Week 16 Power Ratings

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Week 16 Power Ratings

    In Response to Week 14 Symmetrical Game Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]1           ne             13.5             (last wk. 2)

    2           no             13.3             (last wk. 1)

    3           ind             12.9             (last wk. 3)

    4           phi             12.3             (last wk. 4) 

    . . .
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

     

    In Response to Re: Week 14 Symmetrical Game Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]As I've said before Paul_K, there is only one way to defend your power ranking system; does it predict outright wins (ignoring the spread) better than the other ranking systems.  There is no way you can argue otherwise any system that places the Pats on top; especially above two undefeated teams.  Well, you can argue it, but nobody will accept it.  osted by carawaydj[/QUOTE]

     

    In Response to Re: Week 14 Symmetrical Game Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]It's amazing that you can post this with your straight jacket on.  You are absolutely NUTS.
    Posted by harleyroadking103[/QUOTE]

     

    In Response to Re: Week 14 Symmetrical Game Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]Proof that numbers can be manipulated to see what you want.
    Posted by MarcW1[/QUOTE]

     

    Dallas 24, New Orleans 17

     

     

    W E L L ,   E X C U U U U U S E   M E E E E E ! !
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ewhite1065. Show ewhite1065's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    You've done well Paul..Hurry up with the week 16 Power Rankings. I think I'm interested in the symmetrical rankings at this point.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from NickC1188. Show NickC1188's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    Yes, your numbers prove EVERYTHING!!!!!!

    Give it up already

    If your #'s proved jacksh*t, the Pats should be undefeated or close to it.

    5 losses are far too many to be an anomaly.

    I'll only believe it if the Pats win the Super Bowl.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from carawaydj. Show carawaydj's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    In Response to Week 16 Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Week 14 Symmetrical Game Power Ratings :   In Response to Re: Week 14 Symmetrical Game Power Ratings :   In Response to Re: Week 14 Symmetrical Game Power Ratings :   In Response to Re: Week 14 Symmetrical Game Power Ratings :   Dallas 24, New Orleans 17     W E L L ,    E X C U U U U U S E    M E E E E E ! !
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    I neither mock nor support your system.  My stance has been simple; prove your system with win predictions.  Power rankings are becoming all the rage lately.  Unless there is a metric to judge their accuracy, I consider them purely for entertainment value only.

    The last line went over my head.  Why did you include the Dallas New Orleans game?  Not being sarcastic.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    Paul_k..  when you include 4th qtr stats, how does this look?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 16 Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE] The last line went over my head. Why did you include the Dallas New Orleans game?  Not being sarcastic.
    Posted by carawaydj[/QUOTE]

    For the utes on this board, “Well excuuse mee!” is an old Steve Martin bit directed at a lights guy who ticks him off.  Trolls didn't like my stats because the numbers slightly called out New Orleans and Indy.

    These are my Sunday early power ratings before the Sunday and Monday night games.  Indy squeaked out a moderately nervous victory.  Norleans didn’t play offense for 3 quarters, didn’t play defense for 3 quarters and so deserved to risk losing at the end.

    1          ne            13.5            (last wk. 1)

    2          phi            13.1            (last wk. 4)

    3          no            12.4            (last wk. 2)

    4          ind            12.2            (last wk. 3)

    5          min            11.5            (last wk. 7)

    6          bal            11.4            (last wk. 8)

    7          sd            11.4            (last wk. 5)

    8          gb            11.1            (last wk. 9)

    9          nyj            10.9            (last wk. 6)

    10        dal            10.1            (last wk. 13)

    11        cin            9.4            (last wk. 14)

    12        mia            9.1            (last wk. 10)

    13        az            9.0            (last wk. 11)

    14        nyg            8.7            (last wk. 15)

    15        was            8.4            (last wk. 18)

    16        ten            8.4            (last wk. 16)

    17        hou            8.1            (last wk. 12)

    18        pit            7.8            (last wk. 21)

    19        car            7.7            (last wk. 20)

    20        atl            7.7            (last wk. 22)

    21        buf            7.5            (last wk. 17)

    22        sf            7.4            (last wk. 19)

    23        den            6.5            (last wk. 23)

    24        jac            6.1            (last wk. 24)

    25        cle            5.0            (last wk. 27)

    26        kc            4.9            (last wk. 25)

    27        tb            4.9            (last wk. 28)

    28        chi            4.2            (last wk. 26)

    29        oak            3.2            (last wk. 30)

    30        sea            2.3            (last wk. 29)

    31        det            1.6            (last wk. 31)

    32        stl            0.4            (last wk. 32)

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from NickC1188. Show NickC1188's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    Wait, you make b*llsh*t numbers that had Miami ranked #3 as recently as a couple weeks ago and you want to be condescending to us???!!!  Get out!  I would have thought that you would have adjusted your system somehow, but to stick to it and not accept criticism for it despite its OBVIOUS flaws is absurd.

    At some point, you have to realize that the Colts are winning the quarter that matters the most, by enough points, to be 14-0.

    That your system has them ranked 4th means that you've predicted nothing.  If they lose next week, they'll still be the best team in the league and you'll have still been wrong 14 out of 15 times.  No weakness was revealed by your system, just like no weakness was proven in the Saints by losing to a Cowboys team that you had ranked 4 spots below them.

    I know this for sure: you've been wrong 5 out of 14 times this year.  By your Enron-level book-cooking, the Patriots should at least be 12-2.  A team with five losses should not be the top-ranked team in any system for any reason.

    Did you include the following Patriot weaknesses in your numbers?
    -> red zone offense
    -> red zone defense
    -> 3rd down defense

    And do your numbers break down each quarter individually?  Because breaking the composite down by quarter would reveal the Patriots' inability to perform in the second half and reveal a discrepancy between narrow-moderate first half advantages and extreme second half disadvantages that only get worse in the fourth quarter.  It would show a Colts team that trails moderately for three quarters and destroys teams in the fourth quarter, which would also reveal a large part of why they're 14-0.

    I'm not one to flip out on people here regularly (only once every once in a while, ticking time bomb style), but after 5 or 6 weeks of seeing the Pats ranked far higher than they really ought to be and then seeing you call us utes for happening to wonder how a 9-5 team ranks #1, I can't help but ask the hard questions.

    THE GAME IS FOUR QUARTERS.   THAT'S WHY ON REAL FOOTBALL TEAMS LIKE THE OLD ROCHESTER BULLDOGS, THE BISHOP STANG SPARTANS, AND THE IONA COLLEGE GAELS THAT I PLAYD FOR, WE PUT FOUR FINGERS IN THE AIR AT THE START OF THE FOURTH QUARTER.  BECAUSE IT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT QUARTER IN THE GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 16 Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]Wait, you make b*llsh*t numbers that had Miami ranked #3 as recently as a couple weeks ago and you want to be condescending to us???!!! 
    Posted by NickC1188[/QUOTE]

    The AFC East as a division has to play the AFC South, which as a division is 14 games over .500.  As a division, the AFC East has played everybody else tough.  It's a best fit.

    P.S. A week ago I switched things around to cover most of the fourth quarter.  It helped Indy and N.O. some, but I can't help it that both Indy and New Orleans live dangerously half the time lately, and that shows up in the numbers.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    Final for the week, including monday night.  These last two games were both unexpected blowouts, the kind that shake up everyone's numbers just a bit.

    1          ne            13.8            (last wk. 1)

    2          phi            13.2            (last wk. 4)

    3          no            12.6            (last wk. 2)

    4          ind            12.2            (last wk. 3)

    5          sd            11.5            (last wk. 5)

    6          bal            11.2            (last wk. 8)

    7          nyj            11.1            (last wk. 6)

    8          gb            10.9            (last wk. 9)

    9          nyg            10.4            (last wk. 15)

    10        min            10.4            (last wk. 7)

    11        dal            10.3            (last wk. 13)

    12        mia            9.4            (last wk. 10)

    13        cin            9.1            (last wk. 14)

    14        az            8.9            (last wk. 11)

    15        car            8.8            (last wk. 20)

    16        ten            8.4            (last wk. 16)

    17        hou            8.1            (last wk. 12)

    18        atl            8.0            (last wk. 22)

    19        buf            7.7            (last wk. 17)

    20        pit            7.6            (last wk. 21)

    21        sf            7.3            (last wk. 19)

    22        was            6.9            (last wk. 18)

    23        den            6.5            (last wk. 23)

    24        jac            6.1            (last wk. 24)

    25        tb            5.1            (last wk. 28)

    26        kc            4.9            (last wk. 25)

    27        cle            4.9            (last wk. 27)

    28        chi            4.0            (last wk. 26)

    29        oak            3.1            (last wk. 30)

    30        sea            2.2            (last wk. 29)

    31        det            1.3            (last wk. 31)

    32        stl            0.2            (last wk. 32)
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from underdoggg. Show underdoggg's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    Somehow, I have a sense that NE's game against TN is stacking these #'s, that and the fact that NE this year has been a strong starter and weak finisher.  
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 16 Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]Somehow, I have a sense that NE's game against TN is stacking these #'s, that and the fact that NE this year has been a strong starter and weak finisher.  
    Posted by underdoggg[/QUOTE]
    He doesn't count the 4th quarter, so it kind of rewards bad 4th QTR teams and hurts good 4th Qtr teams.  It has some flaws
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 16 Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Week 16 Power Ratings : He doesn't count the 4th quarter, so it kind of rewards bad 4th QTR teams and hurts good 4th Qtr teams.  It has some flaws
    Posted by shenanigan[/QUOTE]
    Actually, my revised 4th quarter system which I've been using for maybe 2 weeks now, counts most of the fourth quarter too, except when games reach the asymmetrical stage.  My dividing line is, the losing team has to be within 8 points (one score) with 5 minutes left, within two 8 point scores with 10 minutes left, and within three 8 point scores with 15 minutes left.  With the revision I have now dropped time of possession as a useful substitute for fourth quarter scoring, as the fourth quarter is pretty well covered, except for the blowout situations which are pointedly not covered.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from underdoggg. Show underdoggg's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    Paul, I get your system, and it may be generally correct.  I imagine that it separates good teams from bad teams, but records do that too.  

    You can make an assumption that a team ahead by 9 points with 5 minutes left is "out of the game", but that could not be further from the truth.  If the team behind has the ball at the opposition's 5 yd line at 4:45 and scores on the next play, they are now down by 2 (assuming they get the xp).  Now they have the option of an onside kick or kicking away if they have confidence in their D.  Most teams with 4:30 would kick away, imo.  If the D holds to a 3 and they maintain their TO's, its very possible they get the ball back with more than 2 minutes left and only need to be in FG range to win the game. 

    This is not an unlikely scenario, but your system will not account for it. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from DFree93HOF. Show DFree93HOF's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    In Response to Re: Week 16 Power Ratings:
    [QUOTE]Paul, I get your system, and it may be generally correct.  I imagine that it separates good teams from bad teams, but records do that too.   You can make an assumption that a team ahead by 9 points with 5 minutes left is "out of the game", but that could not be further from the truth.  If the team behind has the ball at the opposition's 5 yd line at 4:45 and scores on the next play, they are now down by 2 (assuming they get the xp).  Now they have the option of an onside kick or kicking away if they have confidence in their D.  Most teams with 4:30 would kick away, imo.  If the D holds to a 3 and they maintain their TO's, its very possible they get the ball back with more than 2 minutes left and only need to be in FG range to win the game.  This is not an unlikely scenario, but your system will not account for it. 
    Posted by underdoggg[/QUOTE]

    What it doesn't account for is back and forth, shoot-out kind of games.  Look at the Pitt - GB game.  That was back and forth and literally came down to the last second.  It's a dumb ranking system.  Simple as that. You can't have a ranking system that doesn't take the whole game into account.  Paul, what about overtime?  Does that count?  It's still part of the game but it goes beyond 4 qtrs.  If it goes to OT does that mean that the team winning after the 3rd qtr wins in your rankings even if they don't win the game?  Your formula is junk.  It's the dumbest system I've ever seen.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from harleyroadking103. Show harleyroadking103's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings

    Your #1 team was out gained in total yards and time of possession to your #21 and your #1 team barely beat your #21 team. Your #1 team scored only 3 point in the second half and had less than 50 total yards in the second half.

    I will pull no punches YOUR system is asinine and I have some mistletoe for you.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Trink5. Show Trink5's posts

    Re: Week 16 Power Ratings


    Paul: I have my own ranking system. I don't count the voters of America. 
    Therefore I am the President of the United States. 
     

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