Re: THE TRUTH IS, PATS FANS ARE SCARED
posted at 1/16/2014 4:47 PM EST
In response to seattlepat70's comment:
Of all the playoff games the Pats have played recently, I am most confident about this. Another way of looking at it is I would be concerned about SEA or SFF... not DEN
DEN's D - pass or run - is not good. Pats can hurt them on the ground or in the air. The Pats will be able to score.
DEN's pass D is crippled. The secondary is old and slow. Without Von Miller, the pass rush is not as good. If they focus on the run, TB will carve them out. Each of the NEP receivers can catch a long pass or catch a dink for big YAC.
DEN's run D stats are inflated. DEN D did well against teams who were good at running but bad at passing. Against these teams, who thought they could just control the game by running the ball, DEN defended against the run early. By half time or end of the 3rd, DEN already had a big lead. These teams had to abandon the run. These teams saw their YPC's drop and were forced to throw more in teh second half than they do normally.
Their losses were to three teams who can pass the ball - IND, NEP and SDC. These teams each ran the ball 30+ times. DEN was able to reduce these teams' YPC by 8%, vs 16% against the rest of their opponents.
I can see the Pats passing to set up the run. Pats will test the DEN pass D early, then switch to better balance midway through the first quarter.
On the flip side, NEP's D will do a better job than thier last meeting.
Siliga had not emerged yet back then. Collins is much better than he was back on the last meeting.
NEP will score more than on their last meeting. DEN will score less. I am actually thinking the NEP will blow out DEN on this one.
Pats will win by a score of roughly 44-20.
I would love it if you were right!!......even close. Nice breakdown.