Can't wait any longer, Tex.  The first game's in two hours.

San Francisco simply didn'™t want to be number one this week.  Green Bay was robbed of the chance, but they also put themselves in a position to not be number one.  Baltimore tried its level best to lose at home.  Who's left?

New England lost to a quality team, on the road, in a historically partisan stadium, by 1 point.  In my numbers they were supposed to lose by 5.2 points.  So their power rating had to be pushed up.  New England went up even more because Arizona went out and beat somebody else.  In my power rating system when you lose to a bunny and they prove elsewhere that they'™re not really a bunny anymore, that removes some of the sting.  Also, Tennessee went out and beat Detroit, so Tennessee'™s rise also floats New England.  It'™s not just who you beat or by how much, it'™s how the other teams fit into the big puzzle.

I give Houston absolute credit for walloping Denver by 20 points before Denver kind of sort of tried to get back in the game (and starting from 20 points back with no time, Denver lost oddly enough).  Houston just didn'™t get that much help from former opponents Jacksonville and Miami this week. 

So, in the end, 1-2 New England, Houston and Atlanta are in a virtual tie for the top at the end of week 3.  Those are the power numbers for next week's games.  If you want power ratings that exclusively reflect each team's previous wins and losses, go read the NFL standings.

1   ne   13.7   (last wk. 4)

2   hou   13.6   (last wk. 3)

3   atl   13.5   (last wk. 6)

4   sf   13.0   (last wk. 1)

5   gb   12.6   (last wk. 2)

6   nyg   10.8   (last wk. 14)

7   bal   10.8   (last wk. 5)

8   dal   9.8   (last wk. 10)

9   sd   9.2   (last wk. 7)

10   sea   9.1   (last wk. 12)

11   nyj   9.0   (last wk. 16)

12   cin   8.8   (last wk. 17)

13   no   8.8   (last wk. 8)

14   pit   8.4   (last wk. 9)

15   min   8.0   (last wk. 20)

16   den   7.2   (last wk. 11)

17   det   7.1   (last wk. 13)

18   jac   7.1   (last wk. 23)

19   chi   7.0   (last wk. 19)

20   kc   6.9   (last wk. 29)

21   buf   6.8   (last wk. 24)

22   az   6.6   (last wk. 27)

23   car   6.4   (last wk. 15)

24   ten   6.1   (last wk. 28)

25   mia   6.1   (last wk. 22)

26   tb   6.0   (last wk. 26)

27   oak   5.3   (last wk. 31)

28   cle   4.7   (last wk. 21)

29   phi   4.6   (last wk. 18)

30   was   4.0   (last wk. 25)

31   ind   3.7   (last wk. 30)

32   stl   1.2   (last wk. 32)

My previous week'™s game of the week, Cleveland, flopped, so I'™m down to 2-1 for games of the week.  I expect a 65% winning percentage this year, and losses are going to happen.  My total picks are 8-7 for the year.

My week 4 point spreads:

visitor / home / my point spread / the gambling public's opinion / difference

cle   bal    13.8   13.0   0.8

ten   hou    14.1   12.0   2.1

ne   buf    -5.9   -4.0   -1.9

sf   nyj    1.2   -4.0   5.2

sea   stl    -5.7   -2.5   -3.2

car   atl    14.7   7.0   7.7

min   det    3.8   4.0   -0.2

sd   kc    2.5   0.0   2.5

mia   az    3.3   6.5   -3.2

cin   jac    1.9   -2.0   3.9

oak   den    5.4   6.5   -1.1

was   tb    2.8   3.0   -0.2

no   gb    12.4   7.5   4.9

nyg   phi    -9.0   2.0   -11.0

chi   dal    8.9   3.5   5.4

For my game of week 4, it has to be the Giants over Philly.

nyg   phi    -9.0   2.0   -11.0

Philly barely squeaked past both the Ravens and Cleveland, and then they completely forgot how to play football against Arizona.  Perhaps Arizona and Kolb was a trap game, or perhaps some of the Eagles players are playing long-term injured.  If it'™s the latter, that tendency will carry over into next week.  In contrast, the Giants had an easy time against Carolina and they beat Tampa Bay.  They flopped against Dallas but that was a little while ago. 

I give Philly zero credit for their playing at home -- both the Eagles and the Giants have been terrible home teams and good road teams these past three years, sort of the anti-Baltimore in that respect.  I give the Giants extra points for having three extra days of prep time for the Philly game, with a game-day commute so short they might as well make the trip by bus or by train.  The Eagles were flying home across the country on a redeye late last Sunday night. 

Other picks:

car   atl    14.7   7.0   7.7

Carolina beating New Orleans no longer looks like such a feat, because even Kansas City can hang one on N.O.  Carolina losing to the offense-challenged Jets has the same odiferous problem.  Carolina not being able to look presentable against the Giants last week is significant.  On the other side, Atlanta has three comfortable wins, not just three wins, under its belt.  They'™re good.

Honorable mention:  San Francisco and Dallas aren'™t quite juicy enough percentage-wise for me to commit.  Meh.  Double meh given the replacement refs messing with the available statistical information for three weeks.

Postscript:  This forum lets me edit my mistakes, but as shown above, it doesn't let me succeed.

Your turns.  Call em if you dare!