The right call

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from oconnell99. Show oconnell99's posts

    The right call

    The clock management wasn't as good as we've come to expect, but here's why the fourth down gamble was the right call:

    Option 1: Punt. The Colts get the ball with 2 minutes, no timeouts. What are the odds they score? If the score they win, right - they aren't going to score with enough time left for us to score, given we have no timeouts, and given that they are going to manage the clock to make sure that we don't have a chance to respond. So what are the odds they score, given that our defense is gassed, and given that they are going to have 4 downs rather than 3 on this posession? I'd say 70% chance they score, and again, if they score they win.

    So if you you buy that analysis a punt means a 30% chance of winning the game.

    Option # 2 - go for it on fourth: If you go for it and make the first, the game is over. Period. 2 minutes, Colts out of time outs, three knees and it's done. What are the odds of making 2 yards on that play? Conservatively, a bit better than 50%. So they way I see it (and I really did think this at the time), you go for it and you have a better than 50% chance to win, you punt and you have a 30% chance to win.

    You have to separate the reality of odds from the reality of outcome. If someone lets you bet1 dollar to make three dollars on a coin flip, you made the right choice to take the bet, even if you guess wrong on the flip.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from charlesu2. Show charlesu2's posts

    Re: The right call

    Interesting perspective from the hated New York point of view:

    http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/16/defending-belichicks-fourth-down-decision/
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from oggieman. Show oggieman's posts

    Re: The right call

    Absolutely the right call.  And it absolutely worked because he actually made it.

    You hve to play odds and go with your best player.  After seeing some 4th quarter collapses down here, including the one to Manning, I totally agree with BB.  And if you want to run him out of there, send him here. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from sml1210. Show sml1210's posts

    Re: The right call

    In Response to Re: The right call:
    [QUOTE]Absolutely the right call.  And it absolutely worked because he actually made it. You hve to play odds and go with your best player.  After seeing some 4th quarter collapses down here, including the one to Manning, I totally agree with BB.  And if you want to run him out of there, send him here. 
    Posted by oggieman[/QUOTE]

    Absolutely the right call, but only half the strategy.

    If you're going to take that chance (partially on the belief that the defense can't contain Manning), then you let the Colts score IMMEDIATELY. That gives Brady about 90 seconds to drive into field goal range. Brady with the ball and 90 seconds down by one point is a better proposition than expecting the defense to hold Manning from 29 yards.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from MVPKilla2009. Show MVPKilla2009's posts

    Re: The right call

    They just went over the stats on 98.5 the sports hub and 76% of the time that the Pats go for it on 4th down with 2 yards to go they convert that play. And when they pass in that situation they converted 69% of the time so again it was the right call.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from marcfelgar. Show marcfelgar's posts

    Re: The right call

    It was the right call and here are the reasons why:

    1. Patriots have converted 78% of all of their fourth down attempts. They are 4/4 on fourht down attempts against the Colts in the regular season. This was a 4th and SHORT situation. You go with the probabilities of your team, not those of the rest of the league.

    2. It worked. Looking at the replay, Faulk got the first down, Pats were successful, this was a blown call - hard to work against a blown call

    3. If you believe Manning had a better than 22% chance of getting a touchdown with 70 yards, and 3 timeouts, wouldn't you take a 78% chance of putting the game away?

    4. Most couaches would not make that call, because if it failed, the blame goes squarely on their shoulders. Kick it off and if you lose, they get to blame it on their defense. That was the right call from a game management perspective. Bad call if your worried about career management.


    BB does a great job playing the percentages of his team, and shutting out the noise. Hopefully his players can shut out the noise as well. I actually think this will help rally the team arond eachother.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from bchan89. Show bchan89's posts

    Re: The right call

    it is the right call when they make the first down and the wrong one when they lose the game because of the call.  I knew he was gonna go for it because BB has gone for it on fourth down a bunch and BB actually did it against Atlanta almost the same place on the field except for 2 things:  The offense converted the play and it was only in the second quarter!
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Going-the-Distance. Show Going-the-Distance's posts

    Re: The right call

    BB made the right call last night-period...you play to win, not to lose...put the ball in your best player's hand and let the chips fall where they may...and yes, if the game was in Foxborough, Faulk has the first down and the game is 'iced' 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from TOGAH-2009. Show TOGAH-2009's posts

    Re: The right call

    I say you should have punted and if your lame defense can't stop Peyton then you don't deserve to win.  Well, you didn't deserve to win and you didn't win so I guess everything worked out.
     

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