PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads

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    Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads

    In Response to Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads:
    Interesting read, but I take it you do not drink?
    Posted by russgriswold

    I drink rarely.
     
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    Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads

    Paul K,

    I remember your rankings from last season. How did your initial season power rankings measure up against the final records?

    One thing I wanted to do last year was track peoples predictions. By the time I got it together it was too late but I'm going to do it this year for the regulars.

    I remember getting slaughtered a couple weeks last season, I remember everyone taking a turn at that come to think. Teams like Carolina, Cincy, Den and San Fran killed me, they'd show up and then they wouldn't.

    I'll start a thread to get everyone's predictions on Thursday and then post results Tuesdays. Maybe we can determine who the boards best handicapper is? 
     
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    Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads

    In Response to Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads:
    So, I think your pointing more to immaturity, questionable decision making abilitity, etc.
    Posted by russgriswold

    That works for me.
     
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    Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads

    In Response to Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads:
    Maybe we can determine who the boards best handicapper is? 
    Posted by Sam-Adams

    The problem is, practically no system (except point shaving schemes) significantly beats the Vegas point spread.  My record against the spread was statistically insignificant.  My stats plus plenty of non-statistical analysis (reporting on recent injuries, for example) might be more useful, because the data would be coming from two unrelated directions.  I'm not going to put in that type of extra non-statistical work, though.
     
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    Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads

    In Response to Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads : The problem is, practically no system (except point shaving schemes) significantly beats the Vegas point spread.  My record against the spread was statistically insignificant.  My stats plus plenty of non-statistical analysis (reporting on recent injuries, for example) might be more useful, because the data would be coming from two unrelated directions.  I'm not going to put in that type of extra non-statistical work, though.
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    I think that's because the Vegas spread does take the time to put in every possible statistical variation possible. There are two ways to beat it;

    One, don't bet

    Two, bet only what you can afford to crumple up and flush down the toilet.
     
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    Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads

    Somehow I'll try to extract statistics out of the Cincinnati versus Dallas game. Ugh! 

    Tony Romo drove into field goal range, then Cincy's defense stiffened.  Carson Palmer's offense was miserable for all of two drives in front of an Ohio crowd.   It should count as a microscopic (that's all we get in preseason) first team victory for Dallas, considering that my previous point spread had the game not far from a tossup.  Neither quarterback played after the first quarter.  I declare this game's first-team score at 3-zip after one quarter.   I'm going to extrapolate to 12-zip at the end of regulation.

    Dallas is now up to an 8.4 point favorite over Oakland at halftime.  Cincinnati drops to a 3.4 point favorite at home over Denver at halftime. 

     
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    Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads

    I wouldn't think pre-season football would be the ideal petri dish for your tweaking your rankings.
     
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    Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads

    In Response to Re: PaulK’s Power Rankings and Point Spreads:
    [QUOTE]I wouldn't think pre-season football would be the ideal petri dish for your tweaking your rankings.
    Posted by garytx[/QUOTE]
    It isn't.  I regret that pre-season first team against first team and last year's rankings are most of what we have for real numerical rankings. 

    After that, we have 32 sets of homers and hometown reporters all expecting the local team to go 16-0. 

    The Vegas odds are often influenced by the sheer size of the betting public in larger markets.  According to this theory, you could get a slight Vegas edge betting on small town underdogs like Jacksonville, Carolina and Tennessee.  Otherwise, bettors generally waffle between last season's records and how the first team is doing lately.  That's what my statistics try to cover.
     

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