WEEK TWO NFL PICKS and "Game of tthe Week"

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    WEEK TWO NFL PICKS and "Game of tthe Week"

    Sorry Tex, it's Wednesday night and someone has to go first.

     

    Week 2 power ratings and game of the week.

     

    I’m adding Atlanta and San Francisco to my list of teams that will deliberately sabotage the first couple of series of preseason week 3.  The typical M.O. is for the quarterback to toss a pick-six.  Then the defense twiddles their thumbs with straight faces while the other team marches down the field.  Atlanta, in field goal range, went for it on fourth and 2.  I respect such ingenuity.

     

     

    San Francisco beat a class act in Green Bay, at Green Bay.  That beats the local team trouncing some rinky-dink Tennessee, although an easy win is a win.  Dallas beat the Giants, and the Giants were playing consistently well the last time we looked. 

     

     

    I pay respect to the Jets, who smashed Buffalo like a bowl of eggs.  Unfortunately I gave little enough respect for Buffalo last week, who have pretty much fallen off the bottom of the list below. 

     

     

    1   sf   14.4   (last wk. 5)

     

    2   ne   14.1   (last wk. 2)

     

    3   dal   12.5   (last wk. 7)

     

    4   gb   12.3   (last wk. 1)

     

    5   bal   11.8   (last wk. 6)

     

    6   atl   11.5   (last wk. 19)

     

    7   no   11.0   (last wk. 3)

     

    8   hou   10.1   (last wk. 11)

     

    9   sd   9.9   (last wk. 10)

     

    10   nyg   9.9   (last wk. 4)

     

    11   nyj   9.2   (last wk. 15)

     

    12   chi   8.3   (last wk. 25)

     

    13   det   8.2   (last wk. 8)

     

    14   jac   7.9   (last wk. 16)

     

    15   den   7.8   (last wk. 14)

     

    16   min   7.4   (last wk. 21)

     

    17   pit   7.4   (last wk. 13)

     

    18   phi   7.2   (last wk. 27)

     

    19   cle   7.2   (last wk. 12)

     

    20   kc   7.0   (last wk. 9)

     

    21   was   6.9   (last wk. 28)

     

    22   sea   6.6   (last wk. 20)

     

    23   cin   6.4   (last wk. 18)

     

    24   car   6.1   (last wk. 23)

     

    25   ten   5.9   (last wk. 22)

     

    26   oak   5.6   (last wk. 17)

     

    27   tb   5.4   (last wk. 31)

     

    28   mia   4.4   (last wk. 24)

     

    29   az   4.0   (last wk. 30)

     

    30   ind   3.8   (last wk. 29)

     

    31   buf   3.1   (last wk. 26)

     

    32   stl   2.4   (last wk. 32)

     

     

     

    My week 2 point spread predictions:

     

     

    Visitor / Home / My points / The Gambling Public’s Points / Difference

     

    chi   gb    12.7   5.5   7.2

     

    az   ne    18.1   13.5   4.6

     

    no   car    -2.4   -2.5   0.1

     

    hou   jac    1.4   -7   8.4

     

    tb   nyg    6.8   7.5   -0.7

     

    cle   cin    1.5   7   -5.5

     

    oak   mia    -0.1   -2.5   2.4

     

    kc   buf    -1.3   3   -4.3

     

    bal   phi    -2.9   2.5   -5.4

     

    min   ind    0.5   -1.5   2.0

     

    dal   sea    -2.6   -3   0.4

     

    was   stl    -4.6   -3   -1.6

     

    ten   sd    11.1   6   5.1

     

    nyj   pit    2.5   5.5   -3.0

     

    det   sf    15.8   6.5   9.3

     

    den   atl    9.9   3   6.9

     

     

     

     

    Last week I called my game of the week comfortably against the spread, with Cleveland not being that far from an actual six point victory over Philadelphia.  I was happy with New England and the Jets exceeding my lofty expectations.  I felt duped by the preseason play of San Francisco and Atlanta.  Overall, 5-4.  Maybe my numbers will stabilize this week with a bit of real data. 

     

     

    My game of the week for week two is San Francisco to clobber Detroit.  Long road trips west tend to affect teams.  The only negative factor for SF is a potential letdown after beating Green Bay.

     

    det   sf    15.8   6.5   9.3

     

     

     

    Other calls:

     

    Green Bay may be smarting from the loss, but they’re still a hot team.  Chicago beating Indy at home might have been a win, but it wasn’t a great win.

     

    chi   gb    12.7   5.5   7.2

     

     

    Houston is playing a bit better than Jacksonville, but Jacksonville has been consistently playing reasonable football all preseason and last week also.  As a home underdog with a chip on their shoulder, Jacksonville is likely to play as if the division crown were up for grabs. 

     

    hou   jac    1.4   -7   8.4

     

     

    I’m going to bail out of making a Denver-Atlanta call because my numbers are shaky on both teams right now, especially on Atlanta.  Peyton Manning and the Colts were originators of the “try to lose in preseason” movement in the NFL, so they get a caution flag also for week 2.

     

     

    Blowout predictions are always shaky.  As a rule I’d rather have an unknown underdog than a comfortable overdog.  New England is slightly likely to overtop the big point spread but it’s nowhere near my standards for a significant call.

     

     
  2. This post has been removed.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: WEEK TWO NFL PICKS and

    agree on all picks except ...

     

    Chi  6  to cover.  Bears offense too improved to spot these points plus pack seems strangely beatable lately.

    hou -7.  this Texans team seems to have 3 phases that can beat you.  Jax not quite there yet.

    PIT -6.  This is the bounce back g.o.w.  Pittsburgh is too tough at home for schizo jets.

    tenn 6.  more likely both teams to be 1-1 after this close game imo...

    Finally ... Hate the 13.5 spread for patriots against sneaky good Arizona team.  Could see a comfortable 2-score win, but more like 9-10 points.  Would be OK with being wrong on this one.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: WEEK TWO NFL PICKS and

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    agree on all picks except ...

    Chi  6  to cover.  Bears offense too improved to spot these points plus pack seems strangely beatable lately.

    hou -7.  this Texans team seems to have 3 phases that can beat you.  Jax not quite there yet.

    PIT -6.  This is the bounce back g.o.w.  Pittsburgh is too tough at home for schizo jets.

    tenn 6.  more likely both teams to be 1-1 after this close game imo...

    Finally ... Hate the 13.5 spread for patriots against sneaky good Arizona team.  Could see a comfortable 2-score win, but more like 9-10 points.  Would be OK with being wrong on this one.

    [/QUOTE]

    When a good team is wildly beatable in preseason, they're probably faking it.  When a team is completely unbeatable in preseason, they're going to do the same thing in the regular season.   San Francisco is at #1 in my rankings because they're really good, not because Green Bay is an average team.

    Caution on Tennessee:  on the NationalFootballPost.com, Vegas Insider studied the "Patriots Effect".  Teams that get clobbered by the Pats generally do bad against the spread the next week.  In this case, Jake Locker can't practice because he got hit.

    After reading up on Arizona, their QB was holding his knee and carted off in the middle of the fourth quarter.  Kevin Kolb, the backup, was horrid in preseason.  My stats don't pick up the effect of quarterbacks that go down in the fourth quarter.  I'd go with the college-sized blowout.

     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: WEEK TWO NFL PICKS and

    We shall see...  It's the NFL .  surprises are the norm.  One  other game I didn't mention is Cincinnati  to get its act together to spot the 7 points.  Dalton protects the ball this week and gets some big plays.

     
  7. This post has been removed.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: WEEK TWO NFL PICKS and

    I have Green Bay by 12.7 points, and they're ahead by 13 with 4 minutes to go.  Looking good!

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. This post has been removed.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: WEEK TWO NFL PICKS and

    I'm going to have to go with the Pats to cover big.  My statistics don't pick up anything when quarterbacks are injured in the fourth quarter.  From what I can read, Skelton really has no chance to play.

    Kevin Kolb, the backup, was absolutely terrible this preseason whenever he got pressured.  The job was his to lose and he lost it.  Unfortunately for the Arizona Cardinals, they have two backups playing tackle and both look to be utterly incompetent at stopping the pass rush.

     

     

Share