The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

    Sorry, this is kind of long but heres a thought on why the Pats draft the way they do.

    I think a lot more goes into draft preparation than "which player do we need", and "which player is best".  The draft is a risk and simply relying on drafting high for good players doesn't necessarily guarantee anything.  If the players don't turn out you have a 2-11 team, If they do you have a dominant team.  That is probably why you see teams surge and dissapear over a year or two. 

    With a salary cap they probably project how much will a contract cost for a drafted player and project how much money they will have under the salary cap.  Then they would have to project which players on the team are free agents, do they want to sign them and can they sign them. 

    Lastly you would have to compare the value of a pick to the value of available free agents.  Teams might also plan who they can cut if a player becomes good and who they have if a player is a bust.  What if the Pats couldn't resign Moss last year because they had a big rookie contract on the books.

    You could argue that almost every player on the Pats except a few(Adalius) are underpaid and can (and often do) get more money from someone else when thier contract is up.  If you spend 120million on a team and they are worth
    130 or 140 million collectively when they become free agents than isn't that a better team than one where many players are overpaid(I'm thinking Redskins here) and spend 125million but thier value is much less as they become free agents.

    Last thing here is a link to the Pats salary cap as of NOV 7 and they spend a lot more than most people think 12th highest.
    http://www.askthecommish.com/salarycap/numbers.asp
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from carawaydj. Show carawaydj's posts

    Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

    I like your point about the cap space.  We've been hearing some fans criticize Kraft for being cheap.  You would think we would be #32 the way some people talk.  
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from m1020us. Show m1020us's posts

    Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

    Pats are always near the top in Cap spending.....it is just that they know how to manage it well and keep from going into cap hell plus managing to have a very competitive team every year.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheFantasyBaron. Show TheFantasyBaron's posts

    Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

    Its OK not to want to pay players but BB started off with some large contracts and good players: Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Willie McGinest, Drew Bledsoe, etc.

    I'm not seeing any commitment from the Pats on going after players like Law or McGinest anymore and I hope they do next year. A first round pick well researched is usually a lock. BB isn't very good at picking receivers but that's OK if Aiken develops this year. I like his luck picking lineman and LBs in the draft with high picks. I'm skeptical of his picks in the second round and wonder if he can't get what he wants if he just buys canon fodder for the practice squad.

    Where is Ron Brace and what happened to this guy? Is Patrick Cheung worth it? Will Mayo return to form eventually?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ewhite1065. Show ewhite1065's posts

    Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

    In Response to Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is:
    [QUOTE]Its OK not to want to pay players but BB started off with some large contracts and good players: Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Willie McGinest, Drew Bledsoe, etc. I'm not seeing any commitment from the Pats on going after players like Law or McGinest anymore and I hope they do next year. A first round pick well researched is usually a lock. BB isn't very good at picking receivers but that's OK if Aiken develops this year. I like his luck picking lineman and LBs in the draft with high picks. I'm skeptical of his picks in the second round and wonder if he can't get what he wants if he just buys canon fodder for the practice squad. Where is Ron Brace and what happened to this guy? Is Patrick Cheung worth it? Will Mayo return to form eventually?
    Posted by TheFantasyBaron[/QUOTE]

    This is my complaint also. It's not how much money they spend it's the way they spend it. They seem to want to pay more guys less money if that makes sense. We end up with more mediocre talent than star talent. I don't even think that's Krafts fault although I have mentioned his name in this context before. BB is the one who calls the shots. He knows where the cap is and who he wants on his team. Id rather have a few more top flight play makers if we're going to spend. Even though Thomas was a bust I appreciate what they were trying to do when they signed him.They thought he would be an impact guy like Rodney was when we brought him in. I'm not convinced that we have drafted poorly lately. I'm willing to give some of the recent picks another year to see how they pan out. My theory on the draft is get a good RB prospect and then draft defense with every other pick. Throw as much $h!t at the wall as you can and take whatever sticks.We have a lot of good picks this year and potential to maneuver.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from m1020us. Show m1020us's posts

    Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

    In Response to Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is:
    [QUOTE]Its OK not to want to pay players but BB started off with some large contracts and good players: Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Willie McGinest, Drew Bledsoe, etc. I'm not seeing any commitment from the Pats on going after players like Law or McGinest anymore and I hope they do next year. A first round pick well researched is usually a lock. BB isn't very good at picking receivers but that's OK if Aiken develops this year. I like his luck picking lineman and LBs in the draft with high picks. I'm skeptical of his picks in the second round and wonder if he can't get what he wants if he just buys canon fodder for the practice squad. Where is Ron Brace and what happened to this guy? Is Patrick Cheung worth it? Will Mayo return to form eventually?
    Posted by TheFantasyBaron[/QUOTE]

    Brace and Chung are now off the injury report.....Mayo is in form, you just don't know what form is. 

    Unfortunately it is people like you that don't unserstand anything about the cap and how it works.....

    I don't know any team in the NFL that has superstars at every position like you wan the Pats to have.....this isn't MLB in the form of the Yankees......
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from NickC1188. Show NickC1188's posts

    Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

    My position remains the same: draft prospects are black swan events (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory) and I think, given roughly equal chances of being successful between 1st and 3rd round picks, that it's better to get as many decent prospects as possible.

    Assuming your talent evaluation has a fallout rate of 30-40% for example, it's significantly riskier to bet everything on the chances of one high, expensive pick panning out than it is to bet significantly less money on 4-6 lower round prospects.

    You spend less money AND you ultimately end up with 2 or 3 more productive players than you would have if you bet it all on the chances that one high pick MIGHT not be a bust.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

    Does anyone have a breakdown of the 1st round draft picks of 2009 or 2008? 

    It's a little early to see who's a bust and who's a star but I wonder what the success rate is for 1st round draft picks.  25 of 32 are major contributors, or 10 of 32. what is the actual risk?

    High picks get paid like proven stars whether thy are or not, and will cause teams to have to cut players or let them walk.  The Pats are close to the cap limit you can't sign a big name without losing someone else.

    I took a look at 2001, Ty Law made big money but Mcginist and Milloy did not, It looked like they got upper to mid level type money in 2002.  Also the Pats were exremely lucky they dropped thier biggest contract in Bledsoe while having Brady making next to nothing.  I think that opened up thier options to sign thier overachievers.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from K-max. Show K-max's posts

    Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is


     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBcheats. Show BBcheats's posts

    Re: The Patriots draft may not be what you think it is

    Did the $750,000.00 fine count against the cap?
     

Share