Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

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    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to BannedOnTheRun--1918's comment:

    Hardly, those teams are traditionally tougher than your AFC Least opponents. Would you rather face the redskins or the fish? cowgirls or the bills? I may give you jests over eagles.


    The NFC East had a nice run in the 80s and 90s. Since then, not so much.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

      It was widely reported that the Patriots would play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012.  This of course was based on the scheduled opponents records during the 2011 season.  These opponents had a 116- 140 record, .453 win pct., record  in 2011.

     

      Now that every team has played 13 games, we have enough data to ask this question- Did the Patriots really play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012?

     

      The records of the Patriots opponents in 2011 have no relevance  when measured against our opponents records in 2012.

      The NFL Standings on ESPN list the Strength of Schedule for each team.  This number is based on the overall record of each opponent played in 2012.

     

      By this measure the Patriots are 5th in the AFC and 11th overall.

               AFC                                          NFC

     Jacksonville    .553                   Arizona            .562

     Tennessee     .550                   Detroit             .553

     NY Jets           .544                   Carolina .         .547

     Miami             .529                   Washington     .529

     New England .524                   St. Louis           .527

                                                     New Orleans    .526       

     

      Strength of Schedule is used by the NFL as a tiebreaker.  In that scenario, two teams with equal records are being compared.  When comparing teams with different records Strength of Schedule is skewed.  Teams with losing records make their strength of schedule greater and conversely teams with winning records decrease their strength of schedule. *(NY Jets being the odd exception-opponents record vs Jets 7-6, Opponents record otherwise slightly better than .538)

     

    The records of the Jaguars opponents,, for example, are somewhat elevated by having the benefit of playing 13 games vs them(11-2) .  The records  of the Patriots opponents, are somewhat depressed by having played 13 games vs them(3-10).

     

      If we eliminate the from the record of the Patriots opponents in 2012 the games actually played againgst NE we will have their record vs the rest of the NFL.  This removes New England skewing of the stats.  If we do the same for the rest of the AFC we come up with a different and more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule.

     

     New England   .548

     NY Jets            .545

     Tennessee      .538

     Jacksonville     .529

     Miami              .522  

     

      By this more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule, the Patriots have played the toughest schedule in the AFC. Only Houston has depressed their Strength of Schedule more than the Patriots.  Their SOS of .462, compared to Pats .524, is not nearly offset by the extra win. 

      If we go beyond the AFC with this more accurate measure, only one team has played a tougher schedule than NE.  That team is the Arizona Cardinals with an opponents win pct. of .551 when not playing them as compared to the Patriots mark of .548.  The Patriots play the 9-3-1 49ers this weekend and the Cardinals play the 4-9 Lions. 

      After 13 games, New England has played the second toughest schedule in the NFL.  2011 is completely irrelevant.  After 14 games NE appears poised to have played the toughest schedule in the league.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Having a hard time following the logic of your tweaking " strength of schedule" numbers. 

    What skews these averages is having a couple putrid teams (1-2 wins) or a couple  good teams (1-2 losses).   these opponents drag the average one way or another.

    Another measuring stick is quality win ranking.  Teams records against plus .500 teams.  Pats are 3-2 right now.

    Through Week 14 of the 2012 Regular Season

    About our Quality Standings. These are complete NFL standings based solely upon each team's performance against what we call "Quality Opponents" – that is, against teams with winning records. Strip away the dead-weight detritus of games played against poor and mediocre opponents, and you get a much clearer picture of the true nature of a team. Our Quality Standings tell you which teams battle the iron of the league and which teams pad their records by beating up weak opponents.

     

    RankTeamWLPFPAQS 1 ∼ Atlanta 3 0 23.33 17.00 100% 2 ↑ 2 Seattle 5 1 20.67 15.33 83% 3 ↑ 3 Pittsburgh 4 2 21.17 18.83 67% 4 ↑ 3 New England 3 2 37.00 22.80 60% 5 ↓ 2 San Francisco 3 2 18.20 17.00 60% 6 ↓ 4 Houston 3 2 25.00 25.60 60% 7 ↓ 2 Baltimore 4 3 25.71 25.57 57% 8 ∼ N.Y. Giants 4 4 23.25 19.50 50% 9 ↑ 11 Washington 4 4 25.88 27.12 50% 10 ↑ 5 Indianapolis 2 2 24.50 36.75 50% 11 ↑ 2 Green Bay 3 4 22.71 22.86 43% 12 ↑ 2 St. Louis 3 3 17.57 25.14 43% 13 ↓ 3 Denver 2 3 25.80 26.20 40% 14 ↑ 5 Chicago 3 5 19.62 20.12 38% 15 ↑ 2 Cincinnati 2 4 23.50 27.17 33% 16 ↓ 5 Miami 2 4 16.67 22.83 33% 17 ↑ 1 Minnesota 2 5 19.29 24.14 29% 18 ↓ 9 Philadelphia 2 5 19.43 27.57 29% 19 ↓ 7 Arizona 2 5 13.29 27.29 29% 20 ↓ 4 Cleveland 2 6 21.50 25.12 25% 21 ↑ 10 Carolina 2 6 18.50 24.12 25% 22 ↑ 2 Dallas 2 6 20.75 26.75 25% 23 ↑ 5 Tampa Bay 1 5 24.67 25.50 17% 24 ↑ 6 San Diego 1 5 18.33 25.33 17% 25 ↓ 3 Oakland 1 5 17.17 34.33 17% 26 ↓ 5 New Orleans 1 6 23.57 33.57 14% 27 ↓ 1 N.Y. Jets 1 6 16.29 28.43 14% 28 ↓ 1 Jacksonville 1 7 15.88 29.00 12% 29 ↓ 4 Tennessee 1 7 15.75 30.75 12% 30 ↓ 7 Detroit 1 8 21.67 26.44 11% 31 ↓ 2 Kansas City 0 5 11.60 22.00 0% 32 ∼ Buffalo0 5 16.80 35.00 0% Quality Stats

    Premium Articles

     

    coldhardfootballfacts, baby. 

    nobody crunches numbers better than these guys...  But they can be wrong too., sometimes.

    Apparently posting the chart here messed up the format.  oops... Click on site to get neater view...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

      It was widely reported that the Patriots would play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012.  This of course was based on the scheduled opponents records during the 2011 season.  These opponents had a 116- 140 record, .453 win pct., record  in 2011.

     

      Now that every team has played 13 games, we have enough data to ask this question- Did the Patriots really play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012?

     

      The records of the Patriots opponents in 2011 have no relevance  when measured against our opponents records in 2012.

      The NFL Standings on ESPN list the Strength of Schedule for each team.  This number is based on the overall record of each opponent played in 2012.

     

      By this measure the Patriots are 5th in the AFC and 11th overall.

               AFC                                          NFC

     Jacksonville    .553                   Arizona            .562

     Tennessee     .550                   Detroit             .553

     NY Jets           .544                   Carolina .         .547

     Miami             .529                   Washington     .529

     New England .524                   St. Louis           .527

                                                     New Orleans    .526       

     

      Strength of Schedule is used by the NFL as a tiebreaker.  In that scenario, two teams with equal records are being compared.  When comparing teams with different records Strength of Schedule is skewed.  Teams with losing records make their strength of schedule greater and conversely teams with winning records decrease their strength of schedule. *(NY Jets being the odd exception-opponents record vs Jets 7-6, Opponents record otherwise slightly better than .538)

     

    The records of the Jaguars opponents,, for example, are somewhat elevated by having the benefit of playing 13 games vs them(11-2) .  The records  of the Patriots opponents, are somewhat depressed by having played 13 games vs them(3-10).

     

      If we eliminate the from the record of the Patriots opponents in 2012 the games actually played againgst NE we will have their record vs the rest of the NFL.  This removes New England skewing of the stats.  If we do the same for the rest of the AFC we come up with a different and more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule.

     

     New England   .548

     NY Jets            .545

     Tennessee      .538

     Jacksonville     .529

     Miami              .522  

     

      By this more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule, the Patriots have played the toughest schedule in the AFC. Only Houston has depressed their Strength of Schedule more than the Patriots.  Their SOS of .462, compared to Pats .524, is not nearly offset by the extra win. 

      If we go beyond the AFC with this more accurate measure, only one team has played a tougher schedule than NE.  That team is the Arizona Cardinals with an opponents win pct. of .551 when not playing them as compared to the Patriots mark of .548.  The Patriots play the 9-3-1 49ers this weekend and the Cardinals play the 4-9 Lions. 

      After 13 games, New England has played the second toughest schedule in the NFL.  2011 is completely irrelevant.  After 14 games NE appears poised to have played the toughest schedule in the league.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Having a hard time following the logic of your tweaking " strength of schedule" numbers. 

    What skews these averages is having a couple putrid teams (1-2 wins) or a couple  good teams (1-2 losses).   these opponents drag the average one way or another.

    Another measuring stick is quality win ranking.  Teams records against plus .500 teams.  Pats are 3-2 right now.

    Through Week 14 of the 2012 Regular Season

    About our Quality Standings. These are complete NFL standings based solely upon each team's performance against what we call "Quality Opponents" – that is, against teams with winning records. Strip away the dead-weight detritus of games played against poor and mediocre opponents, and you get a much clearer picture of the true nature of a team. Our Quality Standings tell you which teams battle the iron of the league and which teams pad their records by beating up weak opponents.

     

    RankTeamWLPFPAQS 1 ∼ Atlanta 3 0 23.33 17.00 100% 2 ↑ 2 Seattle 5 1 20.67 15.33 83% 3 ↑ 3 Pittsburgh 4 2 21.17 18.83 67% 4 ↑ 3 New England 3 2 37.00 22.80 60% 5 ↓ 2 San Francisco 3 2 18.20 17.00 60% 6 ↓ 4 Houston 3 2 25.00 25.60 60% 7 ↓ 2 Baltimore 4 3 25.71 25.57 57% 8 ∼ N.Y. Giants 4 4 23.25 19.50 50% 9 ↑ 11 Washington 4 4 25.88 27.12 50% 10 ↑ 5 Indianapolis 2 2 24.50 36.75 50% 11 ↑ 2 Green Bay 3 4 22.71 22.86 43% 12 ↑ 2 St. Louis 3 3 17.57 25.14 43% 13 ↓ 3 Denver 2 3 25.80 26.20 40% 14 ↑ 5 Chicago 3 5 19.62 20.12 38% 15 ↑ 2 Cincinnati 2 4 23.50 27.17 33% 16 ↓ 5 Miami 2 4 16.67 22.83 33% 17 ↑ 1 Minnesota 2 5 19.29 24.14 29% 18 ↓ 9 Philadelphia 2 5 19.43 27.57 29% 19 ↓ 7 Arizona 2 5 13.29 27.29 29% 20 ↓ 4 Cleveland 2 6 21.50 25.12 25% 21 ↑ 10 Carolina 2 6 18.50 24.12 25% 22 ↑ 2 Dallas 2 6 20.75 26.75 25% 23 ↑ 5 Tampa Bay 1 5 24.67 25.50 17% 24 ↑ 6 San Diego 1 5 18.33 25.33 17% 25 ↓ 3 Oakland 1 5 17.17 34.33 17% 26 ↓ 5 New Orleans 1 6 23.57 33.57 14% 27 ↓ 1 N.Y. Jets 1 6 16.29 28.43 14% 28 ↓ 1 Jacksonville 1 7 15.88 29.00 12% 29 ↓ 4 Tennessee 1 7 15.75 30.75 12% 30 ↓ 7 Detroit 1 8 21.67 26.44 11% 31 ↓ 2 Kansas City 0 5 11.60 22.00 0% 32 ∼ Buffalo0 5 16.80 35.00 0% Quality Stats

    Premium Articles

     

    coldhardfootballfacts, baby. 

    nobody crunches numbers better than these guys...  But they can be wrong too., sometimes.

    Apparently posting the chart here messed up the format.  oops... Click on site to get neater view...

    [/QUOTE]


      The point of tweaking strength of schedule is to eliminate the Patriots effect on that statistic.  Bad teams boost their strength of schedule by boosting their opponents win pct. and good teams sink theirs.  What I did was consider the Patriots opponents based on what they have done against general competition.  Look at the NFL standings for strength of schedule and you will see a strong tendency for teams with losing records to seemingly have tougher schedules.

      When measuring wins against teams win plus .500 records the Patriots have also polluted that pool.  For example, if it was not for playing the Patriots, the NYJets would be 6-5 and thus a team with a plus .500 record.  The St. Louis Rams would also qualify with a 6-5-1 record.  The Patriots have 6-2 record vs. plus .500 if they are not allowed to skew the statistic.  2 wins vs NYJ and 1 vs. St. Louis.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

      It was widely reported that the Patriots would play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012.  This of course was based on the scheduled opponents records during the 2011 season.  These opponents had a 116- 140 record, .453 win pct., record  in 2011.

     

      Now that every team has played 13 games, we have enough data to ask this question- Did the Patriots really play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012?

     

      The records of the Patriots opponents in 2011 have no relevance  when measured against our opponents records in 2012.

      The NFL Standings on ESPN list the Strength of Schedule for each team.  This number is based on the overall record of each opponent played in 2012.

     

      By this measure the Patriots are 5th in the AFC and 11th overall.

               AFC                                          NFC

     Jacksonville    .553                   Arizona            .562

     Tennessee     .550                   Detroit             .553

     NY Jets           .544                   Carolina .         .547

     Miami             .529                   Washington     .529

     New England .524                   St. Louis           .527

                                                     New Orleans    .526       

     

      Strength of Schedule is used by the NFL as a tiebreaker.  In that scenario, two teams with equal records are being compared.  When comparing teams with different records Strength of Schedule is skewed.  Teams with losing records make their strength of schedule greater and conversely teams with winning records decrease their strength of schedule. *(NY Jets being the odd exception-opponents record vs Jets 7-6, Opponents record otherwise slightly better than .538)

     

    The records of the Jaguars opponents,, for example, are somewhat elevated by having the benefit of playing 13 games vs them(11-2) .  The records  of the Patriots opponents, are somewhat depressed by having played 13 games vs them(3-10).

     

      If we eliminate the from the record of the Patriots opponents in 2012 the games actually played againgst NE we will have their record vs the rest of the NFL.  This removes New England skewing of the stats.  If we do the same for the rest of the AFC we come up with a different and more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule.

     

     New England   .548

     NY Jets            .545

     Tennessee      .538

     Jacksonville     .529

     Miami              .522  

     

      By this more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule, the Patriots have played the toughest schedule in the AFC. Only Houston has depressed their Strength of Schedule more than the Patriots.  Their SOS of .462, compared to Pats .524, is not nearly offset by the extra win. 

      If we go beyond the AFC with this more accurate measure, only one team has played a tougher schedule than NE.  That team is the Arizona Cardinals with an opponents win pct. of .551 when not playing them as compared to the Patriots mark of .548.  The Patriots play the 9-3-1 49ers this weekend and the Cardinals play the 4-9 Lions. 

      After 13 games, New England has played the second toughest schedule in the NFL.  2011 is completely irrelevant.  After 14 games NE appears poised to have played the toughest schedule in the league.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If we split enough hairs we can say the Patriots are better than the every team in the NFL combined.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to vtfanofcs's comment:
    [QUOTE]

      It was widely reported that the Patriots would play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012.  This of course was based on the scheduled opponents records during the 2011 season.  These opponents had a 116- 140 record, .453 win pct., record  in 2011.

     

      Now that every team has played 13 games, we have enough data to ask this question- Did the Patriots really play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012?

     

      The records of the Patriots opponents in 2011 have no relevance  when measured against our opponents records in 2012.

      The NFL Standings on ESPN list the Strength of Schedule for each team.  This number is based on the overall record of each opponent played in 2012.

     

      By this measure the Patriots are 5th in the AFC and 11th overall.

               AFC                                          NFC

     Jacksonville    .553                   Arizona            .562

     Tennessee     .550                   Detroit             .553

     NY Jets           .544                   Carolina .         .547

     Miami             .529                   Washington     .529

     New England .524                   St. Louis           .527

                                                     New Orleans    .526       

     

      Strength of Schedule is used by the NFL as a tiebreaker.  In that scenario, two teams with equal records are being compared.  When comparing teams with different records Strength of Schedule is skewed.  Teams with losing records make their strength of schedule greater and conversely teams with winning records decrease their strength of schedule. *(NY Jets being the odd exception-opponents record vs Jets 7-6, Opponents record otherwise slightly better than .538)

     

    The records of the Jaguars opponents,, for example, are somewhat elevated by having the benefit of playing 13 games vs them(11-2) .  The records  of the Patriots opponents, are somewhat depressed by having played 13 games vs them(3-10).

     

      If we eliminate the from the record of the Patriots opponents in 2012 the games actually played againgst NE we will have their record vs the rest of the NFL.  This removes New England skewing of the stats.  If we do the same for the rest of the AFC we come up with a different and more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule.

     

     New England   .548

     NY Jets            .545

     Tennessee      .538

     Jacksonville     .529

     Miami              .522  

     

      By this more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule, the Patriots have played the toughest schedule in the AFC. Only Houston has depressed their Strength of Schedule more than the Patriots.  Their SOS of .462, compared to Pats .524, is not nearly offset by the extra win. 

      If we go beyond the AFC with this more accurate measure, only one team has played a tougher schedule than NE.  That team is the Arizona Cardinals with an opponents win pct. of .551 when not playing them as compared to the Patriots mark of .548.  The Patriots play the 9-3-1 49ers this weekend and the Cardinals play the 4-9 Lions. 

      After 13 games, New England has played the second toughest schedule in the NFL.  2011 is completely irrelevant.  After 14 games NE appears poised to have played the toughest schedule in the league.

     [/QUOTE]

         Thanks for you great post, my friend. An interesting read.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

      It was widely reported that the Patriots would play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012.  This of course was based on the scheduled opponents records during the 2011 season.  These opponents had a 116- 140 record, .453 win pct., record  in 2011.

     

      Now that every team has played 13 games, we have enough data to ask this question- Did the Patriots really play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012?

     

      The records of the Patriots opponents in 2011 have no relevance  when measured against our opponents records in 2012.

      The NFL Standings on ESPN list the Strength of Schedule for each team.  This number is based on the overall record of each opponent played in 2012.

     

      By this measure the Patriots are 5th in the AFC and 11th overall.

               AFC                                          NFC

     Jacksonville    .553                   Arizona            .562

     Tennessee     .550                   Detroit             .553

     NY Jets           .544                   Carolina .         .547

     Miami             .529                   Washington     .529

     New England .524                   St. Louis           .527

                                                     New Orleans    .526       

     

      Strength of Schedule is used by the NFL as a tiebreaker.  In that scenario, two teams with equal records are being compared.  When comparing teams with different records Strength of Schedule is skewed.  Teams with losing records make their strength of schedule greater and conversely teams with winning records decrease their strength of schedule. *(NY Jets being the odd exception-opponents record vs Jets 7-6, Opponents record otherwise slightly better than .538)

     

    The records of the Jaguars opponents,, for example, are somewhat elevated by having the benefit of playing 13 games vs them(11-2) .  The records  of the Patriots opponents, are somewhat depressed by having played 13 games vs them(3-10).

     

      If we eliminate the from the record of the Patriots opponents in 2012 the games actually played againgst NE we will have their record vs the rest of the NFL.  This removes New England skewing of the stats.  If we do the same for the rest of the AFC we come up with a different and more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule.

     

     New England   .548

     NY Jets            .545

     Tennessee      .538

     Jacksonville     .529

     Miami              .522  

     

      By this more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule, the Patriots have played the toughest schedule in the AFC. Only Houston has depressed their Strength of Schedule more than the Patriots.  Their SOS of .462, compared to Pats .524, is not nearly offset by the extra win. 

      If we go beyond the AFC with this more accurate measure, only one team has played a tougher schedule than NE.  That team is the Arizona Cardinals with an opponents win pct. of .551 when not playing them as compared to the Patriots mark of .548.  The Patriots play the 9-3-1 49ers this weekend and the Cardinals play the 4-9 Lions. 

      After 13 games, New England has played the second toughest schedule in the NFL.  2011 is completely irrelevant.  After 14 games NE appears poised to have played the toughest schedule in the league.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Having a hard time following the logic of your tweaking " strength of schedule" numbers. 

    What skews these averages is having a couple putrid teams (1-2 wins) or a couple  good teams (1-2 losses).   these opponents drag the average one way or another.

    Another measuring stick is quality win ranking.  Teams records against plus .500 teams.  Pats are 3-2 right now.

    Through Week 14 of the 2012 Regular Season

    About our Quality Standings. These are complete NFL standings based solely upon each team's performance against what we call "Quality Opponents" – that is, against teams with winning records. Strip away the dead-weight detritus of games played against poor and mediocre opponents, and you get a much clearer picture of the true nature of a team. Our Quality Standings tell you which teams battle the iron of the league and which teams pad their records by beating up weak opponents.

     

    RankTeamWLPFPAQS 1 ∼ Atlanta 3 0 23.33 17.00 100% 2 ↑ 2 Seattle 5 1 20.67 15.33 83% 3 ↑ 3 Pittsburgh 4 2 21.17 18.83 67% 4 ↑ 3 New England 3 2 37.00 22.80 60% 5 ↓ 2 San Francisco 3 2 18.20 17.00 60% 6 ↓ 4 Houston 3 2 25.00 25.60 60% 7 ↓ 2 Baltimore 4 3 25.71 25.57 57% 8 ∼ N.Y. Giants 4 4 23.25 19.50 50% 9 ↑ 11 Washington 4 4 25.88 27.12 50% 10 ↑ 5 Indianapolis 2 2 24.50 36.75 50% 11 ↑ 2 Green Bay 3 4 22.71 22.86 43% 12 ↑ 2 St. Louis 3 3 17.57 25.14 43% 13 ↓ 3 Denver 2 3 25.80 26.20 40% 14 ↑ 5 Chicago 3 5 19.62 20.12 38% 15 ↑ 2 Cincinnati 2 4 23.50 27.17 33% 16 ↓ 5 Miami 2 4 16.67 22.83 33% 17 ↑ 1 Minnesota 2 5 19.29 24.14 29% 18 ↓ 9 Philadelphia 2 5 19.43 27.57 29% 19 ↓ 7 Arizona 2 5 13.29 27.29 29% 20 ↓ 4 Cleveland 2 6 21.50 25.12 25% 21 ↑ 10 Carolina 2 6 18.50 24.12 25% 22 ↑ 2 Dallas 2 6 20.75 26.75 25% 23 ↑ 5 Tampa Bay 1 5 24.67 25.50 17% 24 ↑ 6 San Diego 1 5 18.33 25.33 17% 25 ↓ 3 Oakland 1 5 17.17 34.33 17% 26 ↓ 5 New Orleans 1 6 23.57 33.57 14% 27 ↓ 1 N.Y. Jets 1 6 16.29 28.43 14% 28 ↓ 1 Jacksonville 1 7 15.88 29.00 12% 29 ↓ 4 Tennessee 1 7 15.75 30.75 12% 30 ↓ 7 Detroit 1 8 21.67 26.44 11% 31 ↓ 2 Kansas City 0 5 11.60 22.00 0% 32 ∼ Buffalo0 5 16.80 35.00 0% Quality Stats

    Premium Articles

     

    coldhardfootballfacts, baby. 

    nobody crunches numbers better than these guys...  But they can be wrong too., sometimes.

    Apparently posting the chart here messed up the format.  oops... Click on site to get neater view...

    [/QUOTE]


      Your point about playing teams with very good or bad records having a great effect on Strength of Schedule is very true.  The Patriots Strength of Schedule will peak this weekend when the play the 49ers.  It will take a large hit the following week when they play the currently 2-11 Jaguars.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to BannedOnTheRun--1918's comment:

    LOL... when has the AFC Least ever had a "nice run"?


    The NFC East isn't as good as you want to believe.

    Take a look at the common opponents this year.

    Records vs common opponents:
    NFC East vs AFC North 6-7   Ave score 22.2-25.7
    AFC East vs AFC North 2-2   Ave score 20.2-21.2

    AFC East vs NFC West 6-8   Ave score 16.9-21.0
    NFC East vs NFC West 1-3   Ave score 16.7-22.0

    C'mon man! Give us a break!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to vtfanofcs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

      It was widely reported that the Patriots would play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012.  This of course was based on the scheduled opponents records during the 2011 season.  These opponents had a 116- 140 record, .453 win pct., record  in 2011.

     

      Now that every team has played 13 games, we have enough data to ask this question- Did the Patriots really play the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012?

     

      The records of the Patriots opponents in 2011 have no relevance  when measured against our opponents records in 2012.

      The NFL Standings on ESPN list the Strength of Schedule for each team.  This number is based on the overall record of each opponent played in 2012.

     

      By this measure the Patriots are 5th in the AFC and 11th overall.

               AFC                                          NFC

     Jacksonville    .553                   Arizona            .562

     Tennessee     .550                   Detroit             .553

     NY Jets           .544                   Carolina .         .547

     Miami             .529                   Washington     .529

     New England .524                   St. Louis           .527

                                                     New Orleans    .526       

     

      Strength of Schedule is used by the NFL as a tiebreaker.  In that scenario, two teams with equal records are being compared.  When comparing teams with different records Strength of Schedule is skewed.  Teams with losing records make their strength of schedule greater and conversely teams with winning records decrease their strength of schedule. *(NY Jets being the odd exception-opponents record vs Jets 7-6, Opponents record otherwise slightly better than .538)

     

    The records of the Jaguars opponents,, for example, are somewhat elevated by having the benefit of playing 13 games vs them(11-2) .  The records  of the Patriots opponents, are somewhat depressed by having played 13 games vs them(3-10).

     

      If we eliminate the from the record of the Patriots opponents in 2012 the games actually played againgst NE we will have their record vs the rest of the NFL.  This removes New England skewing of the stats.  If we do the same for the rest of the AFC we come up with a different and more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule.

     

     New England   .548

     NY Jets            .545

     Tennessee      .538

     Jacksonville     .529

     Miami              .522  

     

      By this more accurate measure of Strength of Schedule, the Patriots have played the toughest schedule in the AFC. Only Houston has depressed their Strength of Schedule more than the Patriots.  Their SOS of .462, compared to Pats .524, is not nearly offset by the extra win. 

      If we go beyond the AFC with this more accurate measure, only one team has played a tougher schedule than NE.  That team is the Arizona Cardinals with an opponents win pct. of .551 when not playing them as compared to the Patriots mark of .548.  The Patriots play the 9-3-1 49ers this weekend and the Cardinals play the 4-9 Lions. 

      After 13 games, New England has played the second toughest schedule in the NFL.  2011 is completely irrelevant.  After 14 games NE appears poised to have played the toughest schedule in the league.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Having a hard time following the logic of your tweaking " strength of schedule" numbers. 

    What skews these averages is having a couple putrid teams (1-2 wins) or a couple  good teams (1-2 losses).   these opponents drag the average one way or another.

    Another measuring stick is quality win ranking.  Teams records against plus .500 teams.  Pats are 3-2 right now.

    Through Week 14 of the 2012 Regular Season

    About our Quality Standings. These are complete NFL standings based solely upon each team's performance against what we call "Quality Opponents" – that is, against teams with winning records. Strip away the dead-weight detritus of games played against poor and mediocre opponents, and you get a much clearer picture of the true nature of a team. Our Quality Standings tell you which teams battle the iron of the league and which teams pad their records by beating up weak opponents.

     

    RankTeamWLPFPAQS 1 ∼ Atlanta 3 0 23.33 17.00 100% 2 ↑ 2 Seattle 5 1 20.67 15.33 83% 3 ↑ 3 Pittsburgh 4 2 21.17 18.83 67% 4 ↑ 3 New England 3 2 37.00 22.80 60% 5 ↓ 2 San Francisco 3 2 18.20 17.00 60% 6 ↓ 4 Houston 3 2 25.00 25.60 60% 7 ↓ 2 Baltimore 4 3 25.71 25.57 57% 8 ∼ N.Y. Giants 4 4 23.25 19.50 50% 9 ↑ 11 Washington 4 4 25.88 27.12 50% 10 ↑ 5 Indianapolis 2 2 24.50 36.75 50% 11 ↑ 2 Green Bay 3 4 22.71 22.86 43% 12 ↑ 2 St. Louis 3 3 17.57 25.14 43% 13 ↓ 3 Denver 2 3 25.80 26.20 40% 14 ↑ 5 Chicago 3 5 19.62 20.12 38% 15 ↑ 2 Cincinnati 2 4 23.50 27.17 33% 16 ↓ 5 Miami 2 4 16.67 22.83 33% 17 ↑ 1 Minnesota 2 5 19.29 24.14 29% 18 ↓ 9 Philadelphia 2 5 19.43 27.57 29% 19 ↓ 7 Arizona 2 5 13.29 27.29 29% 20 ↓ 4 Cleveland 2 6 21.50 25.12 25% 21 ↑ 10 Carolina 2 6 18.50 24.12 25% 22 ↑ 2 Dallas 2 6 20.75 26.75 25% 23 ↑ 5 Tampa Bay 1 5 24.67 25.50 17% 24 ↑ 6 San Diego 1 5 18.33 25.33 17% 25 ↓ 3 Oakland 1 5 17.17 34.33 17% 26 ↓ 5 New Orleans 1 6 23.57 33.57 14% 27 ↓ 1 N.Y. Jets 1 6 16.29 28.43 14% 28 ↓ 1 Jacksonville 1 7 15.88 29.00 12% 29 ↓ 4 Tennessee 1 7 15.75 30.75 12% 30 ↓ 7 Detroit 1 8 21.67 26.44 11% 31 ↓ 2 Kansas City 0 5 11.60 22.00 0% 32 ∼ Buffalo0 5 16.80 35.00 0% Quality Stats

    Premium Articles

     

    coldhardfootballfacts, baby. 

    nobody crunches numbers better than these guys...  But they can be wrong too., sometimes.

    Apparently posting the chart here messed up the format.  oops... Click on site to get neater view...

    [/QUOTE]


      The point of tweaking strength of schedule is to eliminate the Patriots effect on that statistic.  Bad teams boost their strength of schedule by boosting their opponents win pct. and good teams sink theirs.  What I did was consider the Patriots opponents based on what they have done against general competition.  Look at the NFL standings for strength of schedule and you will see a strong tendency for teams with losing records to seemingly have tougher schedules.

      When measuring wins against teams win plus .500 records the Patriots have also polluted that pool.  For example, if it was not for playing the Patriots, the NYJets would be 6-5 and thus a team with a plus .500 record.  The St. Louis Rams would also qualify with a 6-5-1 record.  The Patriots have 6-2 record vs. plus .500 if they are not allowed to skew the statistic.  2 wins vs NYJ and 1 vs. St. Louis.

    [/QUOTE]


    True for sure.  The quality wins thing is quite arbitrary as far as what should be the cutoff .... .500? Or .400, etc.  Then there is the adage that no win is "easy".

    stats are there for football fans to consume and interpret ... ( Carefully).  You're definitely right to take an accepted statement from the media and question the stats behind it , like you did in this thread.  keep up the good work...

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    come on stop with all this fantasy football sabremetrics crap and look with ur eyes and whats going on on the field

    the afc east is bad - not good teams playing bad but bad-

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Really jints?

     

    Let's look at the facts.

     

    The AFCE other 3 teams record is 16-23. The NFCE other 3 teams record is 18-22.

    Subtract the W/L from the AFCE by the Pats and the W/L from the NFCE by the Giants and you have....

    AFCE - 16-18.

    NFCE - 16-19.

    Looks like the division the Pats play is a bit tougher than the one the Giants play.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to Medic87's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     response to vtfanofcs' 

     Stats are mostly a joke!  you can skew them to support just about any argument you want.   Completely irrelevent post that means absolutely nothing.  Who gives a @$#@ Professor?

    [/QUOTE]


    No you can't.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to UD6's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    If we split enough hairs we can say the Patriots are better than the every team in the NFL combined.

    [/QUOTE]


    But we did destroy your little mickey mouse playoff hopeful team, didn't we doggydoo?

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to JintsFan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    come on stop with all this fantasy football sabremetrics crap and look with ur eyes and whats going on on the field

    the afc east is bad - not good teams playing bad but bad-

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Really jints?

     

    Let's look at the facts.

     

    The AFCE other 3 teams record is 16-23. The NFCE other 3 teams record is 18-22.

    Subtract the W/L from the AFCE by the Pats and the W/L from the NFCE by the Giants and you have....

    AFCE - 16-18.

    NFCE - 16-19.

    Looks like the division the Pats play is a bit tougher than the one the Giants play.

    [/QUOTE]


      As a result of todays early action the Giants now have a Strength of Schedule rating higher than the Patriots,  .531-.523.  However, that is only because the Giants have lost more games.  If the Giants were 10-4, for example, their strength of schedule number would be .521.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rodimus77. Show Rodimus77's posts

    Re: Patriots to play easiest schedule in the NFL in 2012-Not even close

    In response to BannedOnTheRun--1918's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    All I can say is I wish my team got to play the fins, bills and jests 6 times a year, year after year.

    That's like 5-6 automatic wins every year.

    [/QUOTE]

    That's pretty funny coming from a Jets fan. Happy 44th

     

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