Week 10 NFL Picks and

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Week 10 NFL Picks and

         The Week 10 rumble with the Colts in Indy represents the biggest regular season game that the Pats will play in, in 2009. As I mentioned in a prior thread, the Pats need to win this game not only to solidify their playoffs prospects, but to change the psyche of the team which, frankly, hasn't been the same since the SB 42 loss to the NY Giants.

         Both teams enter this game on winning streaks, have excellent offenses, but somewhat questionable defenses. But, you wouldn't know that from looking at the "points allowed statistic, in which the Colts have allowed roughly 15 points per game, and the Pats roughly 16 per game. 

         As you might have guessed, this is my "Game of the Week". Because it is such a huge game, I'll spend a bit more time than normal in analyzing this match-up:

         I.) Key Match-ups: 

          a.) Indy TE Dallas Clark vs. Patriots' Safeties Brandon Meriweather and Brandon McGowan:
    For all the notoriety of the Indy WRs, TE Dallas Clark leads his team in reception with 60. He is Peyton Manning's security blanket. It won't help that Brandon Meriweather will play with some sort of foot injury. If Clark has anything close to a 100 yard game, the Pats are in deep trouble:
    ADVANTAGE: Colts
     
          b.) Indy DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. Patriots' OTs Sabastien Volmer and Nick Kaczur:
    If Freeney and Mathis are contained, Tom Brady will have plenty of time to dink and dunk the Colts to death. If not, it will lead to sacks, interceptions, and a loss:
    ADVANTAGE: Colts

         c.) Zebra Factor:
    The Patriots can expect the obligatory bogus PI call(s), which always seem to befall them against the Colts. But, they should be able to survive those, provided that they can refrain from holding Freeney, and eliminate those annoying false start penalties. 
    ADVANTAGE: Colts

         d.) Two Minute Drill:
    Though the Patriots' "D" has played better than expected, it still has loads of problems stopping offenses in the last two minutes of each half. Peyton Manning is one of the best at it:
    ADVANTAGE: Colts

        e.) Laurence Maroney vs. Joseph Addai: That title is really shorthand for the Pats OL & DL v. Indy's DL & OL. Colts SS, Bob Sanders, is out for the season. Indy is thin at DT. So, the Pats should be able to run the ball. That said, Joseph Addai has killed the Pats throughout his career. Addai is particularly adepth at running delays, and catching passes out of the backfield:
    ADVANTAGE: Even

        f.) Redzone Proficiency: This has been a weakness for the Pats for most of the season. The absence of Sanders should make it easier for the Pats to score TDs instead of FGs:
    ADVANTAGE: Colts
     

        g.) Coaching: Coach Caldwell has done a marvelous job thus far. But, this is his first "big" game against a team with equivalent talent to his own. BB is the best in the business:
    ADVANTAGE: Patriots.

         Here are my picks: 


    1.) New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: If you look above at my match-ups, you'll notice that the Colts hold a 5-1-1 advantage. There was no mention of Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, since they basically cancel each other out.
         So...how can the Patriots win this game? They can win because they have the games' best coach calling the shots for them. If the Patriots can flawlessly execute his game plan, they'll win. 
         The other thing that the Pats have going for them is that the Colts haven't played all that well in their last two games...wins at home against the 49ers and Texans.  
         Since 2005, Indy has pretty much dominated this match-up. The Pats are good, but seem to be a cut below elite status. Hope they prove me wrong:
    PICK: Colts;

    2.) Chicago Bears (+3) @ San Francisco  49ers: The 49ers have lost two close games in a row, @ Indy, and home against Vince Young and the revitalized Titans. They'll get this one for their coach:
    PICK: 49ers;

    3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ NY Jets: The Jets will rebound this week after seriously damaging their season by throwing away what should have been an easy win over the Miami Dolphins:
    PICK: Jets;

    4.) Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): Redskins are just what the doctor ordered to get the Broncos back on the right track:
    PICK: Broncos;

    5.) Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers looked like the best team in the NFL last Monday night, when they pounded the Broncos in Denver. With two wins over the Ravens and one over the Steelers, the Bengals appear to be the real deal. But, Cincy lost to the Broncos at home, while the Steelers dominated them. 
    PICK: Steelers;

    6.) Buffalo Bills (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans:
    Too bad that the stubborn Jeff Fisher was forced by Titans' owner, Bud Adams, to replace the staid Kerry Collins with the mobile, exciting Vince Young.
    PICK: Titans;

    7.) Detroit Lions (+17) @ Minnesota Vikings: The Lions have been given the Rodney Dangerfield treatment by the oddsmakers in this one. This 17 point spread is the largest that I can remember, thus far this season. Let me heap even more disrespect on the Lions:
    PICK: : Vikings;

    8.) New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams (+14):
    The only question in this one is, will the Saints be able to stay awake?
    PICK: Saints;

    9.) Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): The Panthers are playing better of late. Nonetheless, the Falcons are clearly the better team:
    PICK: Falcons;

    10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) @ Miami Dolphins:
    The Dolphins aren't terribly exciting to watch, but they don't beat themselves, and generally can force a turnover or two:
    PICK: Dolphins;

    11.) Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: Matt Cassel riddled the Raiders in Oakland last season. But then, he was playing with the Patriots. It will be interesting to see whether the release of RB Larry Johnson has any effect on the way the Chiefs play:
    PICK: Chiefs;

    12.) Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Cards blew the 'Hawks out in their first meeting in Seattle. This game should be no different:
    PICK: Cardinals;

    13.) Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are hot, the Eagles are not. They are a different team without RB Brian Westbrook:
    PICK: Chargers;

    14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): How did the Packers manage to lose to the creamsicle-clad Bucs last week? With a win this week and an Eagles' loss, the Cowboys are in position to take firm command in the AFC East:
    PICK: Cowboys;

    15.) Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+11): It appears that Eric Mangini has lost control of his team. A Monday night blow-out could cost him his job:
    PICK: Ravens. 

         Best Bets: Cowboys, Ravens, Saints, Broncos, Jets, Dolphins.

         Thoughts? 


       

     

         
          

          
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    Week 10 large games against the spread:  Jets, Buffalo, Miami, New England, Arizona and Cleveland.  See details elsewhere.

    The power division is right here.  Too many bad team victimizations and good team almosts from this divison.  The Pats are at the top.

    P.S. Last week 4-1 in large games.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jbolted. Show jbolted's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: I don’t like how the Colts have looked the past couple weeks. Yes, they did win, but, the lackluster style does nothing for me. The key to this game IMO is how the 1st & 2nd year players on both squads play. The Colts gave up 301 passing yards to the Texans last week, They look vunerable there in my book. The Pats face a good QB for the first time this year (Flacco almost), so it’s time for McGowan to step up against Dallas Clark. I take the Pats outright. PICK: Patriots;

    2.) Chicago Bears (+3) @ San Francisco  49ers: I like Cutler to continue fading into the past. PICK: 49ers;

    3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ NY Jets: The Jets win, will they cover? A 3 point win over the Chefs is not enough to convince the Jags will cover @NYJ. In JAX, yes; @ NJ, no. PICK: Jets;

    4.) Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): I cant believe this spread is only 3.5. How awesome would that be if the skins pulled off the upset? Wishful thinkin’; PICK: Broncos;

    5.) Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: In my book, the Steelers are the best team in the NFL right now. If Cincy wins this game, I’ll eat my hat PICK: Steelers;

    6.) Buffalo Bills (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Bills and the points. 6.5 is to many for Vince. Buffalo has a decent pass rush & Vince will pass 150 or less. PICK: Bills;

    7.) Detroit Lions (+17) @ Minnesota Vikings: MIN coming off a bye against Detroit? 46-13 PICK: : Vikings;

    8.) New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams (+14): The Rams offense gives me no reason to even remotely consider picking them here. The Rams points per game-0,7,17,0,10,20,6,17 & the high scoring Saints coming to town.

    PICK: Saints;

    9.) Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): In their first meeting CAR amassed 440 yards in a 28-20 loss. I like the panthers @home PICK: Panthers:

    10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) @ Miami Dolphins: Fish win big here PICK: Dolphins;

    11.) Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: From what I’ve seen (3 games) OAK is the better team.
    PICK: Raiders;

    12.) Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: AZ wins by 10 PICK: Cardinals;

    13.) Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers must contain the young Eagle WRs & LeSean McCoy. Never been a big McNabb fan. The SD passing game is much better than Romo’s and Tony Oh-no passed for 282 on these guys. Rivers will get 350. PICK: Chargers;

    14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): The Cowboys are going to win the NFC east. Cutler & Rodgers are the most overrated QBs in football. PICK: Cowboys;

    15.) Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+11): Why would you take CLE? PICK: Ravens. 


    Best Bets: Steelers, Fish, Saints
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from DBAZ22. Show DBAZ22's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    Great analysis Tex, and throw in the those points per game allowed rank these teams 1 and 2 in the NFL.  We can dissect and analyze all the matchups, but the bottom line will be whichever team executes, and makes the least amount of mistakes.  Both QBs will have big days, and watching the replay of the Pats-Dolphins game a few things jump out - great protection against a solid defense, Aiken looks like he might emerge as a decent #3 WR (Brady went his way on a number of drives, and he drew a couple of interference calls) and that will only help Moss, Wes, and Watson.  Last point is they left a lot of points on the table, and I don't see that happening against Indy.  This will be a tight game as the majority of these games have been, and I believe NE will make a few more plays than Indy, and will win by less than a TD.  I also like that NE Coaches had the bye week before Miami, as I am guessing they spent as much time (if not more) preparing for Indy as they did for Miami during that week, and that as your mentioned - coaching - will play into the victory for the Pats.  Fired up here!!!   
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from WatchinginWyoming. Show WatchinginWyoming's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    Concerning the Pats vs. Colts game the factors that I considered one tangible and one intangible are injuries and ole' uncle moe, momentum. Its a nondivison game for the two teams so it's not really all that important in the grand scheme of things, both teams have won their respective divisions barring any unforeseen incidents, so I don't think it'll be a game in which the colts look to face any further injuries. I'm not saying they will take it easy but they realize they have some injury problems they are facing and it won't be the end of the world if they drop this game. That being said, the colts have alot of secondary problems with Hayden and Sanders out. On offense they still are running about 85% with Gonzalez and Brown out. So I think the Patriots are facing the colts at the right time, "its not who you face its when you face them." Furthermore, I believe that the Patriots have Uncle Moe staying at their house while the colts are starting to lose some momentum. The last two games that the colts played against the Texans and 49ers would have been loses had the ball bounced a little differently. Those games were both at home I believe so they are facing some season strain issues right now. NE is ranked 5th in Pass D right now and Indy is ranked 30th or 29th in run offense. In my mind that is a great receipe for the Pats to win. The main concern will be to take away Dallas Clark and force the younger WRs to make big plays, which I expect NE to do, because they always take one thing away from an offense. The Pats need to protect Brady and if they can do that then they should when this game, although it will probably come down to a FG.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from WatchinginWyoming. Show WatchinginWyoming's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"

    I would look at the Titans/Bills game closer. The titans are #2 rushing the ball and the bills are just about last in the NFL for stopping the run. The titans should run all over them, I don't expect Vince Young to have to throw the ball often. The saving grace for the Bills is they are coming off a bye, but I just think they are too beat up at this point to stop a hot team like the Titans.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from underdogg. Show underdogg's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

        a.) Indy TE Dallas Clark vs. Patriots' Safeties Brandon Meriweather and Brandon McGowan: For all the notoriety of the Indy WRs, TE Dallas Clark leads his team in reception with 60. He is Peyton Manning's security blanket. It won't help that Brandon Meriweather will play with some sort of foot injury. If Clark has anything close to a 100 yard game, the Pats are in deep trouble:
    ADVANTAGE: Colts
    UD - I think the pats try to take away both Wayne and Clark.  They will not succeed 100% but don't need to.  It will work enough to force Manning to trust his young wides Collie and Garcon.  Collie is not an issue, but Garcon has dropped a few good balls in the last couple of games.  Manning will also have to rely on Addai and Brown for dump offs. 
     
          b.) Indy DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. Patriots' OTs Sabastien Volmer and Nick Kaczur:
    If Freeney and Mathis are contained, Tom Brady will have plenty of time to dink and dunk the Colts to death. If not, it will lead to sacks, interceptions, and a loss:
    ADVANTAGE: Colts
    UD - The advantage may go to the colts here, but it will not be as if Freeney and Mathis will be in the backfield on every play.  Brady is a cool customer and will withstand the pressure when it comes.  Welker always finds the soft spot in the zone and Brady does not need to be perfectly accurate when throwing to big Randy Moss. 

         c.) Zebra Factor:
    The Patriots can expect the obligatory bogus PI call(s), which always seem to befall them against the Colts. But, they should be able to survive those, provided that they can refrain from holding Freeney, and eliminate those annoying false start penalties. 
    ADVANTAGE: Colts
    UD - Whatever

         d.) Two Minute Drill:
    Though the Patriots' "D" has played better than expected, it still has loads of problems stopping offenses in the last two minutes of each half. Peyton Manning is one of the best at it:
    ADVANTAGE: Colts
    UD - I am a concerned here about the colts.  The last 2 games they have had red zone issues and have settled for Field Goals.  This cannot happen against the pats.  Where the field goals are concerned, Vinateri is down and Stover has filled in nicely.  Lets hope that continues.

        e.) Laurence Maroney vs. Joseph Addai: That title is really shorthand for the Pats OL & DL v. Indy's DL & OL. Colts SS, Bob Sanders, is out for the season. Indy is thin at DT. So, the Pats should be able to run the ball. That said, Joseph Addai has killed the Pats throughout his career. Addai is particularly adepth at running delays, and catching passes out of the backfield:
    ADVANTAGE: Even
    UD - these two backs are the poster children of the fact that teams cannot make great picks 100% of the time.  Neither have lived up to their rookie year production.  The hopes of having Donald Brown back this week are high.

        f.) Redzone Proficiency: This has been a weakness for the Pats for most of the season. The absence of Sanders should make it easier for the Pats to score TDs instead of FGs:
    ADVANTAGE: Colts
    UD - see above.  This is an even spot if not an advantage for the pats, particularly with the DB's down and a big Randy Moss going against  UDFA Lacey.  can you say corner fade.  Advantage Pats.
     

        g.) Coaching: Coach Caldwell has done a marvelous job thus far. But, this is his first "big" game against a team with equivalent talent to his own. BB is the best in the business:
    ADVANTAGE: Patriots.
    UD - no question here. 

    I just don't feel great about the colts this week.  They have struggled against decent but lesser teams than the pats.  Those teams are learning how to win close games, how to finish games.  The pats need no education in this department. 

    The timing of the colts passing game has been off over the last couple of weeks and the pats have had success in the past disrupting that timing.  If however, the pats cannot get a pass rush on Manning, the receivers should find open spots.  Of course,there is the issue of the young receiver not knowing WHERE to find those spots if Wayne and Clark are well covered. 

    Normally I would say the colts D should be ok, even with the losses in the secondary, because they have generally played without these guys most of the season.  But the pats passing game isn't just another passing game.  We are thin at DB and that does not help.  If someone gets hurt we will be in BIG trouble. 

    Good Luck to the Pats
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ewhite1065. Show ewhite1065's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    I normally hate going with the chaulk but there are a few games that look like mis matches. The Browns are going to Brady Quinn at quarterback this week. I can't help but being reminded of the floundering Patriots teams of the Victor Kiam era when we wanted a different QB every week because the team stunk. Unfortunately for Brady Quinn he has to come back against the Ravens. This game has blowout written all over and I'd be shocked if the Ravens can't cover the 10 (thats the line I have right now)points with the browns kicking a few field goals by the end.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from patsfaninsatx. Show patsfaninsatx's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    In Response to Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and:
    [QUOTE]    a.) Indy TE Dallas Clark vs. Patriots' Safeties Brandon Meriweather and Brandon McGowan: For all the notoriety of the Indy WRs, TE Dallas Clark leads his team in reception with 60. He is Peyton Manning's security blanket. It won't help that Brandon Meriweather will play with some sort of foot injury. If Clark has anything close to a 100 yard game, the Pats are in deep trouble: ADVANTAGE: Colts UD - I think the pats try to take away both Wayne and Clark.  They will not succeed 100% but don't need to.  It will work enough to force Manning to trust his young wides Collie and Garcon.  Collie is not an issue, but Garcon has dropped a few good balls in the last couple of games.  Manning will also have to rely on Addai and Brown for dump offs.          b.) Indy DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. Patriots' OTs Sabastien Volmer and Nick Kaczur: If Freeney and Mathis are contained, Tom Brady will have plenty of time to dink and dunk the Colts to death. If not, it will lead to sacks, interceptions, and a loss: ADVANTAGE: Colts UD - The advantage may go to the colts here, but it will not be as if Freeney and Mathis will be in the backfield on every play.  Brady is a cool customer and will withstand the pressure when it comes.  Welker always finds the soft spot in the zone and Brady does not need to be perfectly accurate when throwing to big Randy Moss.       c.) Zebra Factor: The Patriots can expect the obligatory bogus PI call(s), which always seem to befall them against the Colts. But, they should be able to survive those, provided that they can refrain from holding Freeney, and eliminate those annoying false start penalties.  ADVANTAGE: Colts UD - Whatever      d.) Two Minute Drill: Though the Patriots' "D" has played better than expected, it still has loads of problems stopping offenses in the last two minutes of each half. Peyton Manning is one of the best at it: ADVANTAGE: Colts UD - I am a concerned here about the colts.  The last 2 games they have had red zone issues and have settled for Field Goals.  This cannot happen against the pats.  Where the field goals are concerned, Vinateri is down and Stover has filled in nicely.  Lets hope that continues.      e.) Laurence Maroney vs. Joseph Addai: That title is really shorthand for the Pats OL & DL v. Indy's DL & OL. Colts SS, Bob Sanders, is out for the season. Indy is thin at DT. So, the Pats should be able to run the ball. That said, Joseph Addai has killed the Pats throughout his career. Addai is particularly adepth at running delays, and catching passes out of the backfield: ADVANTAGE: Even UD - these two backs are the poster children of the fact that teams cannot make great picks 100% of the time.  Neither have lived up to their rookie year production.  The hopes of having Donald Brown back this week are high.      f.) Redzone Proficiency: This has been a weakness for the Pats for most of the season. The absence of Sanders should make it easier for the Pats to score TDs instead of FGs: ADVANTAGE: Colts UD - see above.  This is an even spot if not an advantage for the pats, particularly with the DB's down and a big Randy Moss going against  UDFA Lacey.  can you say corner fade.  Advantage Pats.       g.) Coaching:  Coach Caldwell has done a marvelous job thus far. But, this is his first "big" game against a team with equivalent talent to his own. BB is the best in the business: ADVANTAGE: Patriots. UD - no question here.  I just don't feel great about the colts this week.  They have struggled against decent but lesser teams than the pats.  Those teams are learning how to win close games, how to finish games.  The pats need no education in this department.  The timing of the colts passing game has been off over the last couple of weeks and the pats have had success in the past disrupting that timing.  If however, the pats cannot get a pass rush on Manning, the receivers should find open spots.  Of course,there is the issue of the young receiver not knowing WHERE to find those spots if Wayne and Clark are well covered.  Normally I would say the colts D should be ok, even with the losses in the secondary, because they have generally played without these guys most of the season.  But the pats passing game isn't just another passing game.  We are thin at DB and that does not help.  If someone gets hurt we will be in BIG trouble.  Good Luck to the Pats
    Posted by underdogg[/QUOTE]

    @UD....Great Response.

    I cant believe it took a Colts fan to recognize this.

    Yes Manning is a great QB and the Colts have a explosive offense, but how do we forget the NE offense.  Its just as explosive. 

    Indy has a young secondary and so does NE, but this is the best secondary NE has had in quite sometime.

    I think our biggest concern should be the pass rush.  I state the obvious when I say if we dont get any pressure on PM then it could be a long day for the secondary.

    On another note, Donald Brown will be back for Indy this sunday. 

    One key weakness that I think gets overlooked is how the pats defend the screen.  I think PM will try to take advantage of that before he starts gunning down the field.  Especially on 3rd downs.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from gmbill. Show gmbill's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    In Response to Week 10 NFL Picks and:
    [QUOTE]    

    As I mentioned in a prior thread, the Pats need to win this game not only to solidify their playoffs prospects, but to change the psyche of the team which, frankly, hasn't been the same since the SB 42 loss to the NY Giants.  

    No question they have a new mindset, but it is a good thing. I think we got so you to winning that we lost touch with the fight it takes to make it happen. Kind of like being on cruise control. Now they have the "eye of the tiger" again, they are hungry and know that they could lose a game at any moment, I think we are much better with today's mind set.    


    a.) Indy TE Dallas Clark vs. Patriots' Safeties Brandon Meriweather and Brandon McGowan: For all the notoriety of the Indy WRs, TE Dallas Clark leads his team in reception with 60. He is Peyton Manning's security blanket. It won't help that Brandon Meriweather will play with some sort of foot injury. If Clark has anything close to a 100 yard game, the Pats are in deep trouble: Even I think Mariweather will be tested and found up to the task. Clark will do well, he is great, but not make the game outcome

    b.) Indy DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. Patriots' OTs Sabastien Volmer and Nick Kaczur: If Freeney and Mathis are contained, Tom Brady will have plenty of time to dink and dunk the Colts to death. If not, it will lead to sacks, interceptions, and a loss: Even Colts Again I think the testing so far this year and Seabass's experience so far will make this a tie, plus Brady will quick release and screens will be in season (no sanders)     

    c.) Zebra Factor: The Patriots can expect the obligatory bogus PI call(s), which always seem to befall them against the Colts. But, they should be able to survive those, provided that they can refrain from holding Freeney, and eliminate those annoying false start penalties.  Bull, I never have bought this and don't now. We had some bad calls in the past but so have others.      

    d.) Two Minute Drill: Though the Patriots' "D" has played better than expected, it still has loads of problems stopping offenses in the last two minutes of each half. Peyton Manning is one of the best at it: ADVANTAGE: Colts out D will be fine, Manning is just that good. Trick is to NOT let him have the ball at the end of the half     

    e.) Laurence Maroney vs. Joseph Addai: That title is really shorthand for the Pats OL & DL v. Indy's DL & OL. Colts SS, Bob Sanders, is out for the season. Indy is thin at DT. So, the Pats should be able to run the ball. That said, Joseph Addai has killed the Pats throughout his career. Addai is particularly adepth at running delays, and catching passes out of the backfield: ADVANTAGE: PATS, we will run the ball and use screen to KEEP Manning off the field. Ball control is the key to this game    

    f.) Redzone Proficiency: This has been a weakness for the Pats for most of the season. The absence of Sanders should make it easier for the Pats to score TDs instead of FGs: Even: Colts I watch the last few Indy games and they have struggled to score. think Addia's 4 q pass and last week came down to field goal miss. We have not been perfect but we have doen enough to win      

    g.) Coaching:  Coach Caldwell has done a marvelous job thus far. But, this is his first "big" game against a team with equivalent talent to his own. BB is the best in the business: EVEN: Patriots. Manning is the Coach and he is good.    

    New England Patriots (+7) not because I am a fan, I feel that both teams can win this game. I believe that because of the loss in the SB, Brady's return and the new players, this team is ready to make a big move.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from gmbill. Show gmbill's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    2.) Chicago Bears (+3) @ San Francisco  49ers: The 49ers have lost two close games in a row, @ Indy, and home against Vince Young and the revitalized Titans. They'll get this one for their coach:
    Bears: by 3 They are better than their losses
    3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ NY Jets: The Jets will rebound this week after seriously damaging their season by throwing away what should have been an easy win over the Miami Dolphins:
    PICK: Jaguars by 7, Jets are that bad
    4.) Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins (+3.5): Redskins are just what the doctor ordered to get the Broncos back on the right track:
    PICK: Broncos; Agree

    5.) Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers looked like the best team in the NFL last Monday night, when they pounded the Broncos in Denver. With two wins over the Ravens and one over the Steelers, the Bengals appear to be the real deal. But, Cincy lost to the Broncos at home, while the Steelers dominated them. 
    Bengals show that the Steelers ain't all that. (Good but noit that good) Big telst for the Bengals to make a stand

    6.) Buffalo Bills (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans:
    Too bad that the stubborn Jeff Fisher was forced by Titans' owner, Bud Adams, to replace the staid Kerry Collins with the mobile, exciting Vince Young.
    PICK: Titans by 3 Vince stays on a roll
    7.) Detroit Lions (+17) @ Minnesota Vikings: The Lions have been given the Rodney Dangerfield treatment by the oddsmakers in this one. This 17 point spread is the largest that I can remember, thus far this season. Let me heap even more disrespect on the Lions:
    PICK: : Vikings; This is one of thise games Brett could blow, but will not 

    8.) New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams (+14):
    The only question in this one is, will the Saints be able to stay awake?
    PICK: Saints; Saints get a bye week

    9.) Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): The Panthers are playing better of late. Nonetheless, the Falcons are clearly the better team:
    PICK: Pathers by 3

    10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) @ Miami Dolphins:
    The Dolphins aren't terribly exciting to watch, but they don't beat themselves, and generally can force a turnover or two:
    PICK: Dolphins; big win for Dolphins
    11.) Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: Matt Cassel riddled the Raiders in Oakland last season. But then, he was playing with the Patriots. It will be interesting to see whether the release of RB Larry Johnson has any effect on the way the Chiefs play:
    PICK: Chiefs;Who cares

    12.) Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Cards blew the 'Hawks out in their first meeting in Seattle. This game should be no different:
    PICK: Cardinals;

    13.) Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are hot, the Eagles are not. They are a different team without RB Brian Westbrook:
    PICK: Eagles - Chargers are done
    14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): How did the Packers manage to lose to the creamsicle-clad Bucs last week? With a win this week and an Eagles' loss, the Cowboys are in position to take firm command in the AFC East:
    PICK: Packers _ Boys get a beat down
    15.) Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+11): It appears that Eric Mangini has lost control of his team. A Monday night blow-out could cost him his job:
    PICK: Ravens. Because they are really pissed about last weeks loss and it's Brady and the Browns..(the other Brady) 

         Best Bets:  Ravens, Saints, Broncos,  Dolphins.

         Thoughts? 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Casportsfan. Show Casportsfan's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    Excellent and objective.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from wtfmaroney. Show wtfmaroney's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    Go Pats! our pass D is better and i think we mite force atleast 2 turnovers wich will give us the win, buuuuuuuuttttt PM is great under pressure unless its wilfork's 400lbs on top of him, if we can get mmore then 3 sacks it will help us keep the win
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

         Heres' some thoughts on the Pats/Colts from Indy: http://blogs.indystar.com/philb/
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

         Heres' another interesting article on the Pats/Colts showdown: http://www.indystar.com/article/20091113/SPORTS15/911130332/1058/SPORTS03/The-real-showdown?-It-s-Manning-vs.-Belichick
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

         Here are some cold, hard football facts on the Pats and Colts: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2960_A_Patriots-Colts_cornucopia.html
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

         Good news for tthe Pats on the injury front, as Koppen, Edelman, Morris, and Matt Light all returned to practice: http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/rap_sheet/index.php/2009/11/13/get-well-day-for-patriots-light-morris-edelman-koppens-and-others-return/#more-4602.

         BB and the Pats know how huge the Indy game is for them. Its' all hands on deck, this Sunday.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatFanInBA2. Show PatFanInBA2's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    In Response to Week 10 NFL Picks and:
    [QUOTE]     The Week 10 rumble with the Colts in Indy represents the biggest regular season game that the Pats will play in, in 2009. As I mentioned in a prior thread, the Pats need to win this game not only to solidify their playoffs prospects, but to change the psyche of the team which, frankly, hasn't been the same since the SB 42 loss to the NY Giants.      Both teams enter this game on winning streaks, have excellent offenses, but somewhat questionable defenses. But, you wouldn't know that from looking at the "points allowed statistic, in which the Colts have allowed roughly 15 points per game, and the Pats roughly 16 per game.       As you might have guessed, this is my "Game of the Week". Because it is such a huge game, I'll spend a bit more time than normal in analyzing this match-up:      I .) Key Match-ups:        a.) Indy TE Dallas Clark vs. Patriots' Safeties Brandon Meriweather and Brandon McGowan: For all the notoriety of the Indy WRs, TE Dallas Clark leads his team in reception with 60. He is Peyton Manning's security blanket. It won't help that Brandon Meriweather will play with some sort of foot injury. If Clark has anything close to a 100 yard game, the Pats are in deep trouble: ADVANTAGE: Colts         b.) Indy DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. Patriots' OTs Sabastien Volmer and Nick Kaczur: If Freeney and Mathis are contained, Tom Brady will have plenty of time to dink and dunk the Colts to death. If not, it will lead to sacks, interceptions, and a loss: ADVANTAGE: Colts      c.) Zebra Factor: The Patriots can expect the obligatory bogus PI call(s), which always seem to befall them against the Colts. But, they should be able to survive those, provided that they can refrain from holding Freeney, and eliminate those annoying false start penalties.  ADVANTAGE: Colts      d.) Two Minute Drill: Though the Patriots' "D" has played better than expected, it still has loads of problems stopping offenses in the last two minutes of each half. Peyton Manning is one of the best at it: ADVANTAGE: Colts      e.) Laurence Maroney vs. Joseph Addai: That title is really shorthand for the Pats OL & DL v. Indy's DL & OL. Colts SS, Bob Sanders, is out for the season. Indy is thin at DT. So, the Pats should be able to run the ball. That said, Joseph Addai has killed the Pats throughout his career. Addai is particularly adepth at running delays, and catching passes out of the backfield: ADVANTAGE: Even      f.) Redzone Proficiency: This has been a weakness for the Pats for most of the season. The absence of Sanders should make it easier for the Pats to score TDs instead of FGs: ADVANTAGE: Colts       g.) Coaching:  Coach Caldwell has done a marvelous job thus far. But, this is his first "big" game against a team with equivalent talent to his own. BB is the best in the business: ADVANTAGE: Patriots.      Here are my picks:  1.) New England Patriots (+3) @ Indianapolis Colts: If you look above at my match-ups, you'll notice that the Colts hold a 5-1-1 advantage. There was no mention of Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, since they basically cancel each other out.      So...how can the Patriots win this game? They can win because they have the games' best coach calling the shots for them. If the Patriots can flawlessly execute his game plan, they'll win.       The other thing that the Pats have going for them is that the Colts haven't played all that well in their last two games...wins at home against the 49ers and Texans.        Since 2005, Indy has pretty much dominated this match-up. The Pats are good, but seem to be a cut below elite status. Hope they prove me wrong: PICK: Colts; 2.) Chicago Bears (+3) @ San Francisco  49ers:  The 49ers have lost two close games in a row, @ Indy, and home against Vince Young and the revitalized Titans. They'll get this one for their coach: PICK: 49ers; 3.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) @ NY Jets: The Jets will rebound this week after seriously damaging their season by throwing away what should have been an easy win over the Miami Dolphins: PICK: Jets; 4.) Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins (+3.5):  Redskins are just what the doctor ordered to get the Broncos back on the right track: PICK: Broncos; 5.) Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers looked like the best team in the NFL last Monday night, when they pounded the Broncos in Denver. With two wins over the Ravens and one over the Steelers, the Bengals appear to be the real deal. But, Cincy lost to the Broncos at home, while the Steelers dominated them.  PICK: Steelers; 6.) Buffalo Bills (+6.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Too bad that the stubborn Jeff Fisher was forced by Titans' owner, Bud Adams, to replace the staid Kerry Collins with the mobile, exciting Vince Young. PICK: Titans; 7.) Detroit Lions (+17) @ Minnesota Vikings: The Lions have been given the Rodney Dangerfield treatment by the oddsmakers in this one. This 17 point spread is the largest that I can remember, thus far this season. Let me heap even more disrespect on the Lions: PICK: : Vikings; 8.) New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams (+14): The only question in this one is, will the Saints be able to stay awake? PICK: Saints; 9.) Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5):  The Panthers are playing better of late. Nonetheless, the Falcons are clearly the better team: PICK: Falcons; 10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) @ Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins aren't terribly exciting to watch, but they don't beat themselves, and generally can force a turnover or two: PICK: Dolphins; 11.) Kansas City Chiefs (+2) @ Oakland Raiders: Matt Cassel riddled the Raiders in Oakland last season. But then, he was playing with the Patriots. It will be interesting to see whether the release of RB Larry Johnson has any effect on the way the Chiefs play: PICK: Chiefs; 12.) Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Cards blew the 'Hawks out in their first meeting in Seattle. This game should be no different: PICK: Cardinals; 13.) Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are hot, the Eagles are not. They are a different team without RB Brian Westbrook: PICK: Chargers; 14.) Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): How did the Packers manage to lose to the creamsicle-clad Bucs last week? With a win this week and an Eagles' loss, the Cowboys are in position to take firm command in the AFC East: PICK: Cowboys; 15.) Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+11): It appears that Eric Mangini has lost control of his team. A Monday night blow-out could cost him his job: PICK: Ravens.        Best Bets: Cowboys, Ravens, Saints, Broncos, Jets, Dolphins.      Thoughts?                           
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    Hi Tex:

    Thanks for the analysis and the post. With respect to us vs. Colts, I cannot argue on the 5:1 advantage for the colts, but are all those matchups equal in importance? 

    One of the big intangibles is that Colts are playing at home and I agree it looks like Colts will pull this one out. I HOPE that I am wrong !!


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatFanInBA2. Show PatFanInBA2's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    Hey Tex:

    What was your analysis/prediction was for last year's match up between the two teams?

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    In Response to Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Week 10 NFL Picks and : Hi Tex: Thanks for the analysis and the post. With respect to us vs. Colts, I cannot argue on the 5:1 advantage for the colts, but are all those matchups equal in importance?

    RESPONSE: Good point. No, they are not. Having BB as their coach is a huge edge for the Pats. The biggest disadvantages that the Pats must overcome will be Indy DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis vs. OTs Sabastien Volmer/Matt Light and Nick Kaczur. If Indy wins this match-up as expected, Tom Brady will be harried all night...meaning inefficiency on offens, and turnovers. The Pats must contain Freeney and Mathis if they hope to win. 

      One of the big intangibles is that Colts are playing at home and I agree it looks like Colts will pull this one out.
     
    RESPONSE: Agreed...and the second major disadvantage That I was referring to will be the officiating, which will almost certainly be pro-Indy. In some respects, that goes hand in hand with playing at home.

    I HOPE that I am wrong !!

    RESPONSE: Amen. In my estimation, this is a game that the Pats must have.
    Posted by PatFanInBA2[/QUOTE]

         
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    Late edition:  3:45 pm Sunday power rankings including early games

     

    1  ne  14.8  (last wk. 1)

    2  az  12.5  (last wk. 5)

    3  ind  12.2  (last wk. 6)

    4  cin  11.2  (last wk. 11)

    5  mia  11.2  (last wk. 2)

    6  dal  11.1  (last wk. 10)

    7  no  11.0  (last wk. 4)

    8  pit  10.8  (last wk. 9)

    9  phi  10.7  (last wk. 12)

    10  min  10.6  (last wk. 8)

    11  atl  10.5  (last wk. 7)

    12  hou  10.1  (last wk. 13)

    13  nyj  9.5  (last wk. 3)

    14  gb  9.4  (last wk. 14)

    15  car  9.1  (last wk. 16)

    16  bal  8.4  (last wk. 18)

    17  den  8.3  (last wk. 15)

    18  nyg  8.1  (last wk. 19)

    19  buf  7.4  (last wk. 17)

    20  sd  7.4  (last wk. 20)

    21  sf  6.9  (last wk. 21)

    22  jac  5.7  (last wk. 28)

    23  sea  5.5  (last wk. 23)

    24  chi  5.4  (last wk. 22)

    25  was  4.9  (last wk. 24)

    26  ten  4.3  (last wk. 25)

    27  tb  4.3  (last wk. 26)

    28  stl  3.8  (last wk. 30)

    29  det  3.7  (last wk. 29)

    30  cle  3.1  (last wk. 27)

    31  kc  2.6  (last wk. 31)

    32  oak  1.3  (last wk. 32)

     

    The rest of the AFC East just turned into a bunch of wussies this Sunday.  By implication, this lowers my spreadsheet’s opinion of New England, who is down from 2.8 points to a 0.9 point favorite to win tonight.  Add maybe 3 extra points on the Patriots side for the second Indy cornerback being out, and for Julian Edelman, Matt Light and Dan Koppen all making the trip to Indy.  Being a 4 point favorite is still kind of a nail biter.  I don't agree at all with Vegas on this one, but we'll see.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from touchdownpats. Show touchdownpats's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    And you picked the J-E-T-S!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

         Might the Pats surprise the Colts by employing the "wildcat"? They'll have Isaiah Stanback and Julian Edelman ready to go tonight. This could bear watching.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    In Response to Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and:
    [QUOTE]And you picked the J-E-T-S!
    Posted by touchdownpats[/QUOTE]
    My spreadsheet picked the Jets versus the spread.  Just as bad, it liked Miami.  I can't think of a way to punish a spreadsheet. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat3. Show TexasPat3's posts

    Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and

    In Response to Re: Week 10 NFL Picks and:
    [QUOTE]And you picked the J-E-T-S!
    Posted by touchdownpats[/QUOTE]

         Yeah...and I picked the Colts to beat the Pats. Hope I'm wrong on that one, too.
     

Share