Re: A Better Understanding of Value: Depreciation
posted at 12/21/2012 4:30 PM EST
In response to Alibiike's comment:
In response to rkarp's comment:
In response to Softlaw1's comment:
Dempster is now on the books at 26.5 million. There isn't a team in baseball that would accept that trade value at more than half that amount guaranteed. This bum depreciated 50% the moment Cherry drove him off the lot. Even at 33% depreciation, it simply shows that Dempster never had a 26.5 million market in the first place.
Shane is now on the books at nearly 40 million. There isn't a team in baseball that would agree to pay even half that. There was never any 39 million market for Shane.
Cherry was bidding against himself, without a doubt. Bluffed on a big scale.
It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out that there was far superior value and fit than Shane at nearly 40 million, or the 20 million over 4 years that was his real market value.
As for Dumpster, he is a fit for pitching depth, but his value ends at one year and about 13 million.
Larry, if you read Softlaw like Most Red Sox management, please note that hiring an accountant will get you better labor acquisition and management value than InEpstein and Cherry.
I dont understand or agree with your accounting of Dempster based on the contracts afforded Sanchez, Jackson and Haren.
Your assigned value is assuming that Dempster will not pitch to 180-200 innings. Fair enough. But if he does, he will be worth the cost. I dont expect Dempster to be the pitcher he was with the Cubs last year. An arguement could be made that he was the best pitcher in all of baseball for the month of June. But I do expect 200 innings, 12-15 wins, and an era sub 4.00. If Dempster attains that, he is an exceptional value. Factor in his professionalism and willing to share that with players like De La Roas, Webster, Doubrant and Barnes as they come thru, how can you not like this signing for the SOx?
Dempster had 12-15 wins 5 times in his 15 year career, all, i might add, in the light-hitting NL. He owns a career 1.44 WHIP.
He went 7-3 for Texas, albeit with a 5.09 ERA and 25 BBs in 69 IPs. Prorated over 200 IPs, that 72 BBs and a recipe for disaster.
He's had 9 seasons where he had 9 seasons where he had 25 starts or more. In those 9 seaosn, he's went 111-92. Trying to add his rookie year, and the years he was a closer, as if they should be treated as if he was a starter, is feeble. It makes it seem like you are grasping for straws. Even your 1.44 Whip is incorrect, and all you had to do was to copy and paste.
I didn't even care for the signing, but if my hobby was bashing all things Red Sox, I would try to be more logical.