what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from CommyContrarianOnTwitter. Show CommyContrarianOnTwitter's posts

    what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    shocking stat.. just heard on Around the Horn... wow!

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.

    [/QUOTE]


    Disagree.    It definitely points to a specific formula that has helped win playoff games.  A 2 yard rushing touchdown is more of a correlation to victory than a 2 yard passing TD , I would surmise.   But I do agree that it is a weird stat.  Meaning Brady wins games.  period.  All types of games.  But looking at the entire body of work,  The GAME MANAGER Brady closes the deal better than the FANTASY STAT Brady.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    Game manager Brady makes the appearance when you have a good running back and OC which allows for these plays to get mixed in.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RogerLT. Show RogerLT's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In the 2001 playoffs they were also 1-0 when Bledsoe threw a td and 1-0 when Brady ran for a td so stats can be twisted any way you want.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    It means Tom better take a sack when he sees someone wide open in the endzone Sunday I guess.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to coolade2's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.




    Disagree.    It definitely points to a specific formula that has helped win playoff games.  A 2 yard rushing touchdown is more of a correlation to victory than a 2 yard passing TD , I would surmise.   But I do agree that it is a weird stat.  Meaning Brady wins games.  period.  All types of games.  But looking at the entire body of work,  The GAME MANAGER Brady closes the deal better than the FANTASY STAT Brady.

    [/QUOTE]

    Wait so Coolade 4-0 when no TDs thrown equals formula but 5-0 with 3+ TDs means nothing? 5>4 last time I checked and how is a 2yrd TD = win while a 2 yrd pass TD doesn't? Is there style points I was unaware of? I agree I like a more balanced Pats team but you can't claim one then turn around and discount what Z said

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from 83. Show 83's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    Means you dont need TB. 

    Mark Sanchez could win with this team.

     

    Peyton 6-0 in rematches. What does that mean?

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to PatsEng's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to coolade2's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Disagree.    It definitely points to a specific formula that has helped win playoff games.  A 2 yard rushing touchdown is more of a correlation to victory than a 2 yard passing TD , I would surmise.   But I do agree that it is a weird stat.  Meaning Brady wins games.  period.  All types of games.  But looking at the entire body of work,  The GAME MANAGER Brady closes the deal better than the FANTASY STAT Brady.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Wait so Coolade 4-0 when no TDs thrown equals formula but 5-0 with 3+ TDs means nothing? 5>4 last time I checked and how is a 2yrd TD = win while a 2 yrd pass TD doesn't? Is there style points I was unaware of? I agree I like a more balanced Pats team but you can't claim one then turn around and discount what Z said

    [/QUOTE]


    Winning is bottom line , for sure.   You can win different ways.   But in the POSTSEASON,  you need to recalibrate if you are a passing team.    Weis knew this.  i.e. Dillon.  McD and Obie didn't get it as much.   Hard to resist calling the plays you think (pass<------>Brady) are going to work.   Sucks when the other team knows its coming and sack his aasz huh....? 

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from CommyContrarianOnTwitter. Show CommyContrarianOnTwitter's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.

    [/QUOTE]


    Disagree.    It definitely points to a specific formula that has helped win playoff games.  A 2 yard rushing touchdown is more of a correlation to victory than a 2 yard passing TD , I would surmise.   But I do agree that it is a weird stat.  Meaning Brady wins games.  period.  All types of games.  But looking at the entire body of work,  The GAME MANAGER Brady closes the deal better than the FANTASY STAT Brady.

    [/QUOTE]


    +10.. been saying it for years.. old way made us soft and we constatly got outhit and outballed.. no more. we took away indy's will, manhood as they begged for mercy.. can c us doing the same to broncs.. its a winning if unsexy formula. all the guys love it, even tb. makes u a manly team. cant wait to c us against san fran (moving away from the sea chicks).... our old style would have zero chance of a ring even if we somehow won the afc.. this style can beat either seattle and NO...

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?


    That means BB builds great football teams, but we already knew that.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to PatsEng's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to coolade2's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Disagree.    It definitely points to a specific formula that has helped win playoff games.  A 2 yard rushing touchdown is more of a correlation to victory than a 2 yard passing TD , I would surmise.   But I do agree that it is a weird stat.  Meaning Brady wins games.  period.  All types of games.  But looking at the entire body of work,  The GAME MANAGER Brady closes the deal better than the FANTASY STAT Brady.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Wait so Coolade 4-0 when no TDs thrown equals formula but 5-0 with 3+ TDs means nothing? 5>4 last time I checked and how is a 2yrd TD = win while a 2 yrd pass TD doesn't? Is there style points I was unaware of? I agree I like a more balanced Pats team but you can't claim one then turn around and discount what Z said

    [/QUOTE]


    Winning is bottom line , for sure.   You can win different ways.   But in the POSTSEASON,  you need to recalibrate if you are a passing team.    Weis knew this.  i.e. Dillon.  McD and Obie didn't get it as much.   Hard to resist calling the plays you think (pass<------>Brady) are going to work.   Sucks when the other team knows its coming and sack his aasz huh....? 

    [/QUOTE]


    nobody touched this post...lol.

    It's a bit harsh and edgy but mostly its about keeping the other team off balance and not being arrogant to think you can just trot out your base spread that you have run for decades and think you are scaring anybody.......   major brainfaht.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    It means nothing.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ccnsd. Show ccnsd's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It means Tom better take a sack when he sees someone wide open in the endzone Sunday I guess.

    [/QUOTE]


    Post of the day!Smile

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to coolade2's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.

     




    Disagree.    It definitely points to a specific formula that has helped win playoff games.  A 2 yard rushing touchdown is more of a correlation to victory than a 2 yard passing TD , I would surmise.   But I do agree that it is a weird stat.  Meaning Brady wins games.  period.  All types of games.  But looking at the entire body of work,  The GAME MANAGER Brady closes the deal better than the FANTASY STAT Brady.

     




    Actually, there isn't much to disagree about. Those correlations have already been figured. Running touchdowns correlate with winning at .41 and passing touchdowns at .55. All in all, the difference isn't pronounced, as both are close to .5 and neither is that far in the grand scheme, from the other. But it is sufficient enough to say that running touchdowns are not more valuable than passing touchdowns. In fact, most running statistics do not correlate with winning at all. Rushing attempts, ironically, are among the lowest across studies. Peaking at the .5 area in some measures, and faling way off the charts at .18. 

    There really are no "individual" stats that correlate with winning at all. In fact, even passer rating, which is a very high correlation, needs to be "adjusted" in studies to take into account sacks before it starts really working at .8 or higher.

    The only "blanket" statistics that show winning are things that are obvious, like TD/Dr and Points/Dr. And if one correlates more with winning it's this: the team that passes better wins the majority of the time, while the team that runs better wins in a coin toss. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It means nothing.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agree...  Like the stat in which every championship game in which the Pats were underdogs, they won!!!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to agcsbill's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It means nothing.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agree...  Like the stat in which every championship game in which the Pats were underdogs, they won!!!

    [/QUOTE]

    Ha. Vegas odds do match with winning about as well as some stats.

    I can't imagine a coach in the NFL concerning himself with "how" his team scores, running vs passing unless the team has a documented inability to score in either way, and it is hurting their redzone percentages. At which point, you are really just improving areas of your team to increase your TD% across the board: which always correlates to winning. Teams that go the distance and bring back six points win the game more often than teams that don't, with only a few outliers: games where a team scores a 5-6 field goals and only one touchdown against a team that scores a couple touchdowns (the losing team might have a higher  touchdown% but would have a lower points-per-drive and overall scoring %).

    But measuring the value of a rushing touchdown versus a passing touchdown? What a waste of time! There is way too much to be thinking about the week of a game in the way of match-ups on a player to player basis, and package to package basis. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to coolade2's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.

     




    Disagree.    It definitely points to a specific formula that has helped win playoff games.  A 2 yard rushing touchdown is more of a correlation to victory than a 2 yard passing TD , I would surmise.   But I do agree that it is a weird stat.  Meaning Brady wins games.  period.  All types of games.  But looking at the entire body of work,  The GAME MANAGER Brady closes the deal better than the FANTASY STAT Brady.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Actually, there isn't much to disagree about. Those correlations have already been figured. Running touchdowns correlate with winning at .41 and passing touchdowns at .55. All in all, the difference isn't pronounced, as both are close to .5 and neither is that far in the grand scheme, from the other. But it is sufficient enough to say that running touchdowns are not more valuable than passing touchdowns. In fact, most running statistics do not correlate with winning at all. Rushing attempts, ironically, are among the lowest across studies. Peaking at the .5 area in some measures, and faling way off the charts at .18. 

    There really are no "individual" stats that correlate with winning at all. In fact, even passer rating, which is a very high correlation, needs to be "adjusted" in studies to take into account sacks before it starts really working at .8 or higher.

    The only "blanket" statistics that show winning are things that are obvious, like TD/Dr and Points/Dr. And if one correlates more with winning it's this: the team that passes better wins the majority of the time, while the team that runs better wins in a coin toss. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Its an interesting argument...   Since there are all the underlying layers in football ,  many of which are psychological.  the point I was surmising which would be a difficult stat to pin down was the 2 -3 yard rushing touchdown vs. the 2-3 yard passing TD.  running it in implies winning the line of scrimmage which if statistically could be measured  in a game (offensive/defensive  hog index combined  perhaps  ---chff.com) would likely correlate around 63-67% to winning.  better than the .5 number which makes it  statistically relevant.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to PatsEng's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to coolade2's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Disagree.    It definitely points to a specific formula that has helped win playoff games.  A 2 yard rushing touchdown is more of a correlation to victory than a 2 yard passing TD , I would surmise.   But I do agree that it is a weird stat.  Meaning Brady wins games.  period.  All types of games.  But looking at the entire body of work,  The GAME MANAGER Brady closes the deal better than the FANTASY STAT Brady.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Wait so Coolade 4-0 when no TDs thrown equals formula but 5-0 with 3+ TDs means nothing? 5>4 last time I checked and how is a 2yrd TD = win while a 2 yrd pass TD doesn't? Is there style points I was unaware of? I agree I like a more balanced Pats team but you can't claim one then turn around and discount what Z said

    [/QUOTE]


    Winning is bottom line , for sure.   You can win different ways.   But in the POSTSEASON,  you need to recalibrate if you are a passing team.    Weis knew this.  i.e. Dillon.  McD and Obie didn't get it as much.   Hard to resist calling the plays you think (pass<------>Brady) are going to work.   Sucks when the other team knows its coming and sack his aasz huh....? 

    [/QUOTE]


    nobody touched this post...lol.

    It's a bit harsh and edgy but mostly its about keeping the other team off balance and not being arrogant to think you can just trot out your base spread that you have run for decades and think you are scaring anybody.......   major brainfaht.

    [/QUOTE]

    Brady also took a couple sacks Sunday ... one on a play action pass. 

    PA passing success and running are almost disconnected. Most of the "deception" comes from how well the line sells the run by firing off as if they are run blocking. If there is clear offensive line penetration, then you'll see defenders coming in. 

    There have been exhaustive studies done on this showing that some of the best play action teams are actually very poor at running and run less frequently, while some of the worst play action teams have some of the most prolific rushing attacks. 

    Play action, inasmuch as it is a kind of "trick" play, relys on visual deception more than a defender's memory. Moreover, insofar as defenders are actually coached *not* to look into the backfield ... the hand-off/running back action is less important anyhow. Selling it at the line by making it look like the team is already gaining yardage is huge; having a QB who can execute the passing aspect well is also huge. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: what does it mean we are 4-0 when TB has ZERO TDs in PLAYOFF games?

    In response to coolade2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to zbellino's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to coolade2's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    About the same thing it means that New England is 5-0 when Brady throws three or more touchdowns. Like passing attempts , rushing attempts and most isolated statistics it‘s meaningless. The only numbers that actually correlate with winning are efficiency stats for a team. You can't tie success to one player, position, or phase of the game.

     




    Disagree.    It definitely points to a specific formula that has helped win playoff games.  A 2 yard rushing touchdown is more of a correlation to victory than a 2 yard passing TD , I would surmise.   But I do agree that it is a weird stat.  Meaning Brady wins games.  period.  All types of games.  But looking at the entire body of work,  The GAME MANAGER Brady closes the deal better than the FANTASY STAT Brady.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Actually, there isn't much to disagree about. Those correlations have already been figured. Running touchdowns correlate with winning at .41 and passing touchdowns at .55. All in all, the difference isn't pronounced, as both are close to .5 and neither is that far in the grand scheme, from the other. But it is sufficient enough to say that running touchdowns are not more valuable than passing touchdowns. In fact, most running statistics do not correlate with winning at all. Rushing attempts, ironically, are among the lowest across studies. Peaking at the .5 area in some measures, and faling way off the charts at .18. 

    There really are no "individual" stats that correlate with winning at all. In fact, even passer rating, which is a very high correlation, needs to be "adjusted" in studies to take into account sacks before it starts really working at .8 or higher.

    The only "blanket" statistics that show winning are things that are obvious, like TD/Dr and Points/Dr. And if one correlates more with winning it's this: the team that passes better wins the majority of the time, while the team that runs better wins in a coin toss. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Its an interesting argument...   Since there are all the underlying layers in football ,  many of which are psychological.  the point I was surmising which would be a difficult stat to pin down was the 2 -3 yard rushing touchdown vs. the 2-3 yard passing TD.  running it in implies winning the line of scrimmage which if statistically could be measured  in a game (offensive/defensive  hog index combined  perhaps  ---chff.com) would likely correlate around 63-67% to winning.  better than the .5 number which makes it  statistically relevant.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes! 

    Runing and winning at the LOS are huge partners. But running is a signal that you are winning the battles.

    The one thing running does better than passing is protecting the football. If a team is winning the running battle through the first few quarters it can be a signal that they are winning that battle. 

    Also, if a team has a high "HOG" index they are also winning the passing battle typically as well. 

    My point, never, has been that teams shouldn't run if they can, just that teams shouldn't keep running at a high rate if they cannot. Who wants to see runs in 3rd and 8 scenarios? And that Bill Belichick always wants to run first, but hasn't been afforded the luxury. 

    I think one thing, which correlations can't explain well, is the "strategic" importance of being able to run when the other team knows you are going to run. 

    While there isn't a strong correlation to winning Time-of-possession, there is a strong correlation with winning points per possession. Running at the end of games, with a lead, can "freeze" the number of chances an opponent has to raise their overall score. 

    It would be really difficult to track. Most of the game is decided by then, and you already have a winner and loser slated because of the score. But being able to move the ball effectively on the ground late in the game can eat the remaining clock up. 

    This isn't the same as running during a game, which really doesn't chew up much more clock than passing: in those scenarios, you are best off doing whatever gets field position and first downs, because sustained drives give you a better chance at having long drives (contrasting the 2011 Patriots who had a higher TOP per drive than the 2001 and 2003 Pats and an equal TOP per drive to the 2004 Pats is a good example). 

    But concerted running, late in the game, converting a 3rd and 4 with a run that everyone knows is coming, is a huge strategic advantage that cannot be measured. 

     

     
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