a little more objectively and reasonably.

    Your number system might meet expectations of "objectivity," but it definitely doesn't meet any standard of REASON.

    Any system that ranks the Patriots ahead of two 10-0 teams (the Saints and the Colts who destroyed the Patriots in the 4th quarter when it counted MOST) and one 9-1 team (Vikings) that also ranks a 6-5 team (the Dolphins?!?!) ahead of a 10-0 team (the Saints who beat the Dolphins) and a 9-1 team (the Vikings) really ought to be reconsidered.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    My goodness. It is good to be homers and all but why bother and take the time to do power rankings if you are just going to put your team at first even though they shouldnt be?
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings : Yes, the Colts counter any time of possession issues with the YPR stat. Yards Per Ref
    Posted by EnochRoot[/QUOTE]

    Good one!  And the Pat fans lead the league in YPW - Yards Per Whine. 
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]And I thought I was a homer..... There's no effing way in my right mind that I could rank the Patriots ahead of a team to whom they've lost.   Any system that ranks the Patriots ahead of two 10-0 teams (the Saints and the Colts who destroyed the Patriots in the 4th quarter when it counted MOST) and one 9-1 team (Vikings) that also ranks a 6-5 team (the Dolphins?!?!) ahead of a 10-0 team (the Saints who beat the Dolphins) and a 9-1 team (the Vikings) really ought to be reconsidered.
    Posted by NickC1188[/QUOTE]

    That's funny. 

    Even on a Pats' blog, I burst out laughing seeing a "Power Ranking" list that has the 7-3 Pats #1. 

    If this guy was a Browns fan, I have a feeling he'd have some objective system whereby the Browns would really be the top team in the NFL.


     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    In Response to Re: NFL Power Rankings:
    [QUOTE]Am I reading this right? The Fish at 3? 
    Posted by thetrinity12[/QUOTE]

    I don't like the Fins either, but I can't do anything about Miami being at number 3, in a close bunch with #2 through #5.  I simply don't mess with the numbers.  Too many close ones with the good teams, too many blowouts against the bad ones.  Plus they usually dominate time of possession so they should have worn down their opponents in the fourth quarter.  However, for some reason they are the ultimate fourth quarter sudden death team.

    Finally, my stats are about the team now, not weighted toward the beginning of the season.  The Fins started out with three losses and are currently on a roll.

    I see a little dropoff with QB Pennington injured, but not too much.  RB Ronnie Brown may be injured, but Ricky Williams took up the slack last week.

    P.S.  Globe reporter Breer can't do anything about the Patriots challenging the Saints for his #1 power ranking.  It's not homerism.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    If the Patriots, Steelers, or possibley even the Chargers had all played the Vikings schedule all three of them would probably have only 1 loss also.
     
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    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    Fuzzy math doesn't do it for me it's to...fuzzy. I like straight forward simple answers, simple arithmetic.

    like this...


     
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from macdaddyx4. Show macdaddyx4's posts

    Re: NFL Power Rankings

    I'm inspired to create my own rankings system. Browns at number one, anybody?
     

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