Pats will trade up in this years draft

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from prob2236. Show prob2236's posts

    Pats will trade up in this years draft

    I think were going to see the pat go against what they usually do by trading down in drafts.  With this years multiple picks there is already plenty of picks in the 2nd and 3rd rnd and no need for Belicheck to stockpile later round picks.  I also think the Pats are begining to feel some desperation.  I think the Pats realize the window of opportunity is closing every year older Brady gets and if another run is going to put together then some big issues need to be filled with quality talent.  With that being said I believe Belicheck will package some picks (and maybe Mankins) to move up and grab a guy like Von Miller.  He is the right size, good speed and has produced as a high level pass rusher from the stand up outside linebacker position.  We always here about how some rookies will need to transition from the DE to outside lineback postion and how that transition can be difficult.  This guy will not need to make that transition.  Last year I was fiending for Sergio Kindle (Apparently a mistake on my behalf) but I think this guy is twice that talent.  This guy will be like Merriman was before injuries dragged him down.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBReigns. Show BBReigns's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    I felt this way since last summer.

    They have spent basically the last 2 drafts trading down almost exclusively, especially last year, because of the draft's depth.  Makes perfect sense to use the depth of the draft to its fullest capacity.

    But, isn't the approach for acquiring volume to make sure you hit, sort of over now? I'd say, yes.  

    He's used the volume approach well the last 2 years, and for the most part, the 2009 and 2010 drafts are part of the foundation now. 

    This draft caps it off. Time to get high impact as much as possible now.

    Bruschi hit on this in his chat with Reiss as well and I completely agree.   Maximize the picks of need at the top.

    Sell out the draft and trade up as much as possible if you think you have slam dunk fits. 

    With the rookie cap likely a slam dunk reality in the next CBA this only reinforces this approach.

    I wouldn't trade up for Von Miller because he's only a 4-3 OLB/DE in my opinion, but I would trade up for someone like JJ Watt.

    I am starting to be convinced that Watt and then Cameron Jordan are the two best fits here for DE, in that order.

    Regardless of Ty Warren or Stroud/Gerard Warren or even Ron Brace, they'll need a top notch younger player here, so I feel this is really the safest and highest impact need in Round 1, not OLB.

    I don't see Watt getting by Dallas.   And Jordan can probably go to a 4-3 team just as easily as a 3-4 team, so he's unlikely to last until 17.

    I see this draft as a hybrid between 2007 where they moved some picks strategically to acquire needs, and something like 2009, but this draft will be more in line with immediate needs for NE (DE/OLB, Interior O Line in the 1st two rounds).

    I'd send the back end 2nd Rounder to Carolina for Steve Smith, too.

    Maybe they want a 2nd rder of some sort back.

    I'd be thrilled with something like this:

    8  DE JJ Watt (28 and 33 traded to SF for #8 overall)
    17 T/G Carimi
    45 OLB Brooks Reed (acquired from SF in JJ Watt trade up move)
    74 RB Shane Vareen

    (Steve Smith)

    If you come out of the draft with these kinds of moves, I'd say it looks quite good.

    Deal Mankins for a 1st rd/early 2nd (targeted - crap team) pick in 2012.

    Sign RB Michael Bush to a cheap, veteran deal.



     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcour382. Show jcour382's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    only problem russ is you wont be able to trade players...

    im not optimistic on new cba... union has gotten big head and I dont see owners giving much more back of the top of the rev pie...
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBReigns. Show BBReigns's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    Right. This is all contingent on the enw CBA being finalized, obviously.

    The Steve Smith or Makins moves are more add-on ideas or potential moves that can be made during or after draft weekend.

    I was more responding to the draft approach. Everyone assumes BB will trade down and out, which he very well may in certain spots.

    But, I don't think he does that in Round 1 or 2, this year.  I agree with Bruschi and thought that would be the approach after a good 2009 draft and a great 2010 draft.

    Those approaches worked well and now it's time to bump up your assets to secure slam dunk rookie starters on the lines.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from prob2236. Show prob2236's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    What is it about Watt the excites you so much?  I think I would rather have Kerrigan or Jordan before id want Watt.  Id even say reach for another position like Julio Jones at Wr before pursuing Watt.  Watt doesn't address pass rush.  Hes a Mike Wright type player.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Philskiw1. Show Philskiw1's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    I have a hard time not seeing pick 33 shopped all night. Theres always an Al Davis and a Dan Snyder out there. Like I said maybe we can trade it back to Carolina for next years #1 lol.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBReigns. Show BBReigns's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    In Response to Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft:
    [QUOTE]What is it about Watt the excites you so much?  I think I would rather have Kerrigan or Jordan before id want Watt.  Id even say reach for another position like Julio Jones at Wr before pursuing Watt.  Watt doesn't address pass rush.  Hes a Mike Wright type player.
    Posted by prob2236[/QUOTE]

    This is Mike Wright level?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QT2-mRCgX0

    Watt is bigger, rangier and more athletic than Wright, not to mention more productive in college, in arguably the best conference in the NCAA.

    Keep in mind, he's not done completely growing/filling out yet.

    I also like his character. He took the Rose Bowl loss like it was a funeral.

    Pass rush is a team effort up front in this 3-4, it's not just off the edge.   NE had one when they had a complete set across the front with Seymour, Wilfork and Warren.

    Maybe Warren can return, maybe Stroud steps up, but maybe Watt is the guy that completes the front 3.

    Finally, I think you take more of a risk in Round 1, thinking you can get a 4-3 DE to start and convert to a 3 down OLB at the NFL level.

    Kerrigan looks like the real deal, but can he be a 3-4 OLB right away?  Cunningham was a 2nd rd pick who played pretty good learning the position, but don't expect Clay Matthews. That's an aberration.

    NE needs impact there pretty quick and maybe Kerrigan can do it. I don't see Von Miller surviving whatsoever at a 3-4 OLB in the NFL.  He's not even a DE in a 4-3.

    He's a true 4-3 OLB in my opinion. Ayers is 4-3 OLB, more so than 3-4 OLB. Maybe he can gain some weight and improve in the run stopping category, but I still see risks with these guys.

    Very tough to do.  Clay Matthews pulled it off because he isn't asked to be as responsible against the run, as he would here in this 3-4.  So, he's allowed to basically play like a 4-3 DE like a Freeney or Mathis.  "Just go get the passer and worry about the run if you can make a play".

    It's just not that easy to get a 3 down OLB out of college.

    Watt is a run stopper, athletic and can get a push.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from prob2236. Show prob2236's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    I just think there will be better player a bigger positions of needs other than Watt.  There will be a handful of pass rush lanbackers and DE available, Watt is not that guy. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBReigns. Show BBReigns's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    What is he then?  He's not a DT or DE in a 4-3.  He's huge. He's too heavy for OLB.  6'6 295 and still growing.

    He'll end up at over 300 lbs once he starts playing in this league.

    3-4 DE.

    Are you saying the DE spot doesn't need to be addressed?  Are you also saying the DE role in a 3-4 has no presence with a pass rush?

    I like Wilkerson as well. But, he's more of a guy at #33.  Heyward is probably my 4th choice.  He'd go good value at #28.

    Who do you like as as DE?

    My concern is, once a 3-4 team like a Cleveland or Dallas goes for a Watt or Jordan, maybe a Clayborn, or someone like that, somewhere in the top 10, that just triggers the chips to fall.

    Sure, it's deep, but the quality also drops off once you get down to Wilkerson.

    How would you rank this team's needs?

    In my opinion:

    DE (1st round)
    OLB (late 1st round/early 2nd round target)
    G/T/C (1st round/early 2nd round target)
    RB (2nd round target)
    WR (2nd round target or beyond)
    CB (3rd round or beyond)

    Durability at DE (Ty Warren since 2008, Seymour traded, Jarvis Green, Mike Wright, Brace) has been NE's problem in recent years as much as pass rush, in my opinion.


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boston-kyle. Show Boston-kyle's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    Only guy I see the Patriots trading up to get would be if Nick Fairley slides past the #5 spot of the Cardinals. It would be a huge splash that would steal Day 1 Headlines but highly unlikely. However, with character issues it could make him slide further than expected based on the recent trend over the past few years of top 10 talent with "character risks" falling: (ie: Dunlap, Michael Johnson, Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson).   Other than that there is not much added value in trading up for a DE or OLB. This position is deep but drops off drastically after mid 2nd round. Id prefer that they address the DE position with #17 (or before). 
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from apdynasty23. Show apdynasty23's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    No way in hell do the Patriots draft Nick Fairley. He already said he doesn't want to play in the cold weather (which he has now recanted but we all know, you can't recant a statement like that, especially if you're going to make mega bucks). I also don't think he fits the character mold we're looking for. The Patriots have drafted team captains and high character guys lately and I see the payoff.

    Unless Fairely really drops and the Patriots see a low risk/high reward scenario, I don't see it happening.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from fishers5. Show fishers5's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    In Response to Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft:

    Lets think out of the box and addess is isues that have led to the recent defeats...Super bowl.....offensive line..........Baltimore...no pass rush and offensive line.(Maybe just a bad game).....Jests...NO pass rush and offensive line.....Seems like a pattern that has to be addressed......lets say trade up.. get the D help....we have lots of large slow D lineman.....speed kills.....then get bigger stronger players on the O line....    Gonna be a fun draft ...
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    I'd bet the farm if I had one that BB sticks with his present pattern. Talent is a hard thing to judge just by watching a little video or working a guy out. With the NFL you have to throw as many players against the wall as you can and see who sticks! If ever there was an inexact science drafting Players is it. BB likes multiple choice answers so he'll stick with his usual trading down and not up.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    In Response to Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft:
    [QUOTE]What is it about Watt the excites you so much?  I think I would rather have Kerrigan or Jordan before id want Watt.  Id even say reach for another position like Julio Jones at Wr before pursuing Watt.  Watt doesn't address pass rush.  Hes a Mike Wright type player.
    Posted by prob2236[/QUOTE]

    What about him makes you think that he can't rush the passer? 

    How does drafting him not address the pass rush?

    How is he a Mike Wright type player? 
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBReigns. Show BBReigns's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    Yeah, I don't see Fairley as a fit here. He's also prone to stupid penalties and I question the IQ aspect.

    DE is deep, but it all matters how fast those top 5 DEs go. If they start to fall quick, you aren't getting that player

    I felt Alualu was a major reach last year at #10, but apparently not. He looks to be the real deal.

    If NE doesn't secure a DE somewhere between thr 1-5 echelon DEs before pick #34, I think the quality level drops off.

    In other words, another Ron Brace is not a need.  Brace may continue to progress, but he looks like a 2nd rd draft pick with his slower, deliberate development.   

    The need is a bonafide DE future starter, preferably this year.

    If that does happen, one guy I think they can work with who may have some nice upside is Baylor's Phil Taylor.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from tagandtrade. Show tagandtrade's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    why so he can get fat while we are waiting for the billionaires to decide what they want to do with there money?
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBReigns. Show BBReigns's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    In Response to Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft:
    [QUOTE]I'd bet the farm if I had one that BB sticks with his present pattern.Posted by sportsbozo1[/QUOTE]

    Hasn't history shown us to not bet the farm on anything BB does?

    I pretty much said that same thing entering the 2007 draft, too.

    If I had to put money on it, I'd gamble that he trades up (if he has to) secure a Jordan or a Watt in the 1st round.

    You gotta come out of this 1st rd with strong, immediate need selections, not necessarily the best player.

    Like, if AJ Green or Mark Ingram fall to 17, do you take one of them?  I guess you'd sort of have to in that case.   But, after those hypotheticals, there really won't be "he's the best player but it's not at the top of your list for need" types after the top 15 picks.

    The top 10 is usually "he's the best player at the position" picks.

    But, I am not convinced all the DEs, especially the talented yet not slam dunk fits like a Clayborn or Heyward, are what you want for a Round 1 pick.

    In other words, get what you really need in this draft, not just the best player.

    The best player is better when you aren't this close to a legit SB run.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBReigns. Show BBReigns's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    Right. I was just giving an example of top tier, prime players being considered #1 at their positon.

    At WR it's Jones and Green. At RB,it's Ingram. I am just saying, unless one of those kinds of players drops, it appears the best and safest bet both for need and quality, is to work on the lines in this first round.

    I don't see BB missing at all at DE or OL in Round 1.  He never has before and he won't this year.

    In fact, if he goes OL and DL in Round 1, I bet he scores two legitimate Pro Bowl caliber players right off the bat.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Philskiw1. Show Philskiw1's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    If I had to bet I'd say that #33 turns into a #1 next year and maybe a #3 this year.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBReigns. Show BBReigns's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    You'd have to make that trade.

    The best would be if NE got a 1st rounder and they dealt that #33 to a team that will lay an egg this year, obviously.

    A team with a bad QB situation like a Cincy or someone like that.

    If BB can pull that one off and somehow a CBA comes down and they can deal Mankins?

    They pretty much guarantee another good/great draft in 2012.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hammer219. Show hammer219's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    If they trade up, i think it would be for Aldon Smith . . . a better choice for DE . . . I'd like to have Watt, but he isn't good value at that high position . . . love to have him at 28. I think they will take a DE and OLB with their first 3 picks
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Philskiw1. Show Philskiw1's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    Cincy and Minny would be good targets Marve Lewis is in a have to win now situation. Minny is close and maybe one more high draft pick could put them over the hump.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    In Response to Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft:
    [QUOTE]If they trade up, i think it would be for Aldon Smith . . . a better choice for DE . . . I'd like to have Watt, but he isn't good value at that high position . . . love to have him at 28. I think they will take a DE and OLB with their first 3 picks
    Posted by hammer219[/QUOTE]

    Aldon Smith is far too small to play 34 DE, he'd need to kick outside to LB.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    Who are these people who have seen the Pats trade down or out 10 or 15 times for every once that they've traded up (and only 1 spot for Ty Warren), but every year assume that BB will go opposite to his normal form?

    First rounders are overvalued, first by pie-in-the-sky owners, and second by 10 or 15 coaches who might lose their jobs this year if they don't win right now, so they jump at the opportunity for an immediate contributor.  BB creates a (quite profitable) market for these overspenders.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from unclealfie. Show unclealfie's posts

    Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft

    In Response to Re: Pats will trade up in this years draft:
    [QUOTE]I felt this way since last summer. They have spent basically the last 2 drafts trading down almost exclusively, especially last year, because of the draft's depth.  Makes perfect sense to use the depth of the draft to its fullest capacity. But, isn't the approach for acquiring volume to make sure you hit, sort of over now? I'd say, yes.   He's used the volume approach well the last 2 years, and for the most part, the 2009 and 2010 drafts are part of the foundation now.  This draft caps it off. Time to get high impact as much as possible now. Bruschi hit on this in his chat with Reiss as well and I completely agree.   Maximize the picks of need at the top. Sell out the draft and trade up as much as possible if you think you have slam dunk fits.  With the rookie cap likely a slam dunk reality in the next CBA this only reinforces this approach. I wouldn't trade up for Von Miller because he's only a 4-3 OLB/DE in my opinion, but I would trade up for someone like JJ Watt. I am starting to be convinced that Watt and then Cameron Jordan are the two best fits here for DE, in that order. Regardless of Ty Warren or Stroud/Gerard Warren or even Ron Brace, they'll need a top notch younger player here, so I feel this is really the safest and highest impact need in Round 1, not OLB. I don't see Watt getting by Dallas.   And Jordan can probably go to a 4-3 team just as easily as a 3-4 team, so he's unlikely to last until 17. I see this draft as a hybrid between 2007 where they moved some picks strategically to acquire needs, and something like 2009, but this draft will be more in line with immediate needs for NE (DE/OLB, Interior O Line in the 1st two rounds). I'd send the back end 2nd Rounder to Carolina for Steve Smith, too. Maybe they want a 2nd rder of some sort back. I'd be thrilled with something like this: 8  DE JJ Watt (28 and 33 traded to SF for #8 overall) 17 T/G Carimi 45 OLB Brooks Reed (acquired from SF in JJ Watt trade up move) 74 RB Shane Vareen (Steve Smith) If you come out of the draft with these kinds of moves, I'd say it looks quite good. Deal Mankins for a 1st rd/early 2nd (targeted - crap team) pick in 2012. Sign RB Michael Bush to a cheap, veteran deal.
    Posted by BBReigns[/QUOTE]

    No way do we trade our #17 and #33 for Watt. He'd be a great player for us but lots of mocks have him falling to #17 or even #28.

    I would however package those two picks for Von Miller. He's far and away the best OLB in the draft and he could be our Willie McGinest for the next 6-8 years.

    If we then took the best available DE at 28, with all the talent available at that position in this draft, we'd be golden. WE'd have a first round talent at DE, Von Miller at OLB and our remaining picks to invest in OG, RB and WR!
     

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