In Response to Re: pats = same old problem - defense
[QUOTE]Well, you can't count the last two drives. That is the entire point of my last post. The Pats got the ball with 3:39 left. I'm sorry, but you aren't running the ball there, no matter who you are. It would have gift-wrapped the game for the Jets. Lets get the numbers right here ... because I don't know where you are getting 23 runs from at all. I am getting 23 runs from 14 woo dhead runs and 9 BJGE runs.(RB rushes) Tate's runs are runs. Brady's runs are runs. They are runs, because you are running the football. When Brady runs on third and short, it is the essence of what power running should be about, and always has been an area where NE beat other teams. They cover the power yardage as well as anyone in football. We don't set rules based on who is running it, because it doesn't matter. An end around is a run, because you are handing the ball off, and you are not passing the ball. Again, a bread and butter play from NE's halcyon days in the early 2000's. Should I discount short passes and screens, because they are really like running plays? I could, by the same logic that someone would use to discount a dive, draw, or end around. But playing fuzzy math to shoehorn facts( I didn't shoehorn anything, I stated I am not counting 2 QB runs and a reverse as part of utilizing our run game) into a shape we hope something could be won't get us closer to an appreciation of what succeeded and what failed in that game, which is all I want to do. Perhaps I should have elaborated on what I meant about using our running game more. I want to see a power run formation used more then we have, BJGE with 6-7 blockers and 2 Wrs(for PA). In this particular game BJGE ran for 2 first downs and 21 yards on 4 carries in the first half. It wasn't a delayed woodhead draw, or reverse. It was line up smash mouth and it worked the whole game the little we used it. This is what I am saying we need more of because it was working against the Jets pass heavy defense The play selection was 28 runs to 30 passes not counting those last two drives where they HAD to pass because they were behind,and the two nonce time passes with 33 seconds in the half, where NE just threw short screens to Woodhead hoping the Jets would mess up and let him loose in the field. It was, in short, nothing like a pass-fest. It was almost 50/50 balanced. My overall point being, that when New England had time they were running the football. But the hole the defense (among other things like Crump's inexusable drop, and the silly special teams gaffe) put them in was what forced them to pass much later in the game. New England Patriots at 13:00 NYJ NWE 1st and 10 at NE 18 D.Woodhead left end to NE 22 for 4 yards (B.Pool, D.Harris). 2nd and 6 at NE 22 D.Woodhead left tackle to NE 24 for 2 yards (M.Devito). FUMBLES (M.Devito), recovered by NE-L.Mankins at NE 27. 3rd and 1 at NE 27 T.Brady pass short middle to W.Welker to NE 35 for 8 yards (A.Cromartie). 1st and 10 at NE 35 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to A.Crumpler. 2nd and 10 at NE 35 D.Woodhead left end to NE 39 for 4 yards (B.Pool, J.Taylor). 3rd and 6 at NE 39 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to D.Branch to NE 47 for 8 yards (D.Revis). 1st and 10 at NE 47 B.Green-Ellis left guard to 50 for 3 yards (T.Pryce). 2nd and 7 at 50 D.Woodhead up the middle to NYJ 42 for 8 yards (B.Pool). 1st and 10 at NYJ 42 D.Woodhead right end to NYJ 35 for 7 yards (D.Lowery). 2nd and 8 at NYJ 40 T.Brady pass short left to W.Welker to NYJ 31 for 9 yards (D.Revis). 1st and 10 at NYJ 31 D.Woodhead right guard to NYJ 31 for no gain (S.Ellis). 2nd and 10 at NYJ 31 T.Brady sacked at NYJ 34 for -3 yards (S.Pouha). 3rd and 13 at NYJ 34 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short right to D.Woodhead. NYJ-D.Revis was injured during the play. 4th and 13 at NYJ 34 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short left to D.Branch. Here is one of our final 3 drives above. 7 of our Runningbacks total 23 rushes. It came with 13 minutes left in the 4rth qtr and it ended with brady throwing 3 straight times and turning the ball over on downs. We took what the defense gave us finally but screwed it up by passing 3 straight. 1st half 20 passing plays. 10 running back rushes(for solid ypc)=3 total points. The heavy pass attacks failure in the 1st half is what lead us to a 14-3 half time deficit imo. That is what I challenge you to refute my friend. Not that by the end of the game they had passed the ball more than they ran it... that the game plan that put them behind on offense was quite balanced . I show above how this is not true, 1st half 20 pass to 10 rushes by runningback 13 if you want to count a reverse,a Brady scramble and a Brady QB sneak. More importantly then the number of the plays were the facts that Benny running was working because the Jets were in a heavy pass defense ! I don't see how it's a situation where it can be seen two ways. They are either running the ball or passing the ball, and there is a ratio. It is a hard stat. It can't be changed. You can claim they passed before the last two drives a whole lot more than they ran it... but the box score disagrees. You can also count the last two drives, which does tip the balance over to pass heavy, but it really only helps my argument that the defense really let them down in the end. It couldn't keep the game close, and they were forced into throwing for their lives in the last 3 minutes (13 passes on two drives). Z, in this circumstance you want to discount the final 2 drives which were all passes and I agree but the drive right before those accounted for 7 of our runningbacks total 23 rushes, which means only 16 RB rushes in the 1st 3 qtrs when BJGE running was working great. Not to mention most of those runs were woodehead draws out of a passing formation and not power running. It should be recognizable, because it is exactly the kind of situation where NE's defense actually becomes effective... when they force the opponent to become one dimensional late in the game by scoring and getting a lead. New England could have run the ball 15-20-30 more times that game. Sorry. It wouldn't have made a lick of a difference. The defense needs to stop the opponent from scoring. In the end, to agree or disagree with my position, you need to answer the question I pose first. Should NE be running the football with three minutes left down by ten points? Of course not but they should have run the ball more to avoid getting in that hole in the first place. 5 sacks and 2 Tom Brady turnovers to BJGE 5 ypc 2 1st downs in first half alone supports my answer.
Posted by TrueChamp[/QUOTE]
1.) That is 21 rushes outside of that drive. You keep discounting plays because they don't look a certain way. Edelman and Tates reverses were both eleven yard gains, and one followed a run play of 2 yards by BJGE.
And you are counting the two garbage time :33 to go before the half passes to Woodhead and Branch, which again are irrelevant. Those could have been runs or whatever, or kneel downs, or two long bomb plays. They are only statistical noise.
New England ran the ball 28 times. Talking about formations etc, is irrelevant with this offense because it is 2TE. A run is a run, because in the end the only difference between power runing and non-power running is BJGE for Woodhead. The 2TE offense personell stays on the field either way. I mean, they played Crump for almost the entire first half. That alone says they came out trying to run to establish the pass.
I don't accept your premise that running the ball with BJGE more has any real impact on the first three quarters because they did run the ball with BJGE. The FG drive was extremely balanced, but Crump dropped the ball when he was wide open. If he hangs on to that, the game is likely changed.
2.) NE didn't mess anything up. They passed three times, but that was AFTER no gain on a first down rush attempt. Then a quick sack where Ellis just abused Connolly and Koppen together. Then you have to pass. Then they went for it on 4th down ... most likely because BB DOESN"T TRUST HIS DEFENSE IN TIGHT GAMES.
By the same token, I can say the worst drive of the game ... the shortest drive, least clock killing drive, least effective drive was a quick three and out with three straight runs .... it was abyssmal. BJGE was blown off the ball for -1 yards. They should have tried a short pass or let Brady sneak for the yard. Either would have worked IMO. It would have extended the drive. Killed at least another 1:45, and maybe gotten them some points eventually.
As you see, we can both cherry pick plays back and forth, so that won't get us anywhere. Every pass you say wasn't smart, I can come back to another run for -1, 0, 1, or 2 yards that could have been a successful pass. It's a zero-sum game.
All that remains is the set-in-stone mix. Which was 21 to 23 run to pass, discounting the :33 hailmary stuff. Before the 4th.
And you say that NE passed more BEFORE the 4th quarter, thus resulting in a low score. That isn't really true.
Don't include the only TD drive scored in the game to that point, which was 6 passes to 2 runs -- it was a success, so you can't say they should have run more. That was the last drive of the 3rd quarter and gave NE 8 points.
So ironcially enough, then, while NE is mixing it up 19 RUNS to 17 PASSES, they scored 3 points. AFTER that, they passed the ball another 26 times, and ran the ball another 9 times. They scored 18 points in that span.
So, keeping in mind, NE never, ever trailed in TOP in that game outside of the first Jets drive before NE took the field.
That was the first 43:56 of the game (-:33 seconds, of course, because I won't hold that against the offense), NE has a 19 RUN 17 PASS ratio. Almost all of it, right out of 2TE with Crump on the field, a.k.a. their power package.
After that. 26 passes to nine runs.
3 pts in 43:23 --> 19 Runs 17 Passes
18 pts in 16:04 --> 8 Runs 26 Passes
And you really want them to run more? I personally think the mix was fine that game, and again largely dictated by situational football practice, but if anything the stats indicate they should have passed it more.
In BOTH scenarios, the defense allowed 14 points. So the mix is irrelevant here to defensive performance really.
Like I said, NE needed to change two things after that game. Running BJGE isn't more often isn't one of them. The mix they had was ok, more or less, and was largely dictated by situational football late in the game. If the defense didn't put them in a hole, 21-11, they are probably still mixing it up in the 4th quarter. Don't allow the Jets that terrible TD where they go ahead 21-11 on a broken 2 minute drive where Sanchez is just scrambling around until Edwards is open, and NE has the ball with 13 minutes to play, and a very manageable 14-11 score, where they can run the football a bit more. That is the kind of stop the defense needs to make. Picking off Chad Henne when NE is up by 7-10 points, is ok, but not the same thing as the "D" hanging in there and buying some more time for Brady and the offense to make some fire.
1.) They needed another wideout to replace Tate, who was awful. Check. BB went out and did that. Most of those sacks in that game were coverage sacks. I think Ocho can at least make a contribution against Cromartie, thus making it more difficult for the opponent to leave their safety in the box to help knock Welker around and stack against the run.
2.) They need to upgrade the defense. Specifically, they needed help rushing the passer, and they tried to address that. We'll see how that pans out long term. But if NE is allowing Sanchez to throw for a 120 rating again next post-season, they won't be winning the game, even if BJGE is personally responsible for carrying the football on every single down.
7 points a quarter doesn't cut it.
If you give up 28 ppg you are the worst defense in the NFL. NE has given up 30 ppg in it's last four playoff losses .... the rest is academic. In the last two, they have given up 33 to the Ravens and 28 to the Jets. I cannot fathom how people are "ok" with this. Its abyssmal. If TB and company don't drop 35 points on their opponent, the ship is sunk with that defense.