Real Analysis

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from uncommon-sense. Show uncommon-sense's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    That article puts a lot into perspective. It is a little too doom and gloom for my liking but unfortunately the numbers are the numbers. I'm not a guy that lives and dies by stats but the fact that a third of the teams sacks and half of TBC's sacks came against Buff illustrate how the Pats season went. Beat up on the bad and fall short when it counts.

    I have been a big Maroney supporter using the claim that he needed more carries to get going but the numbers indicate the exact opposite. I was wrong.

    I do think a few personnel moves and the Pats can be back at the top again.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    Some of that is somewhat out of context.

    RB scenario for example. 

    They did not use RB by committee back when Dillon was here like they have been in recent years. The philosophy, talent(type), and attitude toward running the ball was different. 

    He doesn't consider the OL play at all in his analysis. 

    He also doesn't include a minimum number of carries per game in any of his statistical analysis. It's comical, he's basically saying LM wears down after 5 carries. 5? Heck in half the games LM, or any of the backs for that matter, is lucky to get a dozen carries a game in this current system. That's barely enough to get going let alone wear down. Come On.

    I don't have time to look at the other scenarios right now maybe I will post again later.


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Tnutts. Show Tnutts's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    The only problem I have with this is NO team in the NFL has a workhorse. Benson lead the league in carries with 23.2 per game. There is only 4 backs in the league that averaged over 20 carries per game Benson, Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson, and Thomas Jones. Out of the top 10 guys in carries per game only 4 of their teams made the playoffs. The workhorse back is a thing of the past in the NFL. Most teams use 2-3 guys to run the ball.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jedinate. Show jedinate's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    I'm not a big Maroney supporter, but it's more likely the D knew the run was coming (I did, from my couch in Florida). This offense wasn'y exactly unpredictable this year.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from harleyroadking103. Show harleyroadking103's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    Rebuild the OL with top quality draftees/FA's first, then work on the skill positions.
    No qb, rb, or wr can do anything if the OL is lousy.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from SICOFITALL. Show SICOFITALL's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    Pretty good, I would disagree that a few new players not helping our road record though. Ive never been a Maroney fan and think our running game has been killing us the last couple of years. Theres blame on both in terms of the players and coaches. This team needs a back or two that scare defenders and other coaches into believing that the Pats have the stones and guys to actually run the run in a convincing manner. Right now, as is, everybody knows the only way the Pats put up 6 is through the air via Moss(and people want to get rid of him, morons). Second, well..we need the players! Teams know as we do, that Maroney has trouble being effective when hes asked to be a horse, he can come in for gash and go, but no-ones afraid of him taking it to them all day, nevermind a month or so. Im not a fan, but think he could be a good #2. I hate going rb in the first round, but if the Pats decide to go Spiller or Dywer, who I think will be available in the 2nd its hard to argue. RB is the easiest position that transeltes from college to pros. Everyone wants a olb as do I, but these guys are very hard to predict and the Pats cant afford to make any mistakes in this one. I think we need 3-4 guys that can start by 2011.  07 is killing us today, even with Merri. , who was taking steps backwards this year. Thats alarming because of the techniques that he keeps using, angles and judgement calls are terrible. And a guy that I love is Earl thomas from Texas, hed be a FS in the pros and I think is one guy that is worthing taking in the first rd. Also people need to stop talking like we need a 3rd rec, we need a #2 now as well. Do you think WW is coming back before NOV, and when he does he'll be at 75-80% of what he was.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    Re: Real Analysis

    posted at 1/14/2010 6:47 PM EST
     
    Posts: 574
    First: 11/23/2009
    Last: 1/14/2010
    Rebuild the OL with top quality draftees/FA's first, then work on the skill positions.
    No qb, rb, or wr can do anything if the OL is lousy.
    bring on the


    Exactly.  Give Brady a good O-line and he can get to the conference championship with Reche Caldwell as his #1 WR.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    I third Harley's rank re the OL!

    That said, having a versatile every down back (run, catch, block), even if not very fast, will help the OL.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    BB has claimed that sacks are overrated.  He's interested in several aspects of the pass rush such as knockdowns, pushing up the middle so the passer can't step into the throw, tipping the ball up in the air, and containment of running quarterbacks. 

    BB drafts completely strong, tall defensive linemen so that they can push up the middle.  He drafts or finds tall linebackers with extremely long arms so that they can push off of short-armed offensive linemen without being grappled.  Great height and arm length also play a part in tipping the ball and taking away passing lanes.  If I were trying to guess what the Patriots war room would do, I'd look for tall defensive front seven players of all types with extra long gorilla arms and great bench press scores.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    At receiver, Wes Welker made the offensive coordinators drool.  So they went out and drafted a guy with a 3.91 short shuttle time, fastest in the whole NFL draft.  OK, Edelman, you're a wide receiver now.  Presto, Edelman was a Welker clone by about game 8!

    Expect BB to draft another guy with a short shuttle under 4.00 seconds.  Edelman is good, Welker might possibly come back by November and Tate might possibly come back period.  But never count on a bad knee.






     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    STP43 that's true but was when Dillon was sort of running out of gas and kind of coming to the sideline for the oxygen mask every couple of plays.

    Also, and I guess this is semantics but I think of running back by committee what they do now with four backs where no one gets in a rhythm.

    I don't think of a two-headed attack as a running back by committee.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    RB

    Fred Taylor is back but he's a grandpa.  Sammy Morris is doing Big Pharma commercials too.  Maroney is a random number generator.  Let them run but sign/draft someone else, and don't lean on the law firm.  P.S. Kevin Faulk is getting really old too.  It's a young man's game.  That's two separate draft choices:  one heavy warhorse (or a small elephant like Jerome Bettis) and one Nimbus 2000 broomstick.  No fumble fingers need apply. 


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from uncommon-sense. Show uncommon-sense's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    "BB has claimed that sacks are overrated.  He's interested in several aspects of the pass rush such as knockdowns, pushing up the middle so the passer can't step into the throw, tipping the ball up in the air, and containment of running quarterbacks. 

    BB drafts completely strong, tall defensive linemen so that they can push up the middle.  He drafts or finds tall linebackers with extremely long arms so that they can push off of short-armed offensive linemen without being grappled.  Great height and arm length also play a part in tipping the ball and taking away passing lanes.  If I were trying to guess what the Patriots war room would do, I'd look for tall defensive front seven players of all types with extra long gorilla arms and great bench press scores."

    PaulK, I would buy that logic except for the fact that opposing quarterbacks have posted ridiculus ratings against the Pats. I remember all the emotional posters complaining that the Pats make guys like feeley and orton look like all-pros. Manning shredded the field on 70 yard drives in just a few plays.

    The Tyree catch in the superbowl Eli was under great pressure by AD and probably should have been called in the grasp but none the less the pass was completed with hands on him and in his face. If had gotten sacked the pass would have never been made.

    Sacks prevent the attempt from even occuring. There can't be a miracle completion to move the chains on third down if the qb is on his back crying.

    I agree that sacks aren't everything but don't discount them either.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    uncommon I am not sure PaulK was discounting them. What he said was 100% accurate about BB putting more emphasis on pressures, hits, containment.That's his philosophy.

    We haven't really had guys throwing up hug sack numbers on a regular basis even in our super bowl years.

    The OLB's through this decade with BB at the NE helm have seen very similar tackle and sack numbers from all the OLB's. Willie, Rosie, Vrabel, Adalius, etc. I wrote about it at the beginning of the year here when people were calling AT a bust. 

    What most people have been saying all year is that we did not have enough consistent pressure. Not necessarily sacks although no one would complain if we did get the sack obviously.

    If the QB feels the pressure and thinks he might get sacked then he's rushing his timing, his technique, throwing it a way etc. That's the effect and as good as a sack in most cases. If he feels comfortable like he has all day, well that's what we had too often this season and that's a major problem.

    The example you used comparing sack vs pressure is surely accurate but I would argue most of us pretty much agree that's a one in a million play.

    I think every team that wins a super bowl has a little luck along the way in either games before the super bowl or even in it, including the Patriots. That day the Giants had a little as well as playing a great game.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from uncommon-sense. Show uncommon-sense's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    Low - Burgess got good pressure on many plays but because he didn't produce many game changing plays most posters call him a bust.

    You cannot deny that sacks have gone done and as such quarterback hits and pressure have gone down as well. You can't get a sack unless you first get pressure. One has to come before the other.

    In their three championship seasons, the Patriots averaged more than 42 sacks per season. The last two years it has been 31 sacks. Thats a big difference especially when accounting for the fact that 33% of this years sacks came in 2 games against the same team.

    Yes, the pats need pass rushers but they also need impact players who contribute when the game is on the line and not just garbage time.

    You are wrong about the sack numbers for OLB this decade. I just checked but don't have the time to cut and paste everything. Even if you count all TBC and Burgess sacks as coming out of the 3-4 instead of a 4-3. The linebackers this year underperformed. The dline did as well especially jarvis green who has been a disappointment stats wise since 2007.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Wizardsjag. Show Wizardsjag's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    Posts: 574
    First: 11/23/2009
    Last: 1/14/2010
    Rebuild the OL with top quality draftees/FA's first, then work on the skill positions.
    No qb, rb, or wr can do anything if the OL is lousy.
    bring on the......draft


    So your saying Matt Millen was wrong...Haha!
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    uncommon so exactly where am I wrong. Here I will quote myself...

    The OLB's through this decade with BB at the NE helm have seen very similar tackle and sack numbers from all the OLB's. Willie, Rosie, Vrabel, Adalius, etc

    Here are the Sack numbers for Average # of sacks a season as a NE Patriot:

    Mike Vrabel 6 (skewed by his aberration year in 2007, other years weren't really that close)

    Willie Mcginist 5.7

    Adalius Thomas 4.8

    Rosevelt Colvin 4.4

    TBC 3.7

    Roman Phifer 1

    Matt Chatham .4

    If you want me to prove the same to you with regards to tackles I am more than happy to do it.

    I never mentioned "team" sacks. You used to get more from Corners, ILB's, and D-line. My point was and is that the OLB's responsibilities in BB's system keep them all relatively similar "statistically".
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from uncommon-sense. Show uncommon-sense's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    Your wrong in using averages because roles and responsiblities change during those years. Using the average doesn't account for Vrabel or AD's time on the inside. OR as you mentioned aberration or big years out of both Willie and Vrabel and Rosie. It also doesn't account for injury plagued seasons where a guy posted good numbers for half the year but was on Ir for the remainder like Rosie and AD.

    A good stat to look at is where the sacks come from in terms of quarter and score. Some players perform better during garbage time while others perform better during crunch time.

    The Dline also used to generate more pressure. Jarvis Green has been in steady decline for a few years and Seymour would get a lot more pressure out the base 3-4 than any dlinemen the Pats currently have on the roster Mike Wright would come close on a Seymour down year.

    Using the average is a quick but inaccurate method. The numbers have stories behind them.

    Bro, I am not arguing with you about anything but I do like having good exchanges with people that want to talk football and not junk.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    you are absolutely right the numbers always have context. I agree 1000% but the avg is the best quick way to get to the General idea.

    You'll notice I also said "similar". At the very least the average includes Everything. Injuries, games played, responsibities (alt position), aberration years etc. Still the average is just that. THE average and I stand by those numbers. All those guys had injuries, responsibility changes, good years and bad years and yet still when you averaged it all out their numbers were STILL very similar.

    I also agree with you about situation of the sack and have written about it here defending AT against the bust label where he had more impressive situational sacks than Vrabel did I think it was in 2007.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Real Analysis

    Donalds, I am not the first point this out, but Rice's success in that game and NE's inability to get rushing yards when they have the lead has more to do with the respective OLs and NE's DL, than NE's RB. NE's RBs were getting hit in the backfield. And the issue you raise about third and short is actually proof that the problem is more driven by what's happening or what's not happening at the line of scrimmage.
     

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