Last year, I experimented with trying to do some projections, channeling my inner Bill James. From that free agent class, I tinkered with some numbers and fudged away, in order to see how I felt certain pitchers would perform in the following year. These numbers are all buried somewhere deep in the archives of this site (and also on Softy’s hard drive). The following are my projections made before the season, followed by the actual 2013 season numbers from the same pitchers in parentheses.
Francisco Liriano: 3.99ERA 1.46WHIP (3.02ERA 1.22WHIP)
Ryan Dempster 4.34ERA 1.46WHIP (4.57ERA 1.45WHIP)
Kyle Lohse 4.40ERA 1.45WHIP (3.35ERA 1.17WHIP)
Anibal Sanchez 3.76ERA 1.35WHIP (2.57ERA 1.15WHIP)
Edwin Jackson 4.37ERA 1.47WHIP (4.98ERA 1.46WHIP)
Joe Saunders 5.22ERA 1.59WHIP (5.26ERA 1.60WHIP)
Chris Capuano 4.51ERA 1.42WHIP (4.26ERA 1.41WHIP)
I also ran Marcum, but he fell apart to early. I figured him for a 4.23ERA and 1.35WHIP, and he had a 5.29ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. But as he only pitched 78IP, and probably some or all of that with an injury, I am just going to discount him altogether. If I did not predict him getting injured, I missed the most obvious outcome of all.
Clearly I underestimated just how good Sanchez, Liriano, and Lohse would be. On the other hand, I pretty much nailed Dempster, Capuano and especially Saunders. (I am on to you, Saunders!!)
Jackson I will consider close enough to call a victory, especially since I don’t have enough experience to know good from bad projections just yet. Got his WHIP, but my ERA was over half a run too low. Although if you eliminate his awful April and his last start in a very meaningless game (where he got meaninglessly shelled), his ERA in the middle stretch was 4.38 with a WHIP of 1.37. While that goes beyond cherry-picking to me, although I am going to cling to this as being some evidence he was on track for my numbers. Clinging? That’s me!
Ben – take me seriously!! I think I am on to something!! My advice doesn’t come cheap, but it does come cheaper than a bad free agent signing!! And if you don’t, several other mystery teams are already expressing interest in my services. (I learned that tactic from Scott Boras.)