True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)
posted at 7/25/2012 10:04 AM EDT
Y'all can give me a hard time, but I thought the title deserved equal time.
Here's the best video I've seen of the poor throw. Its very good quality. http://vimeo.com/36260742
Some thoughts: Brady wasn't pressured at all. He was in shot gun and the line held the defense very well.
It appears that Brady held the ball long enough to know that Welker was looking to the inside. This isn't a timing route so the idea that receiver and QB must be on the same page with their reads doesn't apply in my opinion.
Welker should have caught the ball. Brady, should have thrown a better ball. If you watch the play, watch the safety (who imo is Brady's only real concern). Before the snap the safety is moving from Welker's side toward the center of the field. Upon the snap, his first move is to the center of the field, away from Welker. Then, he moves out of the screen. He immediately put himself out of position on the play, which I believe Brady saw.
By 5 yards into his route, Welker is looking to his inside. With the safety not being a concern (not with Tom Brady's arm), and with the play not being a timing play, and with Brady not being pressured, Brady did not need to get rid of the ball so quickly. If he's going to hold the ball as long as he did on the safety, what changed here?
Maybe Brady was afraid of the safety so he put the ball in the location where only Welker could get it, but in doing so, he raised the degree of difficulty for the catch significantly. not only was it high, it was long. Intentionally thrown back shoulder throws are slightly short of the receivers momentum because receivers have to slow down to make the body adjustment for the ball.
Welker deserves kudos for the effort to get in position to make the catch, something only a handful of receivers in the NFL would and could do (imo). By being that skilled, he also becomes a goat because he was able to put his hands on a ball that the vast majority of other receivers wouldn't and couldn't.
Many on this board have diminished Welker's accomplishments in the face of this drop and his contract negotiations. They believe he's been good but primarily a product of the system. On the other hand, they have praised Tom Brady as the best of all time (top 3 minimum). If these things are even partially true, then its brady's responsibility especially with no pressure, in shotgun, a four man rush, and a developing (not timing) route to put the ball in the best position for the receiver to catch it. Especially for a receiver whose success has been due (as many have said) to the system and not his effort and skill.