Re: Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"
posted at 11/25/2009 6:46 PM EST
In Response to Week 12 NFL Picks and "Game of the Week"
[QUOTE] The "Game of the Week" in week 12 is of course The Patriots @ New Orleans Saints. Though it won't top the Indy game in significance, it represents the last regular season chance for the Patriots to show the football world that they are indeed an elite team...and a prime threat to win a SB. Due to the significance of the upcoming Saints game, as I did with the Indy game, I will break down what I believe to be the key match-ups in this game: 1.) Saints' DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant v. Pats' OTs: The Saints have much in common with our good bud, the Indianapolis Colts, on both offense and defense. like Indy, the Saints boast two good DEs, in Will Smith and Charles Grant...who have combined for 13 sacks this season. The pressure they apply on pass plays is one of the main reasons why the Saints' "D" has intercepted 20 passes, 14 fumble recoveries, and scored 7 TDs, thus far this season. Nick Kaczur got abused in Indy by Robert Mathis. He must perform better Monday night. ADVANTAGE: Saints; 2.) Saints Secondary V. Tom Brady: If the Pats are able to contain the Saints' DEs, look for Tom Brady to have a field day against a bruised up Saints' secondary. Their group is led by ball-hawking safety Darren Sharper, who already has amassed 7 interceptions. But, the Saints starting CBs, Jabari Greer (groin) and Tracy Porter (knee), will likely miss this game due to injury. Furthermore, their nickel back, ex-Patriot Randal Gay, also may miss Monday's battle due to a hamstring injury. Rookie CB, and Saints' #1 pick Malcolm Jenkins must step-up big time at CB. ADVATAGE: Patriots; 3.) Saints Receivers v. Pats' Secondary: WR Marques Colston is the Saints' answer to Randy Moss. The Pats' secondary must not allow Colston to get behind them. The other receiver demanding attention is slot-receiver Lance Moore (the Saints' Wes Welker). When healthy, Moore made the Saints' offense purr. The recent offensive drop-off is a direct result of Moore suffering an ankle injury. Though he has missed three straight games, I wouldn't be surprised to see him suit up Monday: ADVANTAGE: Saints ; 4.) The Running Games: The Saints have been somewhat vulnerable against the run. Though thats' not what the Patriots do best, Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk should be able to easily combine for over 100 yards rushing. Reggie Bush is dinged up, but should play. But, Bush is more of a receiving than a running threat in the Saints' offense. RB Pierre Thomas is having a Joseph Addai type impact on the Saints' offense: ADVANTAGE: Saints; 5.) Coaches: Though Sean Payton has done a terrific job with the Saints offense, and his DC, Mike Williams, has transformed a former lethargic "D" into a ball-hawking, aggressive lot, BB remains the best coach in the game: ADVANTAGE: Patriots; That said, here are my picks: 1.) New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: As I mentioned above, these Saints are similar to the current Indianapolis Colts on defense, and the 2007 Patriots on offense. They are averaging nearly 37 points per game. Beating them will require a turnover free, rousing 60 minute performance, on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, the Patriots' have shown a tendency to play 48 minute games, with their defense unable to stop opposing offenses in the closing minutes of games. They have also had redzone problems, where too many times they settle for FGs, instead on racking up TDs. They'll need to put up at least 40 points to hang the first loss of the season on these Saints. Thats' alot to ask, especially on the road. Nonetheless, I sense a lingering anger over the Indy loss...which might just be enough to get the Pats over the hump: PICK: Patriots; 2.) Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+10.5): The Lions have major problems, as they may be without rookie QB Matthew Stafford, and star WR Calvin Johnson in this one. If thats' the case, they won't be able to take advantage of an injury riddled Packers' secondary: PICK: Packers; 3.) NY Giants @ Denver Broncos (+6.5): Tough game to pick, as both teams are playing lousy. But, the wheels appear to have completely come off in Denver: PICK: Giants; 4.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+3.5): I was actually prepared to pick the Texans to pull the upset, until I saw the Texans blow another one last Monday night. Somehow, someway, you just know that the Colts are going to find a way, and that the Texans will do what they do best...choke: PICK: Colts; 5.) Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Despite their 7-3 record, as the Bengals showed last week in losing to the Raiders, they are not an elite team. Take the points: PICK: Browns; 6.) Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: How many picks will Jay Cutler throw this week? Bears' coach Lovie Smith isn't getting much love from Chicago fans, or his players: PICK: Vikings; 7.) Washington Redskins (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Lately, the 'Skins have shown a tendency to be able to hang around. The Westbrook-less Eagles are not the same team without him: PICK: Redskins; 8.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): The 'Fins must win this one to keep their playoff hopes alive. A 'Fins win, and a Pats' loss at New Orleans, sets up an AFC East showdown between the then 7-4 Pats, and the 6-5 Dolphins, for divisional supremacy: PICK: Dolphins; 9.) Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (PK): Kurt Warner is still shaking off the cobwebs after getting dinged in the head last week. The Titans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, behind QB Vince Young: PICK: Titans; 10.) Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3): Both teams are snake-bit by injuries. So, lets go with the home team: PICK: Rams; 11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: This is a must win game for the free-falling Falcons: PICK: Falcons; 12.) Carolina Panthers (+3) @ NY Jets: The Jets are in a tailspin. This will be a 1960's throwback game, with 3 yards and a cloud of astro-resin: PICK: Panthers; 13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers: Somehow, someway, the Jaguars continue to find ways to win: PICK: Jaguars; 14.) Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ San Diego Chargers: Having resurrected from the dead, the Chargers now appear to have a great shot at the second seed in the AFC: PICK: Chargers; 15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens: Though I realize that the Steelers have had their problems of late, but making them Dogs against the overrated Ravens seems silly: PICK: Steelers; 16.) Oakland Raiders (+13.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Tough game to pick due to the huge spread. The Cowboys looked awful last week in barely getting by the Redskins...while the Raiders are coming off their best game of the season, a 20-17 upset win over the Bengals. Dallas has scored just 14 points in its' last two games. Still, these are the Raiders: PICK: Cowboys. BEST BETS: Steelers, Chargers, Titans, and Dolphins. Thoughts?
Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]
1.) New England Patriots (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: Nobody beats the Saints on the bayou in the regular season, although if anybody on New Orleans home game opponent list will do it, it’ll be the Pats. Drew Brees was traded from SD because of his propensity to get happy feet and not protect the ball in big games. The Pats are a top 5 team IMO, right at 5 actually. Not enough against #2 PICK: Saints;
2.) Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+10.5): The Pack should cover this one. The key against GB is pass rush. Outside of Julian Peterson, DET has no pass rush though PICK: Packers;
3.) NY Giants @ Denver Broncos (+6.5): Jints by 10, Josh needs to shut up with opposing players instead inspiring them. PICK: Giants;
4.) Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (+3.5): Have to be able to score when playing the Colts, therefore……….
5.) Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Mangini is a human stress ball PICK: Bengals;
6.) Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: Cutler is the most overrated QB in the NFL over the past 20 years. The boo’s keep getting louder in Chicago PICK: Vikings;
7.) Washington Redskins (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Agreed TEX, I’ll take the skins as well.
8.) Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+3): Last season’s AFC EAST champs are not packing it in. Ricky gets over a buck in a win.
9.) Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (PK): Steak ends PICK: Cards;
10.) Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3): home team PICK: Rams;
11.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12.5) @ Atlanta Falcons: Too many points PICK: Bucs;
12.) Carolina Panthers (+3) @ NY Jets: Panthers are better then they appear, the Jets are worse than they appear PICK: Panthers;
13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers: JAX out west, nope!
14.) Kansas City Chiefs (+13.5) @ San Diego Chargers: Best team in the NFL right now continues to roll. PICK: Chargers;
15.) Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens: Steelers playing mad, @home, needing a win? PICK: Steelers;
16.) Oakland Raiders (+13.5) @ Dallas Cowboys: Call me crazy… but I think the Raiders will cover this one………………..barely PICK: Raiders.
BEST BETS:Steelers, Cards