Talib

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Talib

    I simly don't think that BB gives this guy $20M guaranteed;

     

    NEPD Editor: Matthew Jones

    Last season, the New England Patriots acquired cornerback Aqib Talib from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in exchanged for a fourth-round pick, then re-signed him to a one-year contract in the offseason. Both decisions, particularly the latter, now appear to be brilliant moves, but the fact remains that the Patriots will now be forced to make a difficult decision about Talib this offseason, where they must choose between re-signing their top option to a massive contract extension or allowing him to depart in free agency. In this article, cases both for and against Talib will be made; leave a comment and let us know what you think should happen this offseason!

     

    The case for Talib:

    The case for Talib is relatively easy to make: this season, he has been one of the best man-coverage cornerback in the entire league. Talib is being targeted only once every seven coverage snaps, tied for 17th in the league, and allows just 0.81 yards per snap in coverage, a figure which is tied for ninth in the league. He surrenders a completion once every 17.7 snaps in coverage, ranking third in the league behind only Alterraun Verner and Darrelle Revis. All of these numbers reflect dramatically improved production from New England’s top cornerback, despite the fact that he has been frequently assigned to shadow an opponent’s best receiving option in man coverage on a weekly basis. Those opponents have included some of the league’s best receivers, including the likes of Stevie Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Jimmy Graham. With Talib on the roster, the Patriots can feel comfortable about their ability to limit the production of an opponent’s best option in the passing game.

    Talib’s arrival last season also benefited New England in 2012, when the team had previously been unsuccessfully experimenting with a variety of secondary configurations. After acquiring Talib, left cornerback Devin McCourty moved to free safety and became one of the league’s elite players at that position, right cornerback Kyle Arrington moved into the slot, where he has been more comfortable, and Alfonzo Dennard assumed right cornerback responsibilities, emerging as a quality starter in his rookie season. The arrival was particularly important because Bill Belichick and the Patriots had previously struggled to identify quality defensive backs in the draft, missing on cornerbacks such as Ras-I Dowling (second round, 2011), Darius Butler (second round, 2009), and Terrence Wheatley (second round, 2008.) If New England allows Talib to leave in free agency, they will likely have to try their luck again via free agency or the draft, whereas Talib represents more of a known quantity.

    Financially, Talib will likely be seeking a deal which pays him among the league’s elite cornerbacks, but his performance in 2013 has justified that cost; should he maintain this level of production, he will be an expense well-worth paying. New England has also managed their salary cap well historically, without many poor investments or players still in need of a contract extension, the only exceptions being middle linebacker Brandon Spikes (whose contract expires at the end of this season) and four starters whose deals expire in 2015, those being running back Stevan Ridley, left tackle Nate Solder, nose tackle Vince Wilfork, and safety Devin McCourty. Essentially, New England could try to fit the brunt of Talib’s cap impact into the next two seasons of his deal, sidestepping the possibility of his contract negatively affecting their ability to extend any of the players listed above, with the exception of Spikes.

    The case against Talib:

    Over the course of his six-year NFL career, Talib has yet to play in a full season, due to some combination of injuries and time missed due to league-mandated suspensions. Last season, Talib missed six games in total, but also left early in three contests: versus Houston (35/70 snaps), at Jacksonville (eight of eighty snaps), and versus Baltimore in the conference championship (8/74 snaps.) Overall, according to ESPN Boston’s final participation figures, Talib appeared on the field for just 27.5% of New England’s snaps that season, although that number also fails to factor in Talib’s time with Tampa Bay. Those injury concerns have re-emerged this season, as the cornerback has missed the past three games with a hip injury sustained early in the team’s week six contest versus New Orleans.

    Talib’s inconsistent play in 2012 also presents a cause for concern. The cornerback was credited with fixing New England’s previously porous secondary, but his metrics suggest that the real reasons for the team’s coverage improvements were a change in playcalling (emphasizing more blitzing and man coverage rather than conservative zone shells), the insertion of Alfonzo Dennard into the starting lineup, and the movement of Kyle Arrington into the slot and Devin McCourty to free safety. That reshuffling was made possible because of Talib, but could continue if the Patriots were to simply start 2012 third-round pick Logan Ryan at left cornerback, or acquire another starter via the draft or free agency. Talib was the tied for the 15th-most-frequently targeted cornerback as a Patriot in 2012, surrendering the fifth-most yards per snap in coverage and tying for the 13th-highest rate of completions per snap in coverage.

    Re-signing Talib will likely force the Patriots to pay him a premium price given his physical tools and his level of play this season. However, it’s possible that Talib, who has never played so well before, will be unable to sustain his production into the future; this may well be an outlier which is not necessarily indicative of what to expect from him moving forwards. Whether due to declining effort, injury, or the unsustainability of his 2013 performances, it’s possible, perhaps even likely, that the Patriots would be paying Talib for one unusual season which happened in a contract year. Teams have frequently been burned in the past by rewarding a one-year wonder with a contract which does not factor in previous struggles. Also, how will Talib’s work ethic be affected by the financial security a lucrative multi-year deal offers him?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TripleOG. Show TripleOG's posts

    Re: Talib


    This is gonna be a really tough decision. Best thing Imo to do is this. BB after the season ends, reach out to other gms to asess his worth going forward with his re occuring hip injury. Is he gonna get surgery. How will he perform afterwards. Try to get an honest gauge on the price of his services and offer no more than any other GM is willing to play and take in account he knows your sytem and you have had trouble drafting top flight Cbs. All you can do. YOu cant afford to pay him if he cant stay on the field. At his best, he is worth what the top CBs got 2 years ago, not being on the field?? I dont think that is worth anything.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I simly don't think that BB gives this guy $20M guaranteed;

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't see it happening.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from CHAMPSXLVIII. Show CHAMPSXLVIII's posts

    Re: Talib

    They could also give him money for each game he is active and pro bowl

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Talib

    I think he also likes being with this team. Given his experience in precious teams, he might value that enough so that he is okay with good dollars, not necessarily top dollar.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from WazzuWheatfarmer. Show WazzuWheatfarmer's posts

    Re: Talib

    8-10 million per year is likely what it would take.  If I were in charge, I would make sure he remains a Patriot for that price.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    all of the above sounds great, but he isnt going to sign here, or anywhere without a guarantee. I am not saying Revis money, but lets face it, Sean Smith got $11M guaranteed. Doesnt that put Talib at $15M minimum? 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from joepatsfan111111. Show joepatsfan111111's posts

    Re: Talib

    4yrs 36 mil. 18 mil gtd. That's what "discount" he may take for us. Question is pay him? Even if the market is down I don't see this guy taking anything less than 9 a year

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    8-10 million per year is likely what it would take.  If I were in charge, I would make sure he remains a Patriot for that price.

    [/QUOTE]

    A bit too high in this market, IMO.

    I don't see any team giving him 9 million per.  He's got some flags.  I think the 2008/2009 days of the 12 mil per CBs are dying. If he hadn't tweake the hip, you might have a better case, but that and his background will lessen the top end market value he otherwise would get.

    I don't see a team, even with plenty of cap room and money to spend, competing and being able to provide a better package overall.  7 mil per (on average) is probably where he'll fit.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I would agree with this based on the hip and games missed..3/$21M-$24M sounds correct, with $15M of it guaranteed

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from seawolfxs. Show seawolfxs's posts

    Re: Talib


    good job rkarp

    being lazy - is he 27 or 28?

    May be the first thing to be considered is he really coming back -
    after me hoping for the Kelly return , i feel a little less sure he is back until he is

    the other mitigatng factor, in the Pats favor for a deal, is that Revis hasn't exactly been the difference in win / loss. so it may give some trsmd room to pause for more $- However if the Pats win the SB his price with him playing hisd price will get jacked

    I think the price is $8-10m per yr  but the question is how much in guanteed $? and how long ? Can a team pay per games played?


    the Revis money was absurd and he was always angling for the next contract
    Asamwa? wasnt much better.

    I think paying qbs $20m a year is also a bit crazy, Balt got fleeced with Flaco - which was between a rock and a hard place- I wonder if  about now if Flaco wished he had Bolden who was the real MVP for that team last year in the playoffs and SB?
    (Please lets not get into the WW talk - lol)

    glad i am not writing the check
    <br/>

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Talib

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to seawolfxs' comment:
    [QUOTE]


    good job rkarp

    being lazy - is he 27 or 28?

    May be the first thing to be considered is he really coming back -
    after me hoping for the Kelly return , i feel a little less sure he is back until he is

    the other mitigatng factor, in the Pats favor for a deal, is that Revis hasn't exactly been the difference in win / loss. so it may give some trsmd room to pause for more $- However if the Pats win the SB his price with him playing hisd price will get jacked

    I think the price is $8-10m per yr  but the question is how much in guanteed $? and how long ? Can a team pay per games played?


    the Revis money was absurd and he was always angling for the next contract
    Asamwa? wasnt much better.

    I think paying qbs $20m a year is also a bit crazy, Balt got fleeced with Flaco - which was between a rock and a hard place- I wonder if  about now if Flaco wished he had Bolden who was the real MVP for that team last year in the playoffs and SB?
    (Please lets not get into the WW talk - lol)

    glad i am not writing the check
    <br/>

    [/QUOTE]

    part of the bonus money paid can be in games played (like Amendola) but thats a 2 way street, the player has to agree to it as well, and sign that type of contract.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the larger issue to mull over; is Dennard or Logan going to be a legit ace corner? if they are, do they mitigate the need for paying big (but fair) $$$ for Talib?

    I also understand the 2nd guess, no one knew how it would fall with Talib THIS year, would he come back. No one knew if Dennard would end up with prison time. No one knew if a draft choice CB could blossom in this defense. But now we know, is it 2nd guessing the $$$ allotted to Arrington?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, but if you are FA as a CB, and I believe many rolled the dice taking a 1 year deal to see if the market would move in 2014, that doesn't really help you since that's a lot of CBs competing.

    Next, the cap is flat through 2014, so that limits the aggressive nature in spending for most teams.  If the player wants to go to a crap organization and cash in, that's a different story.

    Talib needs the Pats as much as the Pats need Talib.  That's the real bottom line. It would behoove both to meet in the middle.

    Finally, 1st rd picks are like gold now.  This is a real gamechanger, IMO.  So, if you're a team that wants a Talib caliber type CB that is on a team in cap hell, you can toss a 1st rd pick easier now with rookie cap in place, which further floods the market and lessens demand. Take the top 5 CBs in each conference and you could control their extension and set up a trade to a team that is just wasting the use of that elite CB.  Look how fast these teams in cap hell just lost themselves.   It was building and obvious, but when it comes, it comes hard and quick, with years needed to build back up.

    The rookie cap and the cap structure off the lockout has completely changed the dynamic of the CB market now.  Teams have seen Asamougha get 16 million along with Revis and now see that it's a disaster in doing that.  I was trying to point this out in and out of the lockout as to why both Philly and the Jets were making massive mistakes.  That was never the real market.    Within that, it all trickled down to the bloated deals to Dunta Robinson, Jonathan Joseph, DeAngleo Hall, Samuel, etc, who were all overpaid in free agency. Look at those teams now.  Falcons fell of the cliff this year, Houston has lost their edge just as fast, Skins are morons, and Philly is also in a major bind.

    Talib, while clearly a top notch talent, has some red flags that hurt his position at the bartering table.

    The 2008-2012 CB FA era was an aberration.   It's not the norm.   It's beyond clear any organization paying CBs 10-15 million combined, if not more per year, is not a way to have a SB contending team. If you can get one elite or one quasi-elite CB in there for around 6-8 mil, you need your other CB to be a draft pick or someone you've developed.

    Even if the cap jumps the 5 million in 2015, that's not enough to just toss 10+ million to an elite CB anyway.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I understand your point, but do not think it applies to all situations.

    A defense that presses, blitzes and gambles, and leaves a CB solo on a WR, it is worth paying for a shut down CB. I am not saying it is owrth Revis money, but it is worth Talib money (if he is healthy).

    A defense like the Pats play, is less reliant on a shut down CB, although we certainly see the benefit when Talib shadows Graham and Jackson all over the field, many times solo.

    I think at the end of the day, Talib is offered strong money by another team, that the Pats feel they do not match.  

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, but if you are FA as a CB, and I believe many rolled the dice taking a 1 year deal to see if the market would move in 2014, that doesn't really help you since that's a lot of CBs competing.

    Next, the cap is flat through 2014, so that limits the aggressive nature in spending for most teams.  If the player wants to go to a crap organization and cash in, that's a different story.

    Talib needs the Pats as much as the Pats need Talib.  That's the real bottom line. It would behoove both to meet in the middle.

    Finally, 1st rd picks are like gold now.  This is a real gamechanger, IMO.  So, if you're a team that wants a Talib caliber type CB that is on a team in cap hell, you can toss a 1st rd pick easier now with rookie cap in place, which further floods the market and lessens demand. Take the top 5 CBs in each conference and you could control their extension and set up a trade to a team that is just wasting the use of that elite CB.  Look how fast these teams in cap hell just lost themselves.   It was building and obvious, but when it comes, it comes hard and quick, with years needed to build back up.

    The rookie cap and the cap structure off the lockout has completely changed the dynamic of the CB market now.  Teams have seen Asamougha get 16 million along with Revis and now see that it's a disaster in doing that.  I was trying to point this out in and out of the lockout as to why both Philly and the Jets were making massive mistakes.  That was never the real market.    Within that, it all trickled down to the bloated deals to Dunta Robinson, Jonathan Joseph, DeAngleo Hall, Samuel, etc, who were all overpaid in free agency. Look at those teams now.  Falcons fell of the cliff this year, Houston has lost their edge just as fast, Skins are morons, and Philly is also in a major bind.

    Talib, while clearly a top notch talent, has some red flags that hurt his position at the bartering table.

    The 2008-2012 CB FA era was an aberration.   It's not the norm.   It's beyond clear any organization paying CBs 10-15 million combined, if not more per year, is not a way to have a SB contending team. If you can get one elite or one quasi-elite CB in there for around 6-8 mil, you need your other CB to be a draft pick or someone you've developed.

    Even if the cap jumps the 5 million in 2015, that's not enough to just toss 10+ million to an elite CB anyway.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I understand your point, but do not think it applies to all situations.

    A defense that presses, blitzes and gambles, and leaves a CB solo on a WR, it is worth paying for a shut down CB. I am not saying it is owrth Revis money, but it is worth Talib money (if he is healthy).

    A defense like the Pats play, is less reliant on a shut down CB, although we certainly see the benefit when Talib shadows Graham and Jackson all over the field, many times solo.

    I think at the end of the day, Talib is offered strong money by another team, that the Pats feel they do not match.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course our D is better with Talib.  If Talib wants to stay, that's up to him.  If he wants a few million more and to play with a crap team, that's also up to him.

    I still say BB has the leverage. BB traded for him, resigned him and the flat cap with his red flags all favor a team friendly opportunity.

    I don't see many other teams driving the price due to the red flag factor and the fear of Talib not liking the environment as much as he appears to here.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    like any of us, first and foremost, he wants to get paid

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, but if you are FA as a CB, and I believe many rolled the dice taking a 1 year deal to see if the market would move in 2014, that doesn't really help you since that's a lot of CBs competing.

    Next, the cap is flat through 2014, so that limits the aggressive nature in spending for most teams.  If the player wants to go to a crap organization and cash in, that's a different story.

    Talib needs the Pats as much as the Pats need Talib.  That's the real bottom line. It would behoove both to meet in the middle.

    Finally, 1st rd picks are like gold now.  This is a real gamechanger, IMO.  So, if you're a team that wants a Talib caliber type CB that is on a team in cap hell, you can toss a 1st rd pick easier now with rookie cap in place, which further floods the market and lessens demand. Take the top 5 CBs in each conference and you could control their extension and set up a trade to a team that is just wasting the use of that elite CB.  Look how fast these teams in cap hell just lost themselves.   It was building and obvious, but when it comes, it comes hard and quick, with years needed to build back up.

    The rookie cap and the cap structure off the lockout has completely changed the dynamic of the CB market now.  Teams have seen Asamougha get 16 million along with Revis and now see that it's a disaster in doing that.  I was trying to point this out in and out of the lockout as to why both Philly and the Jets were making massive mistakes.  That was never the real market.    Within that, it all trickled down to the bloated deals to Dunta Robinson, Jonathan Joseph, DeAngleo Hall, Samuel, etc, who were all overpaid in free agency. Look at those teams now.  Falcons fell of the cliff this year, Houston has lost their edge just as fast, Skins are morons, and Philly is also in a major bind.

    Talib, while clearly a top notch talent, has some red flags that hurt his position at the bartering table.

    The 2008-2012 CB FA era was an aberration.   It's not the norm.   It's beyond clear any organization paying CBs 10-15 million combined, if not more per year, is not a way to have a SB contending team. If you can get one elite or one quasi-elite CB in there for around 6-8 mil, you need your other CB to be a draft pick or someone you've developed.

    Even if the cap jumps the 5 million in 2015, that's not enough to just toss 10+ million to an elite CB anyway.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I understand your point, but do not think it applies to all situations.

    A defense that presses, blitzes and gambles, and leaves a CB solo on a WR, it is worth paying for a shut down CB. I am not saying it is owrth Revis money, but it is worth Talib money (if he is healthy).

    A defense like the Pats play, is less reliant on a shut down CB, although we certainly see the benefit when Talib shadows Graham and Jackson all over the field, many times solo.

    I think at the end of the day, Talib is offered strong money by another team, that the Pats feel they do not match.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Of course our D is better with Talib.  If Talib wants to stay, that's up to him.  If he wants a few million more and to play with a crap team, that's also up to him.

    I still say BB has the leverage. BB traded for him, resigned him and the flat cap with his red flags all favor a team friendly opportunity.

    I don't see many other teams driving the price due to the red flag factor and the fear of Talib not liking the environment as much as he appears to here.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    like any of us, first and foremost, he wants to get paid

    [/QUOTE]

    I am pretty sure 7 or 8 per and security in a place you want to be is getting paid. We've all seen players take a bit more and lose their edge, going to a much crappier environment.

    Again, it's if NE wants to give him that long term deal and if Talib wants to be here. If those two things align, he'll be here.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I would agree with that, because that appears to be fair market price assuming no one does anything stupid. I simply dont think the Pats get him on a low ball offer...he is going to look for that $15-$18M guarantee

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  

     



    Yes, but if you are FA as a CB, and I believe many rolled the dice taking a 1 year deal to see if the market would move in 2014, that doesn't really help you since that's a lot of CBs competing.

     

    Next, the cap is flat through 2014, so that limits the aggressive nature in spending for most teams.  If the player wants to go to a crap organization and cash in, that's a different story.

    Talib needs the Pats as much as the Pats need Talib.  That's the real bottom line. It would behoove both to meet in the middle.

    Finally, 1st rd picks are like gold now.  This is a real gamechanger, IMO.  So, if you're a team that wants a Talib caliber type CB that is on a team in cap hell, you can toss a 1st rd pick easier now with rookie cap in place, which further floods the market and lessens demand. Take the top 5 CBs in each conference and you could control their extension and set up a trade to a team that is just wasting the use of that elite CB.  Look how fast these teams in cap hell just lost themselves.   It was building and obvious, but when it comes, it comes hard and quick, with years needed to build back up.

    The rookie cap and the cap structure off the lockout has completely changed the dynamic of the CB market now.  Teams have seen Asamougha get 16 million along with Revis and now see that it's a disaster in doing that.  I was trying to point this out in and out of the lockout as to why both Philly and the Jets were making massive mistakes.  That was never the real market.    Within that, it all trickled down to the bloated deals to Dunta Robinson, Jonathan Joseph, DeAngleo Hall, Samuel, etc, who were all overpaid in free agency. Look at those teams now.  Falcons fell of the cliff this year, Houston has lost their edge just as fast, Skins are morons, and Philly is also in a major bind.

    Talib, while clearly a top notch talent, has some red flags that hurt his position at the bartering table.

    The 2008-2012 CB FA era was an aberration.   It's not the norm.   It's beyond clear any organization paying CBs 10-15 million combined, if not more per year, is not a way to have a SB contending team. If you can get one elite or one quasi-elite CB in there for around 6-8 mil, you need your other CB to be a draft pick or someone you've developed.

    Even if the cap jumps the 5 million in 2015, that's not enough to just toss 10+ million to an elite CB anyway.

     

     



    I don't think anyone will be issuing a $16million per contract offer to Talib (or any CBs) for the time being. I could be wrong, but the heady days of Asomugha and Revis were abberational. The market was crazy for a while, spurred by those contracts setting it. But there has been an adjustment. 

    But there might be teams willing to go over $10 million, and yes, Talib would be wise to think about a.) how much he enjoys winning and b.) how well those teams will fit his skill set. In New England, as long as Brady is healthy, Gronk is healthy (by and large) and Chandler Jones is healthy, he stands to meet both of those criteria. There is a good young core of players here, and a HOF QB that could put together a nice 3-4 year run before it's all said and done: Talib could be part of that.

    Or he could roll the dice taking a massive contract somewhere like Washington or Philly or Dallas. There are other teams that are perrenial contenders. And there are other defenses in which he fits as well (obviously not Tampa) but he already has that here.  

    At the same time, he plays for money. It's his living. Like all players, he only has one go at his career, and he has already signed a team friendly contract here (with admitted advantages for him in 2014).

    You don't want to float the guy a ridiculous $6 million per offer in a market where he could stand to make something twice that. If it were a situation like that, I wouldn't blame him for not taking it; there is life outside of and (importantly) after football, and  millions of dollars can make real life a lot more secure. 

    Depending on the language in the contract something like $8.5 million per season with $18 million guaranteed (around the transition tag /franchise tag value) would be a reasonable offer -- if Talib can be healthy for the remainder of the season. Talib could get more on the open market, but it is high enough to demonstrate his value to the franchise. 

    Perhaps modelling a contract on Vince Wilfork's last contract plus a little for market inflation/positional adjustment, something like $36 million over 4 seasons, with the last season being essentially unguaranteed money is a deal that makes sense? 

    As far as the ramifications to NE's cap, Vince Wilfork has an $11.6 million cap figure which has to be mitigated either way -- either through a lower cost extension of by letting him go (as tough as that sounds, BB has done that several times to aging linemen) and possibly resigning him. I think there are clear options available for NE to clear some space. 

    At any rate, the ~$5 million Talib makes is far less than the value he brings to the defense. No, if it's $14 million or something, you let any player that isn't a QB walk. But Talib is probably the most valuable part of this defense going down the road, and at 27 he has a few years left in his prime. So a solid offer with a few seasons, and a salary that is in some way commensurate with the market would make sense. 

    IF he can stay healthy for the remainder, giving him an solid extension and raise that makes sense for both sides should be a priority. In my opinion. 

    You don't want to insult players with crazy low ball offers, but you do want to drive your bargain and try to commuicate organizational value that goes beyond money.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  

    [/QUOTE]

    I think the larger issue to mull over; is Dennard or Logan going to be a legit ace corner? if they are, do they mitigate the need for paying big (but fair) $$$ for Talib?

    I also understand the 2nd guess, no one knew how it would fall with Talib THIS year, would he come back. No one knew if Dennard would end up with prison time. No one knew if a draft choice CB could blossom in this defense. But now we know, is it 2nd guessing the $$$ allotted to Arrington?

    [/QUOTE]

    There is, of course, that. 

    Dennard is legit now, in my opinion. He isn't game changing like Talib, but he is a legit, quality corner in the NFL. 

    Logan Ryan actually looks promising too. 

    But neither of them, nor them together (right now of course) look anything like what Talib looks like. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Talib

    I would be okay with giving Talib a bit more than usual if we could get some kind of injury language like in Vollmer's contract.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    I could see something like this;

    $15M signing bonus

    2014 $1M salary    cap hit $4.75

    2015 $2M salary   $62,500 per game bonus ($1M)  cap hit $6.75

    2016 $2M salary   $62,500 per game bonus ($1M)  cap hit $6.75

    2017  $2M salary  $62,500 per game bonus ($1M) cap hit $6.75

    thats a $16M guarantee if he is on the roster June 1st 2014

    if he is on the roster June 1st 2015 he gets $18M

    compared to Arringtons deal, and each players performance, thats a fair deal

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:

    Vince will work with BB with his situation. Not worried about that.




    Or we'll just cut him.  Vince's cap hit is coming down next season one way or another.   I am not worried either.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to pcmIV's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Vince will work with BB with his situation. Not worried about that.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Or we'll just cut him.  Vince's cap hit is coming down next season one way or another.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    ditto Mankins?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Talib

    did you see the piece with Larry Luchino, that the RS will be undergoing roster changes this year? They need to be less romantic in bringing everyone back, and be more like BB.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    ditto Mankins?



    I'm not as down on Mankins as most here, but if you were going to do it, it certainly wouldn't be in 2014.  The cap savings wouldn't be sufficient next season to justify cutting him.  2015 on the other hand would be more viable.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to seawolfxs' comment:
    [QUOTE]


    good job rkarp

    being lazy - is he 27 or 28?

    May be the first thing to be considered is he really coming back -
    after me hoping for the Kelly return , i feel a little less sure he is back until he is

    the other mitigatng factor, in the Pats favor for a deal, is that Revis hasn't exactly been the difference in win / loss. so it may give some trsmd room to pause for more $- However if the Pats win the SB his price with him playing hisd price will get jacked

    I think the price is $8-10m per yr  but the question is how much in guanteed $? and how long ? Can a team pay per games played?


    the Revis money was absurd and he was always angling for the next contract
    Asamwa? wasnt much better.

    I think paying qbs $20m a year is also a bit crazy, Balt got fleeced with Flaco - which was between a rock and a hard place- I wonder if  about now if Flaco wished he had Bolden who was the real MVP for that team last year in the playoffs and SB?
    (Please lets not get into the WW talk - lol)

    glad i am not writing the check
    <br/>

    [/QUOTE]

    Baltimore got fleeced with Flacco because Ozzie sat back and risked losing his leverage. I warned of it at the time.   I don't even think they tried to get him re-upped off the lockout.   He gambled and lost. Now, with a 3-5 club with a weaker D and a weaker overall offense, they just don't have the pipeline to withstand.

    I remember people on here saying we should have traded a 1st rder for Ladarius Webb and then pay him the Courtland Finnegan money!  I think it was Prolate who had suggested it.

    I warned of him being moved outside and how it would expose him.

    http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-11-06/sports/bal-sports-blitz-lardarius-webb-corey-graham-struggling-20131106_1_lardarius-webb-corey-graham-webb-and-graham

    Look at his disaster for Baltimore:

    2014: $7.5 million, 2015-2016: $8 million, 2017: $8.5 million (Option Year)018: Free Agent

    Not trying to call Prolate out, but I still don't think people get the financials in all of this.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ledarius Webb, though, was never the corner that Talib has been the last two seasons. 

    Webb is good, and was overpaid a little but. He doesn't look as good this season, that is for sure. But a lot of that has to do with the general decay of Baltimore's defense altogether.

    YPSnap can skyrocket for any corner if they lose safety help. 

    Here is the rider about that deal ... Webb only received $20 million guaranteed ($10 mil in a bonus that is prorated through the first three seasons and $10 mil in salary that comes in the first two seasons). Those numbers look high, but after 2014 ... he is basically off the books for Baltimore. 

    But ... if I could sign Talib for that ^ deal, through 2018, I would. It would represent a great value for NE in having a consistent presence, and Talib is at the right age for it as well. 

    He's also a much better corner than Webb for what NE does. 

    The priority is less about Talib, than keeping Talib and Dennard together in a way that makes sense financially. 

     

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