In response to ATJ's comment:
In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
In response to ATJ's comment:
The more I think about this, the less likely I believe a Mallett trade will happen. Why? What does Mallett have for a resume? Not a lot other than a gun for an arm and that he's stayed out of the deep darks since the Pats drafted him. Is there a team out there willing to dangle a second? Perhaps but I don't really think so. A third? Probably but would the Pats take a 3rd for him? Don't thnk so.
From a Pats perspective, who backs up Brady? Other than a vet FA or a rookie, I don't know.
In terms of signing Mallett, what exactly does he or his agent have for leverage? Seems to me that there's better than a 50/50 chance he stays with the Pats.
What is the resume of Bridgewater, Johnny Football, Bortles and the like? None, all gambles at high costs.
I think many over value draft picks, way too much.
I believe Walter Football . com did a study regarding regarding how draft picks worked out over a 10 year period.
First round picks are worth it, which by the way is why they have such high values on the draft pick scale.
Something like 70% of the 1st rounders taken over 10 years were considered to have been worth the pick.
After that it's nothing more than a crap shoot.
The second round, 10 year value, was around 50%, i, e, nothing more than a coin toss.
The third round fell to 30% were considered worth the value.
By the 4th you are on a free fall, only 22% were considered worth the value.
The 5th rd on was only in the single digits...
"Value" was graded as still on a NFL roster, length of service, Pro Bowl, stats for each respective position. It was well thought out.
So, a third round pick has a ~70% chance of not ending up a value pick. Really poor odds but it is what it is.
And yet, Mallett, who was considered by many, to be the number one QB in the draft and just needed to gain a bit of maturity, is now deemed to be a joke, unworthy of even a 3rd rounder, a 3rd round pick who likely won't make it yet Mallett, at a position that's the hardest to find, is trash who can't even be given away.
I will never, ever, ever...understand the logic in some who degrade Malletts value.
If you are Houston....you had better be sure, really, really sure before you pass on Jadeveon Clowney before you take the midget in Johnny Football, or the uneven and skinny Bridgewater, or the small school Bortles....all huge risks with the number one pick with none of them even close to the value of a Andrew Luck.
How did all those QB's taken last year work out...check the track record.
Houston should take Clowney at 1, a Tackle at 2, and toss the Pats their # 3 for Mallett...yes, that Mallett...for a # 3 pick that has a 70% chance of not being a value pick for us over 10 years for a QB that has a 1000% chance of working out more than any other QB who will be taken in the 3rd round this year.
The odds favor Houston, not NE regarding this deal.
We need need to stop thinking about 3rd rd picks and beyond as having the value of high relief Saint Gaudens gold coins.
They do not.
Interesting perspective, NMPL, and you may very well be right. The percentages on relative pick success is particularly helpful in placing many opinions expressed in this forum in context.
I'm still not convinced about the level of interest that Mallett will draw but time, as they say, will tell.
Yes, but keep in mind what's at play here. Many GMs are in love with possible picks that are behind door number 3. It's human nature. It's why Let's Make A Deal was such a huge TV hit. People pass on a moderate value for the possibility of a huge value behind door # 3....and it sometimes works out but more likely than not they lose everything.
Mallett has not been moved because the Patriots didn't want to move him. However it didn't stop them from asking a low # 1 or high # 2 last April.
Everything I own is for sale....at a high price of course...but if someone wants to over pay for it I'm selling it.
Mallett is more tradable this spring than he was last.
And the Patriots will start high and lets others counter.
But I would encourage Houston to look at QBs that will still be there in the 3rd rd and try to convince themselves those few have a stronger resume and upside that Mallett.
My guess is knowledgeable GMs around the league know the answer to this.
Last April the Pats asked high....while teams offered low.
I'll wager the dance gets more real and more serious this April....