Power Ratings, Week 13

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    Power Ratings, Week 13

    OK, I’ll take criticism. 

    New Orleans spanked the Pats.  OK, that’s one trap game between two division rival games for the Pats.  Maybe New Orleans really wanted the pride and fame.

    New Orleans was ahead at the end of the third quarter like a good team should be, and so the score brings New England down a notch and New Orleans up.  However, after we add the other 100 NFL games New England is still on top, outweighing this one game.  So let’s look at the numbers:

    I believe that my “three quarters” statistical power rating system has a fundamental soundness to it across the NFL, a soundness that a simple win-loss record doesn’t reflect.  It’s sensitive enough that we can look at all the outliers and ask what happened in each case.

    The big positive outliers are Indianapolis and New Orleans.  They both have pass-happy attacks, they both often get behind like bad teams do and they both consistently pull wins out of dangerous situations in the fourth quarter.

    One big negative outlier is Miami.  Miami has a rookie QB and they run lots and lots of gimmick plays.  My guess is that their opponents figure out the gimmick plays, or Miami can’t either remember or execute all those intricate gimmicks when they’re gassed in the fourth quarter.

    Another negative outlier is New England.  Best guess, they start talented rookies, and the rookies are always gassed in the fourth quarter.  How’s that?

    Also they just played two high-stakes gambles against two highly offense-minded teams, and both gambles failed big.  That’s exactly why I designed my rating system, to screen out the big gambles. 

    Finally, when they’re grossly ahead they play the most consistent prevent in the league.  Or they used to.  Brady is something ridiculous like 75-4 when he’s ahead at the start of the fourth quarter. 

    Also, the Patriots have had an awesome offense and a suspect defense for years.  BB plays ball control like crazy.  He’d rather have a 20 play drive for a field goal than a 1 play drive for a touchdown.  He’d rather have Sammy Morris dive into the pile three times than throw an interception in the fourth quarter.  He’d rather go for first down on a 4th and 1 late in the game than try a long, meaningless field goal.  He’d rather hike the ball clean out of the endzone than punt.  My ratings system counts ball control.

    Any other suggestions on why the Pats collapse in the fourth quarter? 

    1          ne            14.1            (last wk. 1)

    2          no            12.7            (last wk. 5)

    3          min            12.3            (last wk. 4)

    4          mia            12.3            (last wk. 3)

    5          ind            11.6            (last wk. 2)

    6          sd            11.3            (last wk. 7)

    7          gb            11.1            (last wk. 10)

    8          cin            10.6            (last wk. 8)

    9          pit            10.3            (last wk. 9)

    10        az            10.3            (last wk. 6)

    11        nyj            10.2            (last wk. 11)

    12        bal            9.7            (last wk. 13)

    13        hou            9.7            (last wk. 17)

    14        dal            8.6            (last wk. 14)

    15        atl            8.4            (last wk. 12)

    16        den            8.1            (last wk. 20)

    17        phi            8.0            (last wk. 16)

    18        nyg            8.0            (last wk. 15)

    19        buf            7.6            (last wk. 19)

    20        car            7.6            (last wk. 18)

    21        sf            7.0            (last wk. 21)

    22        was            6.4            (last wk. 22)

    23        ten            5.8            (last wk. 25)

    24        sea            5.0            (last wk. 26)

    25        chi            4.9            (last wk. 24)

    26        jac            4.8            (last wk. 23)

    27        tb            4.4            (last wk. 30)

    28        cle            3.4            (last wk. 31)

    29        kc            3.2            (last wk. 27)

    30        stl            3.1            (last wk. 28)

    31        det            3.1            (last wk. 29)

    32        oak            2.3            (last wk. 32)

     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    Yes, please give it up already.  If it were a 45 minute game, the Pats would have won 2 more Super Bowls this decade.
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    I accept that my stats are somewhat delusional.  Why?  Also, how much is delusional and how much is real?  Are the Pats equal in strength to the other 7-4 teams?
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    HOW ARE THE PATRIOTS STILL NUMBER ONE?!??!?!??!?!??!??!

    I didn't even BOTHER to look at the rest of the "rankings"

    does not compute
    does not compute
    does not compute
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    Paul,

    You and Herm Edwards would not get along.  He plays to win the game.  Your system plays to win 3/4 of the game.

     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Re: Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]Paul, You and Herm Edwards would not get along.  He plays to win the game.  Your system plays to win 3/4 of the game.
    Posted by underdoggg[/QUOTE]

    "New Orleans was ahead at the end of the third quarter like a good team should be, and so the score brings New England down a notch and New Orleans up. However, after we add the other 100 NFL games New England is still on top, outweighing this one game.  So let’s look at the numbers:

    I believe that my “three quarters” statistical power rating system has a fundamental soundness to it across the NFL, a soundness that a simple win-loss record doesn’t reflect."

     

    This just blows my mind.  Good teams are ahead AT THE END OF THE GAME.  As for the first three quarters, who cares?  If a team leads for three quarters and loses, it still counts for one loss.  If a team loses for three quarters and wins, it still counts for one win.

    To paraphrase Bill Parcells, you are what your record says you are.  There's no extra credit for playing a team close or for playing well for part of a game.

     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]OK, I’ll take criticism.   New Orleans spanked the Pats.   OK, that’s one trap game between two division rival games for the Pats.   Maybe New Orleans really wanted the pride and fame. New Orleans was ahead at the end of the third quarter like a good team should be, and so the score brings New England down a notch and New Orleans up.   However, after we add the other 100 NFL games New England is still on top, outweighing this one game.   So let’s look at the numbers: I believe that my “three quarters” statistical power rating system has a fundamental soundness to it across the NFL, a soundness that a simple win-loss record doesn’t reflect.   It’s sensitive enough that we can look at all the outliers and ask what happened in each case. The big positive outliers are Indianapolis and New Orleans.   They both have pass-happy attacks, they both often get behind like bad teams do and they both consistently pull wins out of dangerous situations in the fourth quarter. One big negative outlier is Miami.   Miami has a rookie QB and they run lots and lots of gimmick plays.   My guess is that their opponents figure out the gimmick plays, or Miami can’t either remember or execute all those intricate gimmicks when they’re gassed in the fourth quarter. Another negative outlier is New England.   Best guess, they start talented rookies, and the rookies are always gassed in the fourth quarter.   How’s that? Also they just played two high-stakes gambles against two highly offense-minded teams, and both gambles failed big.   That’s exactly why I designed my rating system, to screen out the big gambles.   Finally, when they’re grossly ahead they play the most consistent prevent in the league.   Or they used to.   Brady is something ridiculous like 75-4 when he’s ahead at the start of the fourth quarter.   Also, the Patriots have had an awesome offense and a suspect defense for years.   BB plays ball control like crazy.   He’d rather have a 20 play drive for a field goal than a 1 play drive for a touchdown.   He’d rather have Sammy Morris dive into the pile three times than throw an interception in the fourth quarter.   He’d rather go for first down on a 4th and 1 late in the game than try a long, meaningless field goal.   He’d rather hike the ball clean out of the endzone than punt.   My ratings system counts ball control. Any other suggestions on why the Pats collapse in the fourth quarter?   1           ne             14.1             (last wk. 1) 2           no             12.7             (last wk. 5) 3           min             12.3             (last wk. 4) 4           mia             12.3             (last wk. 3) 5           ind             11.6             (last wk. 2) 6           sd             11.3             (last wk. 7) 7           gb             11.1             (last wk. 10) 8           cin             10.6             (last wk. 8) 9           pit             10.3             (last wk. 9) 10         az             10.3             (last wk. 6) 11         nyj             10.2             (last wk. 11) 12         bal             9.7             (last wk. 13) 13         hou             9.7             (last wk. 17) 14         dal             8.6             (last wk. 14) 15         atl             8.4             (last wk. 12) 16         den             8.1             (last wk. 20) 17         phi             8.0             (last wk. 16) 18         nyg             8.0             (last wk. 15) 19         buf             7.6             (last wk. 19) 20         car             7.6             (last wk. 18) 21         sf             7.0             (last wk. 21) 22         was             6.4             (last wk. 22) 23         ten             5.8             (last wk. 25) 24         sea             5.0             (last wk. 26) 25         chi             4.9             (last wk. 24) 26         jac             4.8             (last wk. 23) 27         tb             4.4             (last wk. 30) 28         cle             3.4             (last wk. 31) 29         kc             3.2             (last wk. 27) 30         stl             3.1             (last wk. 28) 31         det             3.1             (last wk. 29) 32         oak             2.3             (last wk. 32)
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    Paul
    your system is off. Miami at 4? 
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    Once again you are a beacon in the fog Paul. When I need guidance this is the post I wait for every week. Life isn't too bad is it? Your a glass half full guy and I like it.
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Re: Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Power Ratings, Week 13 : Paul your system is off. Miami at 4? 
    Posted by jbolted[/QUOTE]
    Well, Miami stayed completely in stereotype last week.  After 3 quarters, playing away at Buffalo, they were up by 7 and a bit ahead in time of possession too.  A couple of beer commercials later the Bills hung up a tying touchdown.  The teams trade a few punts halfway through the fourth quarter.  Then with 6 minutes to go, Ryan Lindell manages to hit a 56 yard field goal.  Wow!  That's when Chad Henne goes into do or die mode and he quickly throws 2 interceptions for 14 more Buffalo points.  Final score, Buffs by 17.

    Now, if you hadn't seen the game, which final score would you believe?  Miami with second year, second round draft choice Chad Henne by 7 at Buffalo, or Buffalo by 17 with their brand new quarterback, former seventh rounder and discard Ryan Fitzpatrick?  Personally I'd take the cop-out that neither team could possibly have won, but that option isn't available when the teams play each other.

    Overall, I wouldn't say Miami was that terrible at Buffalo, they just preferred to fall apart in desperation in the last 6 minutes.  Both teams are playing wounded, and so I wouldn't be surprised to see the both of them fall off the cliff like Wyle E. Coyote after hanging successfully in the air for 5 seconds.  I can't say why Miami has played reasonably well despite the recent loss of Pennington and Ronnie Brown, but they have. 

    1.  Maybe Sparano and Parcells really convinced the guys that they're going to make the playoffs despite a 5-5 record (now 5-6). 

    2.  Something about Miami as a team gets gassed in the fourth quarter, more than other teams?

    3.  Miami may also apparently be a statistical anomaly.  Nobody said the stats would line up perfectly after 11 games.  Buffalo was 60 yards down the field at the end of the third quarter, about to get a touchdown, but I can't account for that fine a gradation.  Not on my zero budget.

    4.  Finally, my stats have some memory of Miami earlier in the season.  It will take time for Miami to plunge.
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    You're no Jeff Sagarin.  A game is 60 minutes long.  Of those 3600 seconds, you only need to have the lead for the very last one of them.  What qualifies you to use this equation? 
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    This guy is a genius! Can we get the NFL to use this for the playoff seeding? It's nice to see the biggest difference in rankings is from 1 to 2. That proves the Patriots are by far the best team in the NFL!!!
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Re: Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE] Good teams are ahead AT THE END OF THE GAME.  As for the first three quarters, who cares?
    Posted by NickC1188[/QUOTE]
    Power ratings are all about predicting who is likely to win next week. 

    Sometimes this system works.  Denver was once 6-0.  That's pleasing if you're a Denver fan, but my power ratings called Denver a fake, and that's the word I used for them.  Denver was squeaking by the weak teams and they played a bunch of weaklings, so the 6-0 wasn't quite reflective of Denver's abilities.  Lo and behold, Denver has gone on a 1-4 bender. 

    Now, at the end of the 4 game skid I still didn't give Denver a zero. They were down to 20th in the power ratings, the Giants were 15th, and the game was at Denver.  So, I'm not particularly overwhelmed that Denver beat the Giants.

    A power rating system based strictly on Denver's 4 quarters (and overtime) record, 6-0, doesn't predict such a bender, not the tiniest bit.  Nor would the 4 game skid predict the Giants game.  I will say that for most NFL games, these third quarter power ratings seem to be a better predictor of the final score than any system based purely on 4th quarter win-loss records.

    The stats aren't perfect.  Anyone reading the paper can predict better than the stats that a team without its starting quarterback is going to lose next week.  (Exceptions:  Buffalo, which had almost nothing to lose, of course Oakland, and sometimes Cleveland)

    I can understand if you're rooting for a team with a perfect record, and some statistics predict that your team isn't that good, you're not going to like those numbers or the formula behind the numbers. 

     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    Paul does your system make any distinction about how many or few points a team is up at the end of three quarters?  If so, how?  Just trying to understand your system's logic.
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Re: Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]Paul did you eat paint chips as a kid? 
    Posted by DBAZ22[/QUOTE]
    Good one liner.  Can be applied on anyone.

    [QUOTE]
    Tommy Boy and Paul are classics. 
    Posted by DBAZ22[/QUOTE]
    If you're comparing me to Tom Brady, I'm completely unworthy of the praise.  Actually, the statement is rather devoid of context.  DBAZ22, did you eat paint chips as a kid?
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Re: Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]Paul does your system make any distinction about how many or few points a team is up at the end of three quarters?  If so, how?  Just trying to understand your system's logic.
    Posted by underdoggg[/QUOTE]

    My completely homemade stat is the number of victories that a team would achieve if the season restarted tomorrow, and if teams played each other at random. It works on the following principles:

    1. I count point differential because it’s exactly what each coach desires.  I claim that each team plays its most predictive football for three quarters.  In the fourth quarter teams take on strategies not to maximize points, but to seal the win, to gamble for the win or occasionally to try out the rookies.  For these reasons I count only the first three quarters of point differential as a statistical signal for future game potential. Yes, blowouts count for more differential.

    Currently I consider scoring in the fourth quarter as too much noise to get a useful signal.  If I were a pro I might sometimes, but never during blowouts, score the first half of the fourth quarter too, and on top of that I would want to factor in field position at the cutoff time point.  For example, a team with first down on the opponent’s one yard line at the cutoff point deserves at least 6 points of credit.  This extension into the fourth quarter would help to satisfy the fourth quarter mavens.  However, all those gradations would take too much work for me to do.  I just use third quarter scores for now.

    2. A team that dominates time of possession statistically does better in the fourth quarter.  Whole-game time of possession (excluding overtime) is independent of point differential.  I arbitrarily give 1 point for each 2.5 minutes of possession over 30. 

    3. A home team should be three points better.

    4. For calculating my point spreads, I arbitrarily assume that a team with a strength of 9-7 will be 1.5 points better than a team with a strength of 8-8.

    5. Most stats connected to this league assume that the September results are just as significant as last week’s results.  I don’t.  Good ratings start to go stale as teams change. Many teams see season-ending injuries to key players and of course the teams stay that way.  Sometimes newbie defenses and offenses start to get better.  I have an arbitrary weighting factor that applies a 10% per game stale rate.  I want current power rankings for teams, not some old laurels.  So, that infamous Tennessee game is fading fast.

    6. My spreadsheet then goes to work and finds out what 32 NFL power rankings would best fit the above criteria with minimum variance, over a season full of 100+ games. 

    So far I like my power rankings.  They predict next week’s Vegas point spreads with modest accuracy.  More important, I can predict future scores, in a completely different way, in a statistically independent way, which is great. 

    Note that my stats are completely blind to quite recent injury reports.  I often qualify my stats.  At this point I tend to combine my independent information with various conventional sports columnist opinions and rankings.

    As always, gambling is for people who don’t understand mathematics.

     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Re: Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Power Ratings, Week 13 : My completely homemade stat is the number of victories that a team would achieve if the season restarted tomorrow, and if teams played each other at random. It works on the following principles: 1. I count point differential because it’s exactly what each coach desires.   I claim that each team plays its most predictive football for three quarters.   In the fourth quarter teams take on strategies not to maximize points, but to seal the win, to gamble for the win or occasionally to try out the rookies.   For these reasons I count only the first three quarters of point differential as a statistical signal for future game potential. Yes, blowouts count for more differential. Currently I consider scoring in the fourth quarter as too much noise to get a useful signal.   If I were a pro I might sometimes, but never during blowouts, score the first half of the fourth quarter too, and on top of that I would want to factor in field position at the cutoff time point.   For example, a team with first down on the opponent’s one yard line at the cutoff point deserves at least 6 points of credit.   This extension into the fourth quarter would help to satisfy the fourth quarter mavens.   However, all those gradations would take too much work for me to do.   I just use third quarter scores for now. 2. A team that dominates time of possession statistically does better in the fourth quarter.   Whole-game time of possession (excluding overtime) is independent of point differential.   I arbitrarily give 1 point for each 2.5 minutes of possession over 30.   3. A home team should be three points better. 4. For calculating my point spreads, I arbitrarily assume that a team with a strength of 9-7 will be 1.5 points better than a team with a strength of 8-8. 5. Most stats connected to this league assume that the September results are just as significant as last week’s results.   I don’t.   Good ratings start to go stale as teams change. Many teams see season-ending injuries to key players and of course the teams stay that way.   Sometimes newbie defenses and offenses start to get better.   I have an arbitrary weighting factor that applies a 10% per game stale rate.   I want current power rankings for teams, not some old laurels.  So, that infamous Tennessee game is fading fast. 6. My spreadsheet then goes to work and finds out what 32 NFL power rankings would best fit the above criteria with minimum variance, over a season full of 100+ games.   So far I like my power rankings.   They predict next week’s Vegas point spreads with modest accuracy.   More important, I can predict future scores, in a completely different way, in a statistically independent way, which is great.   Note that my stats are completely blind to quite recent injury reports.   I often qualify my stats.   At this point I tend to combine my independent information with various conventional sports columnist opinions and rankings. As always, gambling is for people who don’t understand mathematics.
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    If it is 'too much noise' then dither the signal.

    Don't disclude it, but make it a progressive rating system that weakens the importance of the 4th quarter.

    Simply discarding Data makes it seem skewed.


     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]OK, I’ll take criticism.   New Orleans spanked the Pats.   OK, that’s one trap game between two division rival games for the Pats.   Maybe New Orleans really wanted the pride and fame. New Orleans was ahead at the end of the third quarter like a good team should be, and so the score brings New England down a notch and New Orleans up.   However, after we add the other 100 NFL games New England is still on top, outweighing this one game.   So let’s look at the numbers: I believe that my “three quarters” statistical power rating system has a fundamental soundness to it across the NFL, a soundness that a simple win-loss record doesn’t reflect.   It’s sensitive enough that we can look at all the outliers and ask what happened in each case. The big positive outliers are Indianapolis and New Orleans.   They both have pass-happy attacks, they both often get behind like bad teams do and they both consistently pull wins out of dangerous situations in the fourth quarter. One big negative outlier is Miami.   Miami has a rookie QB and they run lots and lots of gimmick plays.   My guess is that their opponents figure out the gimmick plays, or Miami can’t either remember or execute all those intricate gimmicks when they’re gassed in the fourth quarter. Another negative outlier is New England.   Best guess, they start talented rookies, and the rookies are always gassed in the fourth quarter.   How’s that? Also they just played two high-stakes gambles against two highly offense-minded teams, and both gambles failed big.   That’s exactly why I designed my rating system, to screen out the big gambles.   Finally, when they’re grossly ahead they play the most consistent prevent in the league.   Or they used to.   Brady is something ridiculous like 75-4 when he’s ahead at the start of the fourth quarter.   Also, the Patriots have had an awesome offense and a suspect defense for years.   BB plays ball control like crazy.   He’d rather have a 20 play drive for a field goal than a 1 play drive for a touchdown.   He’d rather have Sammy Morris dive into the pile three times than throw an interception in the fourth quarter.   He’d rather go for first down on a 4th and 1 late in the game than try a long, meaningless field goal.   He’d rather hike the ball clean out of the endzone than punt.   My ratings system counts ball control. Any other suggestions on why the Pats collapse in the fourth quarter?   1           ne             14.1             (last wk. 1) 2           no             12.7             (last wk. 5) 3           min             12.3             (last wk. 4) 4           mia             12.3             (last wk. 3) 5           ind             11.6             (last wk. 2) 6           sd             11.3             (last wk. 7) 7           gb             11.1             (last wk. 10) 8           cin             10.6             (last wk. 8) 9           pit             10.3             (last wk. 9) 10         az             10.3             (last wk. 6) 11         nyj             10.2             (last wk. 11) 12         bal             9.7             (last wk. 13) 13         hou             9.7             (last wk. 17) 14         dal             8.6             (last wk. 14) 15         atl             8.4             (last wk. 12) 16         den             8.1             (last wk. 20) 17         phi             8.0             (last wk. 16) 18         nyg             8.0             (last wk. 15) 19         buf             7.6             (last wk. 19) 20         car             7.6             (last wk. 18) 21         sf             7.0             (last wk. 21) 22         was             6.4             (last wk. 22) 23         ten             5.8             (last wk. 25) 24         sea             5.0             (last wk. 26) 25         chi             4.9             (last wk. 24) 26         jac             4.8             (last wk. 23) 27         tb             4.4             (last wk. 30) 28         cle             3.4             (last wk. 31) 29         kc             3.2             (last wk. 27) 30         stl             3.1             (last wk. 28) 31         det             3.1             (last wk. 29) 32         oak             2.3             (last wk. 32)
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]


    Please tell me you're joking. Please?

     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Re: Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]I accept that my stats are somewhat delusional.  Why?  Also, how much is delusional and how much is real?  Are the Pats equal in strength to the other 7-4 teams?
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]
    This is the reality
     
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    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    the actual power ratings:
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30
    31
    32
     
    New Orleans Saints
    Indianapolis Colts
    Minnesota Vikings
    San Diego Chargers
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Dallas Cowboys
    New England Patriots
    Philadelphia Eagles
    Arizona Cardinals
    Baltimore Ravens
    Miami Dolphins
    Houston Texans
    Green Bay Packers
    Tennessee Titans
    New York Jets
    Atlanta Falcons
    New York Giants
    Carolina Panthers
    Denver Broncos
    San Francisco 49ers
    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Chicago Bears
    Washington Redskins
    Buffalo Bills
    Kansas City Chiefs
    Seattle Seahawks
    Tampa Bay Bucs
    Oakland Raiders
    St Louis Rams
    Cleveland Browns
    Detroit Lions
     
    29.64
    28.90
    26.01
    25.89
    25.81
    24.31
    24.15
    23.88
    23.09
    23.02
    22.82
    21.73
    21.68
    21.27
    21.14
    20.77
    20.62
    20.24
    19.69
    18.90
    18.44
    17.46
    16.88
    16.28
    15.81
    15.34
    15.34
    13.68
    13.66
    11.45
    11.21
    10.88
     
    1.53
    1.81
    2.34
    3.25
    2.49
    2.23
    2.41
    3.14
    1.93
    4.43
    5.25
    2.71
    3.21
    1.86
    3.43
    1.83
    3.92
    1.79
    1.72
    3.52
    4.82
    3.04
    4.08
    2.50
    3.47
    3.05
    4.92
    2.73
    2.87
    3.35
    3.75
    2.55
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from DBAZ22. Show DBAZ22's posts

    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    Actually Paul the line "Did you eat paint chips as a kid?" came from the movie Tommy Boy which starred the late, great Chris Farley.  I was not comparing you to #12, and since you were unaware of the reference and that I actually had to explain that, well...I'm out.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from nyjoseph. Show nyjoseph's posts

    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]OK, I’ll take criticism.   New Orleans spanked the Pats.   OK, that’s one trap game between two division rival games for the Pats.   Maybe New Orleans really wanted the pride and fame. New Orleans was ahead at the end of the third quarter like a good team should be, and so the score brings New England down a notch and New Orleans up.   However, after we add the other 100 NFL games New England is still on top, outweighing this one game.   So let’s look at the numbers: I believe that my “three quarters” statistical power rating system has a fundamental soundness to it across the NFL, a soundness that a simple win-loss record doesn’t reflect.   It’s sensitive enough that we can look at all the outliers and ask what happened in each case. The big positive outliers are Indianapolis and New Orleans.   They both have pass-happy attacks, they both often get behind like bad teams do and they both consistently pull wins out of dangerous situations in the fourth quarter. One big negative outlier is Miami.   Miami has a rookie QB and they run lots and lots of gimmick plays.   My guess is that their opponents figure out the gimmick plays, or Miami can’t either remember or execute all those intricate gimmicks when they’re gassed in the fourth quarter. Another negative outlier is New England.   Best guess, they start talented rookies, and the rookies are always gassed in the fourth quarter.   How’s that? Also they just played two high-stakes gambles against two highly offense-minded teams, and both gambles failed big.   That’s exactly why I designed my rating system, to screen out the big gambles.   Finally, when they’re grossly ahead they play the most consistent prevent in the league.   Or they used to.   Brady is something ridiculous like 75-4 when he’s ahead at the start of the fourth quarter.   Also, the Patriots have had an awesome offense and a suspect defense for years.   BB plays ball control like crazy.   He’d rather have a 20 play drive for a field goal than a 1 play drive for a touchdown.   He’d rather have Sammy Morris dive into the pile three times than throw an interception in the fourth quarter.   He’d rather go for first down on a 4th and 1 late in the game than try a long, meaningless field goal.   He’d rather hike the ball clean out of the endzone than punt.   My ratings system counts ball control. Any other suggestions on why the Pats collapse in the fourth quarter?   1           ne             14.1             (last wk. 1) 2           no             12.7             (last wk. 5) 3           min             12.3             (last wk. 4) 4           mia             12.3             (last wk. 3) 5           ind             11.6             (last wk. 2) 6           sd             11.3             (last wk. 7) 7           gb             11.1             (last wk. 10) 8           cin             10.6             (last wk. 8) 9           pit             10.3             (last wk. 9) 10         az             10.3             (last wk. 6) 11         nyj             10.2             (last wk. 11) 12         bal             9.7             (last wk. 13) 13         hou             9.7             (last wk. 17) 14         dal             8.6             (last wk. 14) 15         atl             8.4             (last wk. 12) 16         den             8.1             (last wk. 20) 17         phi             8.0             (last wk. 16) 18         nyg             8.0             (last wk. 15) 19         buf             7.6             (last wk. 19) 20         car             7.6             (last wk. 18) 21         sf             7.0             (last wk. 21) 22         was             6.4             (last wk. 22) 23         ten             5.8             (last wk. 25) 24         sea             5.0             (last wk. 26) 25         chi             4.9             (last wk. 24) 26         jac             4.8             (last wk. 23) 27         tb             4.4             (last wk. 30) 28         cle             3.4             (last wk. 31) 29         kc             3.2             (last wk. 27) 30         stl             3.1             (last wk. 28) 31         det             3.1             (last wk. 29) 32         oak             2.3             (last wk. 32)
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    Paul,

    You are giving all of us in NE a bad reputation by posting this nonsense.

    Please stop now.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from sprfrk81. Show sprfrk81's posts

    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    LOL LOL HOW BAD IS BRAYLEN EDWARDS, CHOKE ON A PEN-IS U LOSER!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from sprfrk81. Show sprfrk81's posts

    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    N SANCHEZ HAD 89 COMPLETLY OPEN , N MISSD, KINDA LIKE HOW 12 MISSD 81 BOUT 10 TIMES THIS YR! LOL CMON , IM THE BIGGEST BOS-SPORTS FAN THRE IS, JST KIDDIN. LOL BUT HAS MISSD SUM EASY THROWS LOL!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    In Response to Re: Power Ratings, Week 13:
    [QUOTE]the actual power ratings:
    1 New Orleans Saints  29.64   1.53 
    2 Indianapolis Colts  28.90   1.81
    . . .
    Posted by viewer222[/QUOTE]

    Could you provide a web link?  I'd like to know what raw data the numbers are based on, and the reasoning behind the rankings.  The first number looks like some kind of aggregate power ranking score, and the second number refers to . . .  

    If these are your personal calculations, congratulations at least on trying! 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Evil2009. Show Evil2009's posts

    Re: Power Ratings, Week 13

    Why do people even argue about power rankings? They're a statistic created by sports media to give themselves something to write and talk about. No different from the Thursday injury report which was created by the NFL to give sports books help in setting lines. All of it is meaningless.
     

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