Re: What Brady really did in 42&46.
posted at 1/10/2013 8:58 AM EST
In response to TFB12's comment:
Lots to comment on this one.
1. So in the first angle you clearly see that brady is setting up and starts to let the ball go just as branch plants his route and turns around. Can we agree on that?
Brady is in the middle of his throwing motion at the end of 0:01 when Branch's feet are planted and just in front of the back of the arrow next to the "40". This corresponds to the moment at 0:08 when Welker's right foot is down just before the 36 yard line and his head is turned.
2. On the 2nd angle when Branch does what I said in #1, the outside corner back covering Branch is continuing to go back as Branch does his plant and turn. So at this point Brady has already determined where the ball is going because he is just about to release the ball or has just released the ball. He didn't know the Outside CB was going to stop for a split second, had the CB not hesitated for that split second he would have picked off or batted down the outside shoulder throw. So that was a bad read right there, TFB got lucky the CB did stop for a split second before turning upfield.
Amazing how quick you are to look for fault in someone you claim to idolize. Brady is the best at reading coverages in the NFL. The Giants secondary were screaming at each other before the snap, even the announcers mentioned it before the snap. The fact is #23 was playing man on Branch, and Brady knew it. Correct read.
3. Again, on the 2nd angle, if you agree with #1 then notice where #26 is when Brady releases the ball. Welker is pulling away from #26 and #21 just enters the picture and takes the angle to make a tackle on Welker as if it is going to be an inside shoulder pass.
If you go to 0:08 where I indicate in my response to #1, Welker is indeed at this moment gaining separation down the field from #26 - but #26 is only half a step behind him, and still covering Welker to the inside. The nearest CB is playing man on Welker to the inside, so Brady threw to the outside. How is there even any debate about this?
4. As Welker is running his route he clearly sees the outside CB running with him, Welker turns his head and looks for the ball on the inside, perfect route as he had no idea the outside CB was going to make that split second hesitation.
The outside corner was playing man on Branch. Maybe Welker didn't see this and that's why he ran the wrong route. If so, it's Welker's fault.
I don't care what Defense the Giants were running on this play, you run your route according to what the defenders do and Welker did that. He ran the correct route, too bad the pass wasn't where it was supposed to be.
I don't understand - you don't care what defense the Giants were running, but you run your route based on what the defenders do? Actually you run your routes based on anticipation - Brady anticipated, correctly, that #23 would play man on Branch. Brady also saw for a fact at the time he was releasing that #26 was playing man on Welker to the inside and that the Safety was along Welker's route to the inside. So he threw a perfect outside shoulder pass. There really is no debate about this.
Again, the moment you describe is when Brady is in the middle of his release motion. What really matters in evaluating Brady's decision is what happened right before this moment - which was #26 playing tight man on Welker to the inside.
The only reason why Welker was open to the inside is because at 0:09, well after the ball is thrown, #26 hesitates as if expecting a turn inside by Welker. This happened after Brady threw the ball and is therefore completely irrelevant to his decision making.
On another note - how is it that you have all these pics from later on in the route, but can't post any of Welker around the 38 yard line?