2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses).

    There will be some arb induced raises:
    Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb 2 of 3)
    Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4)
    Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4)
    Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)
    Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3)

    There are options:
    Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out)
    Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached)
    A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here)

    There are FreeAgents:
    JD Drew    $14M  
    Ortiz          $12.5M
    Papelbon  $10.33M
    Varitek      $2M
    Wakefield $2M
    Bedard      $1M

    I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below.

    I think Theo does not give Scutaro the club option, so if Scutty is back, it will be at $3M. I think Wheeler is not given his option, and I am not sure what the deal is with Miller anymore.

    I think the arb induced raises will not be very large. None of the players are in their last arb year. Ellsbury and Salty will get nice raises, but not grand. Albers, Aceves, and Bard will do OK also.

    My numbers may be wrong here, and my projections as well, but I'll say the arb guys get a total of $7M more in 2012 than in 2011. If Scutty ($7M on luxury tax role) and Wheeler ($3M) do not come back, that saves us about $10M. Assuming we bring Miller back, my guess is we will be evened out on arbs and options.

    My projections on Free Agents:
    Drew ($14M) walks
    Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $20M/2 plus incentives
    Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets the type A compensation)
    VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1
    Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives.

    Free agent net cost: $27M gain (lose Paps and Drew).

    Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25-30M to spend on these holes (Possible in house solutions):

    Closer: (Bard? Jenks?) 
    SS: (Aviles, Lowrie, Iglesias)
    RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac)
    RP: (several options)

    If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster:

    C: Salty/Vtek
    1B: AGon
    2B: Pedey
    3B: Youk
    SS: Aviles/Lowrie
    LF: Craw/DMac
    CF: Ells
    RF: Reddick/Kalish
    DH: Papi
    (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias)

    SP1 Beckett
    SP2 Lester
    SP3 Buch
    SP4 Lack
    SP5 Wake
    SP6 Dice or Miller
    RP1 Bard
    RP2 Jenks
    RP3 Albers
    RP4 Aceves
    RP5 Morales
    RP6 Doubront
    (several other options)

    There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club.

    Your thoughts?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    m
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from frankn. Show frankn's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    Love all the money stats- ZZZZZZZZ.  We're not all accountants.  Papi and Paps will both stay.  Papi because it's beneficial for both and he can't become a Yankee.  I would have personally run both Beckett and Paps out of town last year.  I was wrong and desrve to eat crow.  Beckett already has his contract and Pap will get his and the opprtunity for many more jigs.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimedfred. Show jimedfred's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    Let Scutaro, Drew,McDonald, & Wake go.Re-sign Tek year/ $2.0.
    Try to keep Ortiz @ 2 years/ $ 20 million, keep Bedard @ $2-3 million PLUS incentives.

    Go after Cuddyer or another r/h outfielder ( Upton in my DREAMS , not happening ).
    Miller, Weiland, Doubront as insurance starters.
    And offer Papelbon 3 years at $ 42 million, otherwise try for Heath Bell.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    I would love to consider these interesting dilemnas, but I can't get past

     Ellsbury $2.4M > ? (Arb 2 of 3)

    without my soul transporting back to college and making me want to skip class.  Moon, I love you man.  I'm sorry I can never get through the numbers and little mathy symbols.  i would love to engage in these discussions.  
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    Let Scutaro, Drew,McDonald, & Wake go.Re-sign Tek year/ $2.0.
    Try to keep Ortiz @ 2 years/ $ 20 million, keep Bedard @ $2-3 million PLUS incentives..

    I think Bedard will get more than that if he stays healthy through this year.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    In Response to Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions:
    [QUOTE]I would love to consider these interesting dilemnas, but I can't get past   Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb 2 of 3) without my soul transporting back to college and making me want to skip class.  Moon, I love you man.  I'm sorry I can never get through the numbers and little mathy symbols.  

    $2.4M is Ellasbury's deal for this year. ">?" means what will he make next year ($2.4 M to what?). He will get a nice raise, but not huge.

    (Arb 2 of 3) means this winter Ellsbury will have his 2nd arbitration year with one more to go. His second arb out of a total of 3. Some players get more than 3 arbs.

    i would love to engage in these discussions.  

    Ask away. I love talking this kind of offseason stuff.

    Posted by SpacemanEephus[/QUOTE]
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    Moon - That was my first thought re: Bedard.  I don't think anyone will dispute he's a good pitcher when he's on the mound and with a team like the RS, i.e. run support, he should have a pretty nifty W-L tally.  I'd love to see him back with an incentive laden contract ... $5m + $500k/start over 20 GS?

    I'll put my $.02 out there and say that Papi & Tek come back and Wake may not ... chances are much lower if they sign Bedard or another starter.  As much as I love the work Aceves has done out of the pen, am I the only one wondering if he might be a used as a starter next year (assuming they don't get Bedard or another SP)?  Lastly, I'd have to assume they will be looking for a RH OFer in the off season.  Only question in my mind is if it will be an attempt at a long term fit or a 1-2 year patch.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    In Response to 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions:
    [QUOTE]According to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Sox started this season at a Payroll of about $164M (counting pro-rated signing bonuses). There will be some arb induced raises: Ellsbury $2.4M /> ? (Arb 2 of 3) Albers    $875K > ? (Arb 3 of 4) Salty      $750K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Aceves  $650K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Bard       $505K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) DMac      $470K > ? (Arb 1 of 4) Lowrie    $450K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) Morales $424K > ? (Arb 1 of 3) There are options: Scutaro  $6M club option/$3M player option ($1.5M buy out) Wheeler $3M club option (guaranteed if 65 games pitched reached) A. Miller  $3m club option ? (some gray area here) There are FreeAgents: JD Drew    $14M   Ortiz          $12.5M Papelbon  $10.33M Varitek      $2M Wakefield $2M Bedard      $1M I think it is obvious that Drew will not be back. The other free agents will probably get offers from Theo. Who will be type A and type B might have something to do with how much Theo offers, but I think he will make fair market offers to all but JD (and maybe Bedard). See below. I think Theo does not give Scutaro the club option, so if Scutty is back, it will be at $3M. I think Wheeler is not given his option, and I am not sure what the deal is with Miller anymore. I think the arb induced raises will not be very large. None of the players are in their last arb year. Ellsbury and Salty will get nice raises, but not grand. Albers, Aceves, and Bard will do OK also. My numbers may be wrong here, and my projections as well, but I'll say the arb guys get a total of $7M more in 2012 than in 2011. If Scutty ($7M on luxury tax role) and Wheeler ($3M) do not come back, that saves us about $10M. Assuming we bring Miller back, my guess is we will be evened out on arbs and options. My projections on Free Agents: Drew ($14M) walks Papi ($12.5M) signs with Boston for $20M/2 plus incentives Paps (10.33M) walks (Theo gets the type A compensation) VTek ($2M) signs with Boston (perhaps a lifetime services deal) $2M/1 Wake ($2.5M) signs with Boston for $2.5M plus incentives. Free agent net cost: $27M gain (lose Paps and Drew). Assuming we keep the salary budget about the same as 2011, we'll have about $25-30M to spend on these holes (Possible in house solutions): Closer: (Bard? Jenks?)  SS: (Aviles, Lowrie, Iglesias) RF: (Reddick, Kalish, DMac) RP: (several options) If we sign no FAs (not likely) and let Papelbon and Wheeler walk, this could be our 2012 roster: C: Salty/Vtek 1B: AGon 2B: Pedey 3B: Youk SS: Aviles/Lowrie LF: Craw/DMac CF: Ells RF: Reddick/Kalish DH: Papi (Possibly Lavarnway or Iglesias) SP1 Beckett SP2 Lester SP3 Buch SP4 Lack SP5 Wake SP6 Dice or Miller RP1 Bard RP2 Jenks RP3 Albers RP4 Aceves RP5 Morales RP6 Doubront (several other options) There's a chance Papi walks and Paps stays. That could give Lavarnway a shot at an everyday job on the big club. Your thoughts?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon - I don't believe the Sox, if they so choose, have to accept the player option. I think the process is as follows:

    1. Team option first. The Red Sox will not excercise it.
    2. If Scutaro excercises his option, the Red Sox can either accept or decline.
    3. If they accept, they have him for $3M, if they decline, they buy him out for $1.5M.

    I believe this is how it works.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Tropical-Nation. Show Tropical-Nation's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    Wake will get resigned and will continue to pitch till he breaks Cy "Award" Young and Roger "Spaceneedle" Clemens record, even if Papi has to carry him out to the mound and hold him in place for 5 innings......
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    Moon - I don't believe the Sox, if they so choose, have to accept the player option. I think the process is as follows:

    1. Team option first. The Red Sox will not excercise it.
    2. If Scutaro excercises his option, the Red Sox can either accept or decline.
    3. If they accept, they have him for $3M, if they decline, they buy him out for $1.5M.

    I believe this is how it works..

    I disagree, but am not sure.

    You raise a good question.

    Either way, why would Scutaro take the $3M deal when he can get the $1.5M plus what he gets elsewhere. He should get more than $1.5M/yr with his next signing, so it would total more than $3M/yr.

    I think Scutaro is gone after 2011.

    2012 SS: Aviles, Lowrie & Iglesias
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    I do think Scutaro could be back even if the Sox decline his club option.  Taking the $3M may be somewhat of a hometown discount, but he may have a hard time finding a multi-year deal from another team.  The bottom line is that he's getting old.

    I think the money they get from Drew's contract could cover the arbitraion for Ellsbury, Bard, Albers and Aceves.

    Also, don't overlook the pay raises for guys like Pedroia, Youkilis, Lester and Buchholz for 2012.  The contracts do escalate .

    I believe the Ortiz decision is much more complicated than people make it out to be.  I can just see Theo having issues with extending Ortiz for a 2nd season beyond 2012.  I think someone like Youklis would be very attractive in the DH role if a guy like Middlebrooks emerges next season.  I do think they figure out a way to bring Ortiz back though.

    Pitching depth has been a major issue this season.  There really aren't many great starters coming up through the system.  I think that may change next season but at some point, the Sox may need to go out and get a vetern guy for the #5 spot.  I can see Wakefield finally hanging it up after this season... but then again, who knows?

    Papelbon is gone IMO.  Closers just aren't worth breaking bank for and I think Theo knows that.

    Some intruiging names that I can see the Sox looking into:

    SP's:  Mark Buehrle (if they decide to make a somewhat larger investment), Chris Young (low-risk, high reward)

    Relievers:  Matt Capps (as a potential Pap replacement/setup guy), Ryan Madson,

    OF:  Cody Ross... I can see another year of a platoon RF until the Sox figure out the long-term plan there.  Ross could give them the RH bat to couple with what's looking to be Reddick and potentially Kalish.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: 2012 Big Sox Payroll Decisions

    If we have starter depth issues, why would we not want Wake back at $2M/yr?

     

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